Monday, September 6, 2010

The Big Draft Weekend

Well, we've finally made it to the big draft weekend. So far, I feel a little bit better than last year, but I haven't come away from any of my serious drafts thinking I've got the title in the bag.

Fantasy Football Librarian:
I love her web site, and when I saw the chance to get into one of her leagues, I jumped at it. Our draft was well attended which made it fun, and the folks there had a good sense of humor which really makes it my cup of tea. Two nits though; 1) the draft was s l o w. Despite a few autopicks the full clocks were used throughout, which made it painful. 2) The interface is not as user-friendly as Yahoo. But the competition was pretty good with some really solid teams coming out of that draft.

The FFL league was my first draft of the day. QB, WR,WR,RB,RB,TE,K,DEF
I drafted from the #6 slot out of 12 and I felt I got a decent team, but not a very strong one. As early as the 5th round I felt that the talent available disappeared at an alarming rate. Now this could be a function of the level of competition, or the fact that it's a 12 team league, but I just felt that I was at the mercy of the waiver wire gods from my fifth pick onwards. Keep in mind that I saw at least 3 teams I thought were downright awful, so at worst, mine was probably middle of the pack. Here's what I managed to cobble together, so you decide. By the way, the host for the league provides a free feature that rates your team/draft. My team was rated awful and was ranked #11 out 12 with no hope to make the playoffs. I wish it were a person instead of an algorithm so that I could inform it that the team it rated #1 actually fits that description it provided to a T!

PickPlayerExpectedActualPoints
1.06Turner, Michael ATL RB8660
2.07White, Roddy ATL WR201914
3.06Schaub, Matt HOU QB2830-17
4.07Foster, Arian HOU RB7343180
5.06Davis, Vernon SFO TE5054-17
6.07Garcon, Pierre IND WR6267-16
7.06Owens, Terrell CIN WR837812
8.07Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB1069130
9.06Berrian, Bernard MIN WR12910242
10.07Henne, Chad MIA QB12611513
11.06Edelman, Julian NEP WR14612618
12.07Henderson, Devery NOS WR19213935
13.06Huggins, Kareem TBB RB17215010
14.07Bears, Chicago CHI Def1611630
15.06Tynes, Lawrence NYG PK1921742
16.07Gerhart, Toby MIN RB1771870

My thinking during this draft was just go for as many quality starters as possible, and worry about depth later. As you can see, the Schaub pick cost me dearly at WR2 or even RB2 depending on how you feel about Foster. (More on him later.) My third and 5th picks are unusual for me in that I usually like going heavy into the WR/RB before even bothering with the other positions. In this draft however, a couple of factors effected my picks: 1) There is one fewer WR/RB than a standard league, so the impact of the QB is greater. 2) With 12 teams in the league instead of my usual 10, getting a reliable high end performer at the single slots (QB/TE) is noticeably more valuable than in larger roster settings. I believe I did the right thing despite the fact that it felt wrong. Let's face it, I'm not happy if I can't go RB-RB-RB.

That draft took so long that I had to leave to go to my second draft of the day. As a result, I had queued up Chicago and Tynes, but got the Toby surprise when I checked my final results.


No Rulez: After that as a warm up, my drafting muscles were loose and I proceeded to draft a respectable team in Joni's league. I drafted out of the #8 slot in a 12 team league, and was not unhappy with the result:

Roster: QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/T, W/R, K, DEF, D, DB, DB, DL, DL,
As you can see this league has IDP, which tends to make the draft interesting once you hit the middle rounds (depending on the scoring system). I came in 11th last year, and was determined to make a better showing. It helped that I was not drafting LT or Steve Slaton this year. Here's the damage:

Redzone Renegades
1. (8) Michael Turner
2. (17) Miles Austin
3. (32) Jamaal Charles
4. (41) Anquan Boldin
5. (56) Jermichael Finley
6. (65) Michael Crabtree
7. (80) Eli Manning
8. (89) Ricky Williams
9. (104) Patrick Willis
10. (113) Jared Allen
11. (128) Julius Peppers
12. (137) Owen Daniels
13. (152) Jon Beason
14. (161) Will Smith
15. (176) Bernard Berrian
16. (185) Thomas Jones
17. (200) Chad Henne
18. (209) Davone Bess
19. (224) Kareem Huggins
20. (233) James Davis
21. (248) Chicago
22. (257) D.J. Williams
23. (272) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Six rounds into the draft I was pretty happy (not ecstatic) with how things were turning out. I belatedly noticed how quickly the RBs (quality and otherwise) were disappearing, but this year I've made a concerted effort to have more balanced rosters. The interesting result is that I do have more balanced teams, but I'm uncomfortable with my RB depth. I deliberately waited on a QB in this league, and I'm not unhappy with that result either. I feel very good about my individual defensive players this year, but while I was feasting at the IDP table, a certain GM gobbled up Mike Wallace and Big Ben, both of whom were next on my list of offensive players. Ricky Williams and Bernard Berrian were sort of best available there, but the thought behind both picks is the same: they have high upside potential and the combination of the two should give me decent production at the 2nd flex.

