Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Abandoned Teams
One of the few unpleasant aspects of fantasy football is the fact that GMs abandon teams. Sometimes people are active until they see no chance at the playoffs, but sometimes they seem to draft teams just for practice and abandon them right away. One of the easiest fixes is to have an entry fee, which, in theory anyway, should insure that the GM stays active to get his money's worth. Sometimes this is not an option. This leads to a dilemma; do you leave those teams with empty roster slots and players who are on IR, or do you make roster changes every week? And yes, for the techies among you, this brings to mind shades of the Prime Directive. One way is just no fun, as in the Back Alley Knife Fight, where every game should count, but those of us facing the dead teams know we have an automatic win. On the flip side I'm in a league where the commissioner makes the roster adjustments and although I don't think he did anything wrong, I did feel a little weird when he adjusted my opponent's roster the week I was playing them in a playoff run. Unfortunately I don't have a fix for this. I just know that a nice handful of GMs are not getting re-invited next year. In one of my leagues, it could be half the owners! And if this should happen again, I think I will err on the side of interference, because watching pathetic line-ups late in the season is too demoralizing.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
The Late Drafts Experiment: Wow!
This year I had more time on my hands than I expected around playoff time (ahem). So I took a closer look at my performance this year. Specifically, I wanted to see whether the time of year the teams are drafted affected my performance.
Um, you might want to be sitting for this.
Team: Regular Season Placement/Championship Placement
Team 1: 1/1
Team 2: 1/1
Team 3: 1/1
Team 4: 1/1
Team 5: 1/1
Team 6: 3/1
Team 7: 3/1
Team 8: 4/1
Team 9: 3/2
Team A: 3/2
Team B: 4/2
Team C: 5
Team D: 6
Team E: 9
Summary Results: I drafted 14 teams after the scoring for week 1 had been completed, with the bulk of the teams drafted after week 4 had been closed. Out of the 14 teams drafted, 11 made the playoffs, and all 11 teams reached the championship game. Only 3 of the 11 teams lost their championship game, and one was by 0.02 points. A total of 3 of the original 14 teams drafted did not make the playoffs, all of those teams were abandoned as soon as this was clear and in all such cases the league was public. All of the teams drafted in private leagues, um, kicked ass. While I can not produce an exact Yahoo rating from this, I know for a fact that it would be north of 96%, having seen the records of people who had ratings around that figure.
Conclusion: Since this experiment was not conducted in a controlled environment, it may be a little reckless to generalize from these results for overall fantasy football purposes. However, since this is not a peer-reviewed journal, I'm just going to let it rip: The later in the season that I draft a fantasy football team, the better I do.
Speculation: Now for the why. I mean, to many people it may not be obvious why I, or anyone else for that matter, might perform better with a later drafted team. I have only one theory about why the later drafts so heavily favor me. Four games into the season we have more than just the pre-season projections and speculations from camp. We have honest-to-goodness, real and real-time data on how individuals and teams are doing. As far as I can tell, I have made better use of this information than the GMs I have drafted against. Oddly, it also implies that I have been more flexible in accepting and incorporating this data into my rankings than others have. (A charge not usually leveled against me.) The result is that opposing GMs are sticking with projections and rankings that are outdated, leaving very valuable players around for me to draft.
And yes, in 2010, I'd like to push back at least one of my drafts to see if it works with real GMs.
Um, you might want to be sitting for this.
Team: Regular Season Placement/Championship Placement
Team 1: 1/1
Team 2: 1/1
Team 3: 1/1
Team 4: 1/1
Team 5: 1/1
Team 6: 3/1
Team 7: 3/1
Team 8: 4/1
Team 9: 3/2
Team A: 3/2
Team B: 4/2
Team C: 5
Team D: 6
Team E: 9
Summary Results: I drafted 14 teams after the scoring for week 1 had been completed, with the bulk of the teams drafted after week 4 had been closed. Out of the 14 teams drafted, 11 made the playoffs, and all 11 teams reached the championship game. Only 3 of the 11 teams lost their championship game, and one was by 0.02 points. A total of 3 of the original 14 teams drafted did not make the playoffs, all of those teams were abandoned as soon as this was clear and in all such cases the league was public. All of the teams drafted in private leagues, um, kicked ass. While I can not produce an exact Yahoo rating from this, I know for a fact that it would be north of 96%, having seen the records of people who had ratings around that figure.
Conclusion: Since this experiment was not conducted in a controlled environment, it may be a little reckless to generalize from these results for overall fantasy football purposes. However, since this is not a peer-reviewed journal, I'm just going to let it rip: The later in the season that I draft a fantasy football team, the better I do.
Speculation: Now for the why. I mean, to many people it may not be obvious why I, or anyone else for that matter, might perform better with a later drafted team. I have only one theory about why the later drafts so heavily favor me. Four games into the season we have more than just the pre-season projections and speculations from camp. We have honest-to-goodness, real and real-time data on how individuals and teams are doing. As far as I can tell, I have made better use of this information than the GMs I have drafted against. Oddly, it also implies that I have been more flexible in accepting and incorporating this data into my rankings than others have. (A charge not usually leveled against me.) The result is that opposing GMs are sticking with projections and rankings that are outdated, leaving very valuable players around for me to draft.
And yes, in 2010, I'd like to push back at least one of my drafts to see if it works with real GMs.
NHNP: Our First 2-time Champion: No Homers III
The NHNP League completed it's third season last night. As much as I was rooting for bench warmer to protect my place in the record books, No Homers managed a victory that gave him his second title, as well as his second consecutive title! Bench warmer grabs second place, and Girlz snagged the bronze to take her place in the fantasy football pantheon.
Now in a sport/game where a number of people have annual arguments over the luck versus skill aspects of fantasy, I'd like to give a lot of credit to No Homers and Girlz for the small pile of hardware they're building up. I've adjusted the Dec 19 post on the annual awards for the league to reflect last night's results, and I've also finalized my Christmas Day 2010 rankings.
It was another fun year in fantasy and I hope to see everyone in 2010!
Happy New Year!
Now in a sport/game where a number of people have annual arguments over the luck versus skill aspects of fantasy, I'd like to give a lot of credit to No Homers and Girlz for the small pile of hardware they're building up. I've adjusted the Dec 19 post on the annual awards for the league to reflect last night's results, and I've also finalized my Christmas Day 2010 rankings.
It was another fun year in fantasy and I hope to see everyone in 2010!
Happy New Year!
Monday, December 28, 2009
The Chicago secondary is killing me!
As soon as I saw that pass interference in the endzone, I knew it would mean points for AP!! This could cost me a fantasy football title!!!!!
I'd rather be lucky than good!: The Skill v. Luck Argument in Fantasy Football
Admit it. In your worst moments or seasons, you've despaired that fantasy football had to be a game of luck or totally lacking in fairness. After all, you didn't win the championship!
My opinion is that while luck is a significant part of fantasy football, it is not the dominant feature. Everyone knows that on a week to week basis, you can lose due to match-ups and crazy games from Chris Johnson who, of course, is on the other guy's team. However, over the course of a season, or several teams, skill plays the greatest role. My personal test of whether this is so is the fact that in general, people's overall records tend to be consistent. True, in any given year (like 2009 for me) someone can have a horrible record, but over the course of many seasons and teams, people's skill levels tend to be revealed by the long-run track records.
Fantasy football is subject to a number of factors that tend to increase the element of chance:
As fantasy football GMs and commissioners, it's our job to find ways to minimize the random element in fantasy football. The best defense against randomness is activity. For example, you want to make sure that by design and membership, your league is not won by an abandoned team (I call them dead). You know the type, the guy who never makes a transaction, doesn't manage his bye weeks, doesn't trade, and doesn't make any posts. Now that guy, if the GMs and commissioner have done their jobs, should never make the playoffs. I am quite proud that in the leagues I manage, those guys never do. I've seen plenty of leagues where that's not true. So while the necessity of active management does not eliminate randomness from a league, it does significantly increase the sense of meritocracy and fairness associated with the outcomes in the leagues.
So what can we do about the chance factor?
Head to Head. The best quote I've seen about this problem is one I stole from the web (I apologize for not remembering the author.) The quote is:
Injuries and Freak Disappointments. My solution to both is to draft for depth and count on having to use that depth. So making sure the bench sizes are reasonable is a priority here. In my 10 team leagues, I prefer a minimum of 5, but am more comfortable with 6 or 7 bench slots.
Outlier Performances. My solution to this problem has always been to have bigger rosters. That way, outlier performances are less likely to determine the outcome of an entire game. I like formats that allow some combination of 6 RBs and WRs (3WR, 2RB, 1RB/WR or 2WR, 2RB, 2 RB/WR) in addition to a TE as opposed to just 5 (like ESPN; 2WR, 2RB, 1RB/WR).
Skill Parity. This one is my favorite. As a GM, the only way to compensate for people who are as smart as you are is to outwork them. You have to manage your injuries, watch the waiver wire and trends in the NFL, play match-ups with certain roster positions (like Defense) and all-around just hustle. As commissioners, the challenge is to design rosters that are large enough to have enough bench space for good planners and drafters, but small enough to retain enough waiver wire gold to reward active managers during the season. Also, the addition of roster slots like IDP, for example, can definitely reward active managers and punish slackers. Individual Defensive Players are never properly ranked in the autodraft systems, so only prepared managers are likely to fare well on draft day. Secondly, IDPs get injured so often, that anyone just leaving their draft day players in the slots all year would almost certainly have a losing record if the IDP scoring is significant.
In closing, success in fantasy football is a mixture of luck and skill, but in the better leagues it's more a matter of skill than luck, and there are a number of things we can do to maximize the role of skill while minimizing random chance.
My opinion is that while luck is a significant part of fantasy football, it is not the dominant feature. Everyone knows that on a week to week basis, you can lose due to match-ups and crazy games from Chris Johnson who, of course, is on the other guy's team. However, over the course of a season, or several teams, skill plays the greatest role. My personal test of whether this is so is the fact that in general, people's overall records tend to be consistent. True, in any given year (like 2009 for me) someone can have a horrible record, but over the course of many seasons and teams, people's skill levels tend to be revealed by the long-run track records.
Fantasy football is subject to a number of factors that tend to increase the element of chance:
- Head to Head Format. The single biggest element of chance is the head to head format that occasionally results in the 3rd highest scoring team that week losing a game, or the #1 seed losing to the last place playoff seed because Peyton was benched. As long as this is not a common occurrence, it mimics real life and provides an element of surprise that many GMs actually find fun.
- Injuries. While there are certain players more prone to injuries than others (Brian Westbrook), a prepared GM will factor this into his draft plan. But there are also freak injuries like the knee injuries to Carson Palmer and Tom Brady that just can't be planned for.
- Freak Disappointments. Why did Matt Forte perform so poorly this year? I haven't seen anyone give a definitive answer to this question. So when you blow a top 5 pick on him in 2009, was it because you were a bad GM, or unlucky? I'd say door #2.
- Outlier Performances. When Chris Johnson goes for over 290 total yards and multiple touchdowns you really want to either have him on your team, or not be involved in the incident. Now in your average league, everyone will have a player or players who have games like this, so it probably evens out over the season. So maybe you didn't have Chris Johnson, but you had Randy Moss who just this weekend grabbed like 3 TDs.
- Skill Parity. One factor that not enough people consider, is skill parity. If you are in a league that consists of all veteran, active, managers then like it or not, random chance has just become a bigger factor in the outcome of your season. If this isn't intuitive, think back to your public league days when virtually every team you drafted made it to the playoffs every year. You probably were one of only 2 or 3 GMs who showed up for the live draft. You got your pick of sleepers, dodged the late injuries from pre-season camps and games (like Westbrook who was ranked #5 on draft day even after it was clear he would miss much of the season), and were able to wait on a number of deep sleepers because all those autodraft teams were using rankings that were not up to date. That was the opposite extreme of a competitive private league where everyone shows up, has done their homework, and is more likely to agree with your rankings than the default rankings. In other words, your competition is much more like you. So of course, luck becomes a bigger factor. (*Do not mistake this for the idea that you should then throw up your hands in despair and use autodraft. In a competitive league, the increased weight of chance is based on the assumption of active and competent management. In other words, if you tried to coast you would be toast in a major way.)
As fantasy football GMs and commissioners, it's our job to find ways to minimize the random element in fantasy football. The best defense against randomness is activity. For example, you want to make sure that by design and membership, your league is not won by an abandoned team (I call them dead). You know the type, the guy who never makes a transaction, doesn't manage his bye weeks, doesn't trade, and doesn't make any posts. Now that guy, if the GMs and commissioner have done their jobs, should never make the playoffs. I am quite proud that in the leagues I manage, those guys never do. I've seen plenty of leagues where that's not true. So while the necessity of active management does not eliminate randomness from a league, it does significantly increase the sense of meritocracy and fairness associated with the outcomes in the leagues.
So what can we do about the chance factor?
Head to Head. The best quote I've seen about this problem is one I stole from the web (I apologize for not remembering the author.) The quote is:
"Total points, more fair. Head to head, more fun."It's that simple. Almost every FF GM I know is aware that total points might be the most fair system because it does away with the possibility that you score the 2nd most points in a given week, and still lose. But these same GMs admit that it's a LOT more fun to be playing "a game" every week. My solution to this problem is to reward point scoring in whatever reward or payoff system you use. Also, since many of us believe that success in fantasy football over the long run is a matter of skill, to maximize the skill aspect we want the longest possible regular season. At the extreme this boils down to 17 weeks, meaning no playoffs! The Back Alley Knife Fight league is set up in just such a manner. Sure, you don't get to look at your team in those neat brackets, but your 11-3 team doesn't lose to that last minute, half-managed 7-7 entry either!
Injuries and Freak Disappointments. My solution to both is to draft for depth and count on having to use that depth. So making sure the bench sizes are reasonable is a priority here. In my 10 team leagues, I prefer a minimum of 5, but am more comfortable with 6 or 7 bench slots.
Outlier Performances. My solution to this problem has always been to have bigger rosters. That way, outlier performances are less likely to determine the outcome of an entire game. I like formats that allow some combination of 6 RBs and WRs (3WR, 2RB, 1RB/WR or 2WR, 2RB, 2 RB/WR) in addition to a TE as opposed to just 5 (like ESPN; 2WR, 2RB, 1RB/WR).
Skill Parity. This one is my favorite. As a GM, the only way to compensate for people who are as smart as you are is to outwork them. You have to manage your injuries, watch the waiver wire and trends in the NFL, play match-ups with certain roster positions (like Defense) and all-around just hustle. As commissioners, the challenge is to design rosters that are large enough to have enough bench space for good planners and drafters, but small enough to retain enough waiver wire gold to reward active managers during the season. Also, the addition of roster slots like IDP, for example, can definitely reward active managers and punish slackers. Individual Defensive Players are never properly ranked in the autodraft systems, so only prepared managers are likely to fare well on draft day. Secondly, IDPs get injured so often, that anyone just leaving their draft day players in the slots all year would almost certainly have a losing record if the IDP scoring is significant.
In closing, success in fantasy football is a mixture of luck and skill, but in the better leagues it's more a matter of skill than luck, and there are a number of things we can do to maximize the role of skill while minimizing random chance.
Peyton Was Robbed!!!!!
Did anyone else see the footage of how Peyton looked as the Colts' lead evaporated with the starters on the sideline? The coach was 100% wrong in not doing everything they could to win. History shows that teams that lose their momentum this way do not win the Superbowl. Period. I believe that the psychological blow to the players is not something the Colts will recover from. You do not devalue the effort and deflate and demotivate the spirit of a bunch of guys who have worked as hard as they did during the pre-season and this whole year by arbitrarily deciding that THIS game is any less valuable to them as any other. You just don't do that. Lombardi wouldn't have. The fact is that their chance at history was a VERY big deal to the players. I think a lot of folks, including the head coach, are completely clueless about what this has done to morale and how bad the backlash will be. You mark my words, but if the Colts do not at least make the Superbowl 1) the spring, and summer are not going to be fun in Indy, 2) the head coach will have to go, and/or 3) you heard it here first, but the Colts will not make the playoffs in 2010.
This was bad. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. The coach cheated those players, and robbed them of their pride and the fruits of their efforts.
This was bad. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. The coach cheated those players, and robbed them of their pride and the fruits of their efforts.
Friday, December 25, 2009
My Early 2010 Rankings
As some of you know, I consider the first 13 to 14 weeks the most important in terms of evaluating performance and making plans for your next draft. The guy who is #1 at his position in the months of December and January over the last 5 years is useless to me if he's #39 from September through November. Anyway, since I am unusually idle this Holiday season, I thought I'd take a stab at the 2010 rankings.
QB
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Peyton
3. Tom
4. Drew
5. Philip
6. Matt
7. Ben
8. Tony
9. Donovan
10. Eli
No one else will rank Aaron this high. Me, I'm a slave to the numbers so I like him as #1. Peyton and Tom have to be there because the 3 or 4 year numbers will show they belong. After that, it turns into a free for all. Are Drew's last few games indicative of what we'll see in 2010, or is this just a slump? Will Big Ben really have back to back top 10 years? He never has before. Can Schaub stay healthy for another year? How about Donovan? And will the Cowboys completely implode, leaving Romo owners crying in their beer? Right now, I am not comfortable with half those names. I want to emphasize that Schaub and Roethlisberger are having GREAT years in 2009, and their numbers actually warrant a higher rank. I had to lower them only because they haven't proved they can do this consistently, which is the same reason Peyton, Tom, and Drew are ranked a little higher than their raw 2009 numbers would justify. In summary, I'd be perfectly happy with any of the top 7 guys next year. If I get stuck with the bottom 3, I had better have snagged some really good values at RB/WR to compensate.
RB
1. CJ
2. AP
3. MJD
4. RR
5. FG
6. Steven Jackson
7. Ronnie Brown
8. Deangelo Williams
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Benson
12. Turner
13. Grant
14. Wells
15. Thomas
16. Addai
17. Moreno
18. Harrison
19. Jones
20. Smith
Addai and Jones are currently in the top 10 in 2009 performance but come with question marks. Donald Brown will have had a full year with the offense by 2010 and lest we forget, Addai has a durability problem that has been masked by his very good performance this year. As for TJ, easily one of my favorite real world athletes, I'm sorry, but I have to invoke the Logan Run rule as well as point to the firm of Washington & Greene. You may also have to adjust Gore's rank downwards a bit, as he hasn't been available for as many starts as the others in the top 10. I'm tempted to rank Moreno higher and would have, were it not for the 2nd law of fantasy football: Never trust a Denver RB! Or more precisely, never trust the Denver head coach to be rational about managing his running backs. It may be too soon to see if Jerome Harrison is the real deal but I like the early indications, and I like what the Browns are doing late in their lost season. Jamaal Charles will be ranked lower on all the official listings than he is here. There will be some legitimate concerns, which I share, about the Chiefs offense and whether Cassel 2010 will be more of the 2008 vintage, or 2009. But these guys now have Chris Chambers, Dwayne Bowe, Cassel with a full year in the offense, and a legit talent in Charles. I'll probably be grabbing him earlier than his "expert" ranking indicates. Finally, Michael Turner will likely be a consensus top 10 or even top 5. I think he's good, but I was burned at the RB position this year (by his former teammate no less), so I will be a little shy to rank him higher than you see him here.
WR
1. Andre
2. Reggie
3. Randy
4. Wes
5. Larry
6. Brandon
7. Vincent
8. Miles
9. Desean
10. Roddy
11. Marques
12. Ocho
13. Greg
14. Steve (CAR)
15. Santonio
16. Mike Sims-Walker
17. Dwayne
18. Calvin
19. Anquan
20. Steve (NYG)
I heard an unfounded rumor in the barbershop that TO is going to the Patriots. If that happens, it won't affect the WR ratings, but you might have to bump up Tom a slot or 2. I have Larry ranked 5 because I feel I have to, but I don't feel as confident about the Cardinal offense as I did last year. Also, Kurt is another year older and no guarantee to return, much less at his 2008 form in 2010. If Fitzgerald's the next name on my cheat sheet on draft day, I'll probably skip down to the next WR. Miles Austin and Desean Jackson will probably not make anyone else's top 10 in next year's draft, but I have a hard time thinking that Romo's going to want to change much and at the rate that Macklin and McCoy are developing in Philly, defenses are going to have a tough time double-teaming Desean. As for Calvin and Anquan, a lot of folks will be ranking them much higher, but I consider them high risk. Injury aside, I find it unsettling that Stafford and Megatron didn't have better chemistry, and that the carousel of QBs in 2008 gave Megatron far superior numbers than did the number 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. As for Boldin, you've seen my earlier comments on Warner. Now add to that the injury and contract issues, and Boldin (who burned me big time this year) becomes too much of a risk for a high draft pick. Finally, Steve Smith (CAR) is not normally that high on my draft boards but numbers don't lie. And what the numbers tell me is that Moore is a better QB than Delhomme... SHOCKER!
TE
1. Dallas Clark
2. Vernon Davis
3. Brent Celek
4. Owen Daniels
5. Antonio Gates
6. Tony Gonzalez
7. Chris Cooley
8. Kellen Winslow
9. Jason Witten
10. Visanthe Shiancoe
In most leagues Celek and Davis were available on the waiver wire. In a year where so many of my decisions went awry, my predilection for waiting on TEs paid off in every league. This position is notoriously unpredictable and 2009 was no exception. Right now, I'd say the top 3 plus Antonio and Jermichael (not shown above) may deserve serious consideration for spending a 6th or 7th round pick. For everyone else, I'd wait until round 11 or 12 because you're throwing a dart.
Let's see how this ranking survives the Spring!
QB
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Peyton
3. Tom
4. Drew
5. Philip
6. Matt
7. Ben
8. Tony
9. Donovan
10. Eli
No one else will rank Aaron this high. Me, I'm a slave to the numbers so I like him as #1. Peyton and Tom have to be there because the 3 or 4 year numbers will show they belong. After that, it turns into a free for all. Are Drew's last few games indicative of what we'll see in 2010, or is this just a slump? Will Big Ben really have back to back top 10 years? He never has before. Can Schaub stay healthy for another year? How about Donovan? And will the Cowboys completely implode, leaving Romo owners crying in their beer? Right now, I am not comfortable with half those names. I want to emphasize that Schaub and Roethlisberger are having GREAT years in 2009, and their numbers actually warrant a higher rank. I had to lower them only because they haven't proved they can do this consistently, which is the same reason Peyton, Tom, and Drew are ranked a little higher than their raw 2009 numbers would justify. In summary, I'd be perfectly happy with any of the top 7 guys next year. If I get stuck with the bottom 3, I had better have snagged some really good values at RB/WR to compensate.
RB
1. CJ
2. AP
3. MJD
4. RR
5. FG
6. Steven Jackson
7. Ronnie Brown
8. Deangelo Williams
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Benson
12. Turner
13. Grant
14. Wells
15. Thomas
16. Addai
17. Moreno
18. Harrison
19. Jones
20. Smith
Addai and Jones are currently in the top 10 in 2009 performance but come with question marks. Donald Brown will have had a full year with the offense by 2010 and lest we forget, Addai has a durability problem that has been masked by his very good performance this year. As for TJ, easily one of my favorite real world athletes, I'm sorry, but I have to invoke the Logan Run rule as well as point to the firm of Washington & Greene. You may also have to adjust Gore's rank downwards a bit, as he hasn't been available for as many starts as the others in the top 10. I'm tempted to rank Moreno higher and would have, were it not for the 2nd law of fantasy football: Never trust a Denver RB! Or more precisely, never trust the Denver head coach to be rational about managing his running backs. It may be too soon to see if Jerome Harrison is the real deal but I like the early indications, and I like what the Browns are doing late in their lost season. Jamaal Charles will be ranked lower on all the official listings than he is here. There will be some legitimate concerns, which I share, about the Chiefs offense and whether Cassel 2010 will be more of the 2008 vintage, or 2009. But these guys now have Chris Chambers, Dwayne Bowe, Cassel with a full year in the offense, and a legit talent in Charles. I'll probably be grabbing him earlier than his "expert" ranking indicates. Finally, Michael Turner will likely be a consensus top 10 or even top 5. I think he's good, but I was burned at the RB position this year (by his former teammate no less), so I will be a little shy to rank him higher than you see him here.
WR
1. Andre
2. Reggie
3. Randy
4. Wes
5. Larry
6. Brandon
7. Vincent
8. Miles
9. Desean
10. Roddy
11. Marques
12. Ocho
13. Greg
14. Steve (CAR)
15. Santonio
16. Mike Sims-Walker
17. Dwayne
18. Calvin
19. Anquan
20. Steve (NYG)
I heard an unfounded rumor in the barbershop that TO is going to the Patriots. If that happens, it won't affect the WR ratings, but you might have to bump up Tom a slot or 2. I have Larry ranked 5 because I feel I have to, but I don't feel as confident about the Cardinal offense as I did last year. Also, Kurt is another year older and no guarantee to return, much less at his 2008 form in 2010. If Fitzgerald's the next name on my cheat sheet on draft day, I'll probably skip down to the next WR. Miles Austin and Desean Jackson will probably not make anyone else's top 10 in next year's draft, but I have a hard time thinking that Romo's going to want to change much and at the rate that Macklin and McCoy are developing in Philly, defenses are going to have a tough time double-teaming Desean. As for Calvin and Anquan, a lot of folks will be ranking them much higher, but I consider them high risk. Injury aside, I find it unsettling that Stafford and Megatron didn't have better chemistry, and that the carousel of QBs in 2008 gave Megatron far superior numbers than did the number 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. As for Boldin, you've seen my earlier comments on Warner. Now add to that the injury and contract issues, and Boldin (who burned me big time this year) becomes too much of a risk for a high draft pick. Finally, Steve Smith (CAR) is not normally that high on my draft boards but numbers don't lie. And what the numbers tell me is that Moore is a better QB than Delhomme... SHOCKER!
TE
1. Dallas Clark
2. Vernon Davis
3. Brent Celek
4. Owen Daniels
5. Antonio Gates
6. Tony Gonzalez
7. Chris Cooley
8. Kellen Winslow
9. Jason Witten
10. Visanthe Shiancoe
In most leagues Celek and Davis were available on the waiver wire. In a year where so many of my decisions went awry, my predilection for waiting on TEs paid off in every league. This position is notoriously unpredictable and 2009 was no exception. Right now, I'd say the top 3 plus Antonio and Jermichael (not shown above) may deserve serious consideration for spending a 6th or 7th round pick. For everyone else, I'd wait until round 11 or 12 because you're throwing a dart.
Let's see how this ranking survives the Spring!
Monday, December 21, 2009
Back Alley Knife Fight: The Desperate Brawl for the Rusty Dagger!
Once again, the BAKF is going down to the final games. Unfortunately for yours truly, the schedule works against me. Here's how we entered week 15.
Here's how we're likely to come out of it:
1. Girlz 11-4
2. Sickkk 10-5
3. Bone Crushers 10-5
4. Angry Minnesotans 10-5
5. bench warmer 10-5
I did my job this week by beating Girlz, but it looks like it won't be enough. Looking at weeks 16 and 17, I'd say that Girlz will be wearing the crown when the dust settles and the bleeding stops. How did I get there? Let's take a look:
Week 16
Minnesota and bench warmer play teams with losing streaks that will be 7 and 3 games long respectively, rank in the bottom 3 in scoring, and do not appear to be actively managed. Forty Ounce last checked in in October and Awesome in September?! So make us 11-5 barring bad luck.
Sickkk plays TailgeterZ in week 16, and while TailgaterZ is doing better in other leagues, he's 1-13 here! So, much as I might wish for a different outcome, that's looking like a W for my competition. Figure Sickkk goes 11-5.
When Bonecrusher faces the Union team in week 16, he may have the best chance of losing out of the rest of us. That's because the IUEC Local 71 Miami sports a very good line-up and the GM was active as recently as December 10. Bonecrusher should probably still be favored here, but you never know. Just to be cautious, let's say he pulls it out: 11-5.
Girlz has a week 16 that looks just like Bonecrushers. The Sheriff has a very good team and last checked-in about a week ago. If he sets a line-up, I figure he has at least a 50-50 chance of winning. But again, if we use the most recent past as a baseline, we probably have to count on Girlz winning. This means she automatically gets to tie with someone else and wait for the tie-breaker, which will probably be points. Girlz 12-4.
So:
1. Girlz 12-4
2. Sickkk 11-5
3. Bone Crushers 11-5
4. Angry Minnesotans 11-5
5. bench warmer 11-5
Which brings us to Week 17:
Using the same assumptions as above, we have:
Angry Minnesotans: W, 12-5
bench warmer: W, 12-5
Girlz: W, 13-4 (League Champion)
Bone Crushers and Sickkk have the dubious distinction of having the toughest match-up for the last game of the season. One of them will go 12-5, and the other will finish 5th. Let's face it, the key in Week 17 is the Girlz match-up, and by that standard she has a bye-week.
But I'm not giving up hope. There's always blind, random luck!
| 1. | Girlz Rule | 11-3-0 | .786 | 1783.84 | W-2 | 6 | 17 |
| 2. | SICKKK | 10-4-0 | .714 | 1931.86 | L-1 | 7 | 14 |
| 3. | Bone Crushers | 9-5-0 | .643 | 1958.42 | L-2 | 10 | 18 |
| 4. | Angry Minnesotans | 9-5-0 | .643 | 1831.50 | W-5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5. | bench warmer | 9-5-0 | .643 | 1804.92 | W-2 | 5 | 8 |
Here's how we're likely to come out of it:
1. Girlz 11-4
2. Sickkk 10-5
3. Bone Crushers 10-5
4. Angry Minnesotans 10-5
5. bench warmer 10-5
I did my job this week by beating Girlz, but it looks like it won't be enough. Looking at weeks 16 and 17, I'd say that Girlz will be wearing the crown when the dust settles and the bleeding stops. How did I get there? Let's take a look:
Week 16: Dec 22 - Dec 28 Printable Version
| Angry Minnesotans | 0.00 | Match Up |
| Forte Ounce | 0.00 |
bench warmer | 0.00 | Match Up |
| Awesome123 | 0.00 |
TailGaterZ | 0.00 | Match Up |
| SICKKK | 0.00 |
Bone Crushers | 0.00 | Match Up |
| IUEC Local 71 Miami | 0.00 |
SheriffGonnaGetcha | 0.00 | |
| Girlz Rule | 0.00 |
Week 16
Minnesota and bench warmer play teams with losing streaks that will be 7 and 3 games long respectively, rank in the bottom 3 in scoring, and do not appear to be actively managed. Forty Ounce last checked in in October and Awesome in September?! So make us 11-5 barring bad luck.
Sickkk plays TailgeterZ in week 16, and while TailgaterZ is doing better in other leagues, he's 1-13 here! So, much as I might wish for a different outcome, that's looking like a W for my competition. Figure Sickkk goes 11-5.
When Bonecrusher faces the Union team in week 16, he may have the best chance of losing out of the rest of us. That's because the IUEC Local 71 Miami sports a very good line-up and the GM was active as recently as December 10. Bonecrusher should probably still be favored here, but you never know. Just to be cautious, let's say he pulls it out: 11-5.
Girlz has a week 16 that looks just like Bonecrushers. The Sheriff has a very good team and last checked-in about a week ago. If he sets a line-up, I figure he has at least a 50-50 chance of winning. But again, if we use the most recent past as a baseline, we probably have to count on Girlz winning. This means she automatically gets to tie with someone else and wait for the tie-breaker, which will probably be points. Girlz 12-4.
So:
1. Girlz 12-4
2. Sickkk 11-5
3. Bone Crushers 11-5
4. Angry Minnesotans 11-5
5. bench warmer 11-5
Which brings us to Week 17:
Week 17: Dec 29 - Jan 3 Printable Version
| Angry Minnesotans | 0.00 | Match Up |
| IUEC Local 71 Miami | 0.00 |
bench warmer | 0.00 | Match Up |
| SheriffGonnaGetcha | 0.00 |
TailGaterZ | 0.00 | Match Up |
| Awesome123 | 0.00 |
Bone Crushers | 0.00 | Match Up |
| SICKKK | 0.00 |
Forte Ounce | 0.00 | Match Up |
| Girlz Rule | 0.00 |
Using the same assumptions as above, we have:
Angry Minnesotans: W, 12-5
bench warmer: W, 12-5
Girlz: W, 13-4 (League Champion)
Bone Crushers and Sickkk have the dubious distinction of having the toughest match-up for the last game of the season. One of them will go 12-5, and the other will finish 5th. Let's face it, the key in Week 17 is the Girlz match-up, and by that standard she has a bye-week.
But I'm not giving up hope. There's always blind, random luck!
Saturday, December 19, 2009
NHNP: The 2009 Regular Season Awards
The Year in Fantasy Football 2009
Bad Year
In breaking news, I'm announcing that I've had a horrible fantasy football year. Maybe later, after the rescue teams extract me from my blizzard-covered dwelling, I'll do a post on what happened to me. For now, on to more exciting things.
FF Surprises
The bench warmer and Hey Beerman!!! made their long awaited appearances in the playoffs this year. Beerman toyed with the rest of us and kept us in suspense until the very last minute of the very last game of the regular season. Girlz makes her second appearance in three years and was in the running for the regular season crown pretty much the whole year. She has also made the playoffs in all the other leagues we compete in. And rounding out the order is No Homers, who is now poised to be the first repeat champion in the league. Needless to say, I'm pretty much rooting for anyone else here.
LOL
QBs
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers (My #1 QB for 2009)
Peyton
Brady
Schaub
Romo
Favre
Rivers
Roethlisberger
Eli
MIA
Jay Cutler
Warner
McNabb
Cassel
Garrard
Pennington
For the second year in a row, Drew is the man, in terms of points (weeks 1-14). The Beerman stole my playbook in picking Drew. I had threatened to do just that this year but was captive to my (RB/WR-heavy) nature. As I recounted in my post-draft post, No Homers snagged Rodgers away JUST before I was about to pick the QB. Fantasy-wise, Rodgers is actually my top-ranked QB this year as he scores in the top 3, but has the fewest bad games. I do not think it's a coincidence that the top 3 QBs led their teams to fantasy playoff berths. Girlz is the only playoff team without the benefit of a top 10 QB. And yes, I will actually follow through on a more QB centered draft strategy next year.
I'd like to take credit for calling the Schaub thing. He was a great value in the drafts this year. The biggest surprises to me were Big Ben, Brett, and ......Eli?????? There is no way I would have figured these guys for top 10 at the beginning of the year. I'm still shocked. Of the 3 however, the only one I would trust with even a middle-round pick in 2010 is Ben. I think of the Steelers as a genetically run-first team, but those stats don't lie. Unless they beef up their O-line and draft another bruising RB, this aerial thing may be more than a fling. (UPDATE 12/21: Big Ben threw for over 500 yards this weekend. End of discussion.) Missing from the top 10 are Cutler, Warner and McNabb. Cutler's prospects will rest on what happens in the off-season. The Bear simply have so many holes to fill, that I can not see spending a serious pick on Jay. Kurt has a virtual headstone atop his head, while Donovan may actually be worth picking next year based on the flashes we've seen with his new toys.
RBs
Chris Johnson
MJD
Petereson
Rice (My #2 RB for 2009)
SJ
TJ
Ricky
Deangelo
Gore
Grant
MIA
Turner
Forte
TJ
LT
Slaton
Westbrook
Portis
For my money, Chris Johnson has inherited the red cape with the S from LaDainian Tomlinson. He will go into the 2010 fantasy draft as my #1 ranked RB, and probably my #2 ranked player. Over the last 8 weeks of the regular season he has been flawless, scoring in the top 10 each and every start. Ray Rice is one of the biggest surprise on this list (and would have been the biggest were it not for puff the magic dragon). With the Raven backfield so crowded going into this season, many of us had to gamble on taking Ray. Things got worse for Rice owners over the first few weeks when Willis was actually vulturing more points than the starter was scoring! I saw a number of rash (in hindsight) trades occur around that time. Live and learn. Rice was definitely on my radar but was stolen by a GM who shall not be named. Next comes Steven Jackson, whose talent is so undeniable, that even on the worst team in the league SJ gave his owners a top 5 year!? He's ridiculous, and deserves to be on a better team. Even though 99% of fantasy football fans do not know this, it's worth noting that over the last 8 weeks, Steven Jackson has been the third most reliable RB in the league behind only a delirious Chris Johnson and a surprising Ray Rice.
Easily the second or third best best bargain in this year's RB draft was Thomas Jones, who returns to the top 10 for the second year in a row. He dropped tremendously in pre-season because the overheated sports press were so fixated on Leon Washington and Shonn Greene, that they overlooked a guy who came in with 1,500/15. Give me a break. He didn't get enough love in Chicago, and he still doesn't today. All this guy does is move chains and score touchdowns. If he's so awful, please trade him to the Eagles. Please!
The next player has GOT to be a typo: Ricky Williams? Isn't he dead or in Canada? All I can say here is that the Wildcat is Brown and Williams' owners friendly. Period. As for next year, no thank you. If it weren't for the fact that Ricky was probably a waiver wire pick-up, I'm not sure even the GM's who got him would have bothered. I'll probably be wrong on this, but I'm writing off this 2009 wonder as a fluke.
And who didn't make the dance in 2009? Turner got hurt, but was struggling even before the injuries. I will probably avoid him in 2010 drafts. Forte was not able to follow-up on a tremendous rookie season. A porous O-line is an RB's worst enemy. As with Cutler, you'll want to pay attention to what the Bears do about the line in the off-season before even thinking of pulling the trigger on Matty boy. Next we have my biggest drafting mistake in 2009: LT. If you watch Charger games, their blocking is not what it used to be and LT is a little bit slower. It is an unfortunate combination that has tanked my season in multiple leagues. I don't want to go as far as swearing off RBs over 30 but......
Steve Slaton joins the hall of shame in 2009. Many fantasy owners were looking for big things from Mr. Slaton and got the big Bupkus instead. He was a virtuoso fumbling machine who lacked the explosiveness of his rookie year. And yes, he was another one of my 2009 mistakes. Although Girlz called this guy right on the nose this summer. She couldn't articulate why, but she didn't trust him. I won't make that mistake twice.
Brian Westbrook of my formerly beloved Eagles. I called him, and Mr. 19 million disguises (Portis) correctly this summer in saying that they were broken down and ready for the scrap heap.
WR
Andre
Reggie
Randy
Wes
Brandon
Larry
Desean
Miles
Vincent
(The) Steve Smith
MIA
Calvin
Greg
Roddy
Steve
Anquan
Antonio
Terrel
Andre Johnson is a beast. I'm very proud to have predicted a great year for him and think there should be more to come from him in the future. But after the top 3 here, and Larry, notice how alien the list looks. Welker should have been top 20 or 15, not top 5. Over the year AND the last 8 weeks, Welker has also been top 5 in reliability, which means that he should have been one of the first 10 WRs selected in the 2009 fantasy draft (actually his performance clearly warrants a top 5 pick). Brandon Marshall should probably have been at the same spot he's earned, but on a different team. I'm still not drafting him next year, because I don't trust Orton and I don't trust Josh. Desean Jackson is more than just a mild surprise, he's a cattle prod in an unmentionable place. As is Miles Austin. I'm pretty sure the line is: Who are those guys? Well, I'll tell you. Both of those guys are also top 3 in week to week scoring reliability. Jackson should stay in your top 20 rankings for next year's draft, and will probably be ranked by the experts in the top 12. Austin, I'm not so sure, but I bet they both go a LOT higher in the 2010 draft than they did this year. Vincent Jackson should be moved up to your top 10 rankings, but that's just me. As for the real Steve Smith, what can I say, he's an SC product. From what I have seen of the Giants this year he appears to have become the possession receiver in that offense, which warrants a top 20 ranking for 2010. But all around, a rather surprising collection of names in the top 10. If you look carefully, the RBs had more consistency between 2008 and 2009 at the top of the heap than did the WRs. A turnaround from last year with 2007-2008.
As for the MIAs, T.O. is over and done, and should never have been ranked as highly as he was in the preseason. Calvin should probably stay in the top 20 rankings as the Lions (hopefully) improve. Jennings should only stay in the top 20 if Green Bay does something about that O-line. (Yes, it's a familiar theme.) I never trusted Antonio Bryant, and I was right. (Makes up for my being wrong about Jennings.) The original Steve Smith suffers from playing with a non-NFL caliber QB. I would not rank him in the top 20 next year. He's done. Anquan Boldin should also not be ranked in the top 20 in 2010 unless he's been traded to a decent or good team. Warner's days are over, and much as I love SC, Leinart is not the cure for what ails the Cardinals. Finally, we come to Roddy White, whose bad year is a surprise to me. I have no explanation for the bad year. Of course Ryan was hurt and then Turner was hurt, but early on, everyone was healthy and they still didn't click. If you subscribe to the alternating year theory of the Atlanta Falcons however, then you want to pick up Roddy as a WR1 or WR2 in 2010 because this was definitely a DOWN year.
League Awards for 2009
No Helmets No Pads
League Champion: No Homers (2nd consecutive title) (12/29/09)
Second Place: bench warmer (12/29/09)
Third Place: Girlz (12/29/09)
Regular Season Champion: bench warmer*
League High Scorer: No Homers
Golden Doughnut: No Homers (Most high scores)
Most Improved: Hey Beerman!!!
The Rodney King Beatdown Award: No Homers (Most blowouts)
The Mummy's Hand: no1savedPRivateRyan (Week 14 against No Homers)
NHNP was again an extremely competitive, dangerous league. This was our first year using a divisional format. It was fun, but there were some unexpected quirks. For example, division 1 (and we really do have to come up with better names) sported the three highest scoring teams in the entire league. And while I am aware that this happens across the fantasy universe and even in real life, it can look a little odd to the guys in 3rd, 4th and 5th place in the strong division. This year saw bench warmer and Hey Beerman!!! make their first playoff appearances, while Girlz and No Homers put a second notch on their belts. The new teams promise to make things exciting for 2010. A fun little factoid, but in the first two seasons of the NHNP league, the team that finished in first place in the regular season also won the playoff title. We'll have to see if this makes 3 in a row. I forgot to add the 2009 Mummy's Hand Award for a significant victory by a team that is out of contention, a.k.a Good Sportsmanship award for teams that might otherwise quit. This year's award goes to no1savedPrivateRyan for a week 14 victory against the then #1 overall seed No Homers. I like the fact that PrivateRyan kept setting a line-up even after he determined he was out of the playoffs. In year's past, the Mummy's Hand winner has actually knocked teams out of contention with their late season victories in the NHNP and the Back Alley Knife Fight league.
*After sticking through 2 brutal years in the NHNP league, bench warmer came up with a richly deserved top overall seed for the playoffs. The purists will note however, that at 10-4 bench warmer and No Homers tied for best record, and No Homers scored the most points. Had the NHNP not switched to a divisional format, No Homers would have been the top seed in the playoffs and regular season champion.
Bad Year
In breaking news, I'm announcing that I've had a horrible fantasy football year. Maybe later, after the rescue teams extract me from my blizzard-covered dwelling, I'll do a post on what happened to me. For now, on to more exciting things.
FF Surprises
The bench warmer and Hey Beerman!!! made their long awaited appearances in the playoffs this year. Beerman toyed with the rest of us and kept us in suspense until the very last minute of the very last game of the regular season. Girlz makes her second appearance in three years and was in the running for the regular season crown pretty much the whole year. She has also made the playoffs in all the other leagues we compete in. And rounding out the order is No Homers, who is now poised to be the first repeat champion in the league. Needless to say, I'm pretty much rooting for anyone else here.
LOL
QBs
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers (My #1 QB for 2009)
Peyton
Brady
Schaub
Romo
Favre
Rivers
Roethlisberger
Eli
MIA
Jay Cutler
Warner
McNabb
Cassel
Garrard
Pennington
For the second year in a row, Drew is the man, in terms of points (weeks 1-14). The Beerman stole my playbook in picking Drew. I had threatened to do just that this year but was captive to my (RB/WR-heavy) nature. As I recounted in my post-draft post, No Homers snagged Rodgers away JUST before I was about to pick the QB. Fantasy-wise, Rodgers is actually my top-ranked QB this year as he scores in the top 3, but has the fewest bad games. I do not think it's a coincidence that the top 3 QBs led their teams to fantasy playoff berths. Girlz is the only playoff team without the benefit of a top 10 QB. And yes, I will actually follow through on a more QB centered draft strategy next year.
I'd like to take credit for calling the Schaub thing. He was a great value in the drafts this year. The biggest surprises to me were Big Ben, Brett, and ......Eli?????? There is no way I would have figured these guys for top 10 at the beginning of the year. I'm still shocked. Of the 3 however, the only one I would trust with even a middle-round pick in 2010 is Ben. I think of the Steelers as a genetically run-first team, but those stats don't lie. Unless they beef up their O-line and draft another bruising RB, this aerial thing may be more than a fling. (UPDATE 12/21: Big Ben threw for over 500 yards this weekend. End of discussion.) Missing from the top 10 are Cutler, Warner and McNabb. Cutler's prospects will rest on what happens in the off-season. The Bear simply have so many holes to fill, that I can not see spending a serious pick on Jay. Kurt has a virtual headstone atop his head, while Donovan may actually be worth picking next year based on the flashes we've seen with his new toys.
RBs
Chris Johnson
MJD
Petereson
Rice (My #2 RB for 2009)
SJ
TJ
Ricky
Deangelo
Gore
Grant
MIA
Turner
Forte
TJ
LT
Slaton
Westbrook
Portis
For my money, Chris Johnson has inherited the red cape with the S from LaDainian Tomlinson. He will go into the 2010 fantasy draft as my #1 ranked RB, and probably my #2 ranked player. Over the last 8 weeks of the regular season he has been flawless, scoring in the top 10 each and every start. Ray Rice is one of the biggest surprise on this list (and would have been the biggest were it not for puff the magic dragon). With the Raven backfield so crowded going into this season, many of us had to gamble on taking Ray. Things got worse for Rice owners over the first few weeks when Willis was actually vulturing more points than the starter was scoring! I saw a number of rash (in hindsight) trades occur around that time. Live and learn. Rice was definitely on my radar but was stolen by a GM who shall not be named. Next comes Steven Jackson, whose talent is so undeniable, that even on the worst team in the league SJ gave his owners a top 5 year!? He's ridiculous, and deserves to be on a better team. Even though 99% of fantasy football fans do not know this, it's worth noting that over the last 8 weeks, Steven Jackson has been the third most reliable RB in the league behind only a delirious Chris Johnson and a surprising Ray Rice.
Easily the second or third best best bargain in this year's RB draft was Thomas Jones, who returns to the top 10 for the second year in a row. He dropped tremendously in pre-season because the overheated sports press were so fixated on Leon Washington and Shonn Greene, that they overlooked a guy who came in with 1,500/15. Give me a break. He didn't get enough love in Chicago, and he still doesn't today. All this guy does is move chains and score touchdowns. If he's so awful, please trade him to the Eagles. Please!
The next player has GOT to be a typo: Ricky Williams? Isn't he dead or in Canada? All I can say here is that the Wildcat is Brown and Williams' owners friendly. Period. As for next year, no thank you. If it weren't for the fact that Ricky was probably a waiver wire pick-up, I'm not sure even the GM's who got him would have bothered. I'll probably be wrong on this, but I'm writing off this 2009 wonder as a fluke.
And who didn't make the dance in 2009? Turner got hurt, but was struggling even before the injuries. I will probably avoid him in 2010 drafts. Forte was not able to follow-up on a tremendous rookie season. A porous O-line is an RB's worst enemy. As with Cutler, you'll want to pay attention to what the Bears do about the line in the off-season before even thinking of pulling the trigger on Matty boy. Next we have my biggest drafting mistake in 2009: LT. If you watch Charger games, their blocking is not what it used to be and LT is a little bit slower. It is an unfortunate combination that has tanked my season in multiple leagues. I don't want to go as far as swearing off RBs over 30 but......
Steve Slaton joins the hall of shame in 2009. Many fantasy owners were looking for big things from Mr. Slaton and got the big Bupkus instead. He was a virtuoso fumbling machine who lacked the explosiveness of his rookie year. And yes, he was another one of my 2009 mistakes. Although Girlz called this guy right on the nose this summer. She couldn't articulate why, but she didn't trust him. I won't make that mistake twice.
Brian Westbrook of my formerly beloved Eagles. I called him, and Mr. 19 million disguises (Portis) correctly this summer in saying that they were broken down and ready for the scrap heap.
WR
Andre
Reggie
Randy
Wes
Brandon
Larry
Desean
Miles
Vincent
(The) Steve Smith
MIA
Calvin
Greg
Roddy
Steve
Anquan
Antonio
Terrel
Andre Johnson is a beast. I'm very proud to have predicted a great year for him and think there should be more to come from him in the future. But after the top 3 here, and Larry, notice how alien the list looks. Welker should have been top 20 or 15, not top 5. Over the year AND the last 8 weeks, Welker has also been top 5 in reliability, which means that he should have been one of the first 10 WRs selected in the 2009 fantasy draft (actually his performance clearly warrants a top 5 pick). Brandon Marshall should probably have been at the same spot he's earned, but on a different team. I'm still not drafting him next year, because I don't trust Orton and I don't trust Josh. Desean Jackson is more than just a mild surprise, he's a cattle prod in an unmentionable place. As is Miles Austin. I'm pretty sure the line is: Who are those guys? Well, I'll tell you. Both of those guys are also top 3 in week to week scoring reliability. Jackson should stay in your top 20 rankings for next year's draft, and will probably be ranked by the experts in the top 12. Austin, I'm not so sure, but I bet they both go a LOT higher in the 2010 draft than they did this year. Vincent Jackson should be moved up to your top 10 rankings, but that's just me. As for the real Steve Smith, what can I say, he's an SC product. From what I have seen of the Giants this year he appears to have become the possession receiver in that offense, which warrants a top 20 ranking for 2010. But all around, a rather surprising collection of names in the top 10. If you look carefully, the RBs had more consistency between 2008 and 2009 at the top of the heap than did the WRs. A turnaround from last year with 2007-2008.
As for the MIAs, T.O. is over and done, and should never have been ranked as highly as he was in the preseason. Calvin should probably stay in the top 20 rankings as the Lions (hopefully) improve. Jennings should only stay in the top 20 if Green Bay does something about that O-line. (Yes, it's a familiar theme.) I never trusted Antonio Bryant, and I was right. (Makes up for my being wrong about Jennings.) The original Steve Smith suffers from playing with a non-NFL caliber QB. I would not rank him in the top 20 next year. He's done. Anquan Boldin should also not be ranked in the top 20 in 2010 unless he's been traded to a decent or good team. Warner's days are over, and much as I love SC, Leinart is not the cure for what ails the Cardinals. Finally, we come to Roddy White, whose bad year is a surprise to me. I have no explanation for the bad year. Of course Ryan was hurt and then Turner was hurt, but early on, everyone was healthy and they still didn't click. If you subscribe to the alternating year theory of the Atlanta Falcons however, then you want to pick up Roddy as a WR1 or WR2 in 2010 because this was definitely a DOWN year.
League Awards for 2009
No Helmets No Pads
League Champion: No Homers (2nd consecutive title) (12/29/09)
Second Place: bench warmer (12/29/09)
Third Place: Girlz (12/29/09)
Regular Season Champion: bench warmer*
League High Scorer: No Homers
Golden Doughnut: No Homers (Most high scores)
Most Improved: Hey Beerman!!!
The Rodney King Beatdown Award: No Homers (Most blowouts)
The Mummy's Hand: no1savedPRivateRyan (Week 14 against No Homers)
NHNP was again an extremely competitive, dangerous league. This was our first year using a divisional format. It was fun, but there were some unexpected quirks. For example, division 1 (and we really do have to come up with better names) sported the three highest scoring teams in the entire league. And while I am aware that this happens across the fantasy universe and even in real life, it can look a little odd to the guys in 3rd, 4th and 5th place in the strong division. This year saw bench warmer and Hey Beerman!!! make their first playoff appearances, while Girlz and No Homers put a second notch on their belts. The new teams promise to make things exciting for 2010. A fun little factoid, but in the first two seasons of the NHNP league, the team that finished in first place in the regular season also won the playoff title. We'll have to see if this makes 3 in a row. I forgot to add the 2009 Mummy's Hand Award for a significant victory by a team that is out of contention, a.k.a Good Sportsmanship award for teams that might otherwise quit. This year's award goes to no1savedPrivateRyan for a week 14 victory against the then #1 overall seed No Homers. I like the fact that PrivateRyan kept setting a line-up even after he determined he was out of the playoffs. In year's past, the Mummy's Hand winner has actually knocked teams out of contention with their late season victories in the NHNP and the Back Alley Knife Fight league.
*After sticking through 2 brutal years in the NHNP league, bench warmer came up with a richly deserved top overall seed for the playoffs. The purists will note however, that at 10-4 bench warmer and No Homers tied for best record, and No Homers scored the most points. Had the NHNP not switched to a divisional format, No Homers would have been the top seed in the playoffs and regular season champion.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