Back Alley Knife Fight: You would think with 2 drafts under my belt already, my fantasy football juices would be flowing and ready to carry me on to a championship in one of my own leagues.

You would be wrong.

The BAKF roster is: QB,WR,WR,RB,RB,TE,W/T,W/R,K,DEF
Scoring is pretty standard with performance bonuses of 3 points for QBs at 300 yards and 5 points for WRs and RBs at 100 yards. In addition, there's 0.5 points per reception.

Now to set the stage properly, I have to admit that when I signed on and saw that I had the #1 slot, I thought I had an automatic winner.

I was wrong. Horribly, horribly wrong.

It turns out that all that mock drafting and public league drafting does not prepare you as much for what to expect as does, say, doing your own top 200 list and running a one-man draft off that list (which is what I will do next year). Those guys last night.....they were vicious! Now let's take a look at the carnage:

Angry Minnesotans
1. (1) Chris Johnson
2. (20) Jamaal Charles
3. (21) Greg Jennings
4. (40) Arian Foster
5. (41) Antonio Gates
6. (60) Jermichael Finley
7. (61) Mike Sims-Walker
8. (80) Ricky Williams
9. (81) Justin Forsett
10. (100) Eli Manning
11. (101) Jacoby Jones
12. (120) Bernard Berrian
13. (121) Ben Roethlisberger
14. (140) Julian Edelman
15. (141) Chicago
16. (160) James Davis

In all honesty my good feeling about my team disappeared around pick #15 or so (second round), when it finally dawned on me how poor even my 2nd pick would be! To be fair, Ryan Grant was available and so was Peyton Manning so it didn't have to be a total disaster, but I just seemed to be completely thrown off by the fact that Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, or Miles Austin hadn't managed to drop to me here. Instead of Charles and Jennings, the textbook picks here are Peyton and Ryan.

Then it got worse.

By the round 4/5 turn, (my next pick), the cupboard had been robbed clean! I made the sexy and trendy pick Arian Foster, and locked up the TE position with Gates. Still available were Steve Smith, Ocho, Wells, Moreno, Rivers, Stewart, Spiller, Bowe, Forte, Crabtree, and Nicks. Look, I'm not saying I made an awful pick, but with the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to get a little depressed here. For example, had I known that TEs would go so late (often they don't last through round 4!) I would have nabbed Steve Smith and an RB and eventually picked up Finley in the same spot at pick 6. But of course while you're drafting you have no way of knowing that TEs will be going late. In tonight's draft, for example, Gates could easily be gone before pick 40. But let's see just what I was thinking:

Steve - As discussed, almost certainly a mistake to pass him up. In my defense, I was still in mourning for all the WRs I really like who didn't drop to me earlier.

Ocho - Despite all the hype I am very leery of ocho this year. One of my favorite NFL players, but fantasy-wise in any format, I have him ranked below Gates.

Wells - Has taken a tumble with his recent fumbles on the field. Seemed too much of a risk for this high a pick. Hightower has shot up a lot recently too. The Cardinals backfield is a mess too expensive to sort out in the 4th round of a fantasy draft.

Moreno - One of my favorites in the summer, his injury and the questionable decision-making at pro sports franchises make me leery of taking him here. Healthy, this would be a no-brainer.

Rivers - No all-pro lineman (holdout) and no all-pro Vjax (holdout) makes me wonder who, other than the guy I drafted, is going to catch all those passes that would make Rivers a bargain here?

Stewart - RBBC. Maybe a round later, but I just wonder about right here.

Spiller - Exciting to watch in pre-season, he still plays for the bills. 7th or 8th round perhaps, but never here.

Bowe - Too hard to figure him out. Chambers did well in KC when Dwayne was suspended, and a couple years ago we saw flashes of talent, but I swear this guy is too inconsistent to spend a round 4 pick on.

Forte - I actually like Forte this year, but all the hate in the media has caused me to drop him in my rankings too! Although to be fair, if auotpick had taken him here I would not have been upset at all.

Crabtree - Holds out in rookie season, fights with the team captain season 2. Hmmmm....

Nicks - Love Nicks....not here though.

I'd like to close this particular segment with something positive for those of you who think I'm grumpy:

Steve Slaton was a top 8 RB in 2008. Go back and check the records, it's true. Arian Foster finished last year strong and has emerged over the summer as a very impressive back who now has one more year in the offense, and plays with an all-star offensive cast that will keep defenses way too busy to put 8 in the box. Add to that the inherent uncertainty in any given pick and all of sudden this pick is looking killer. Besides, his O-line is better than Forte's and oh, did I add, we get 0.5 points per reception and the guy throwing the ball is #1 yardage king Matt Schaub baby! As for Gates, he's the Peyton Manning of TEs for crying out loud and as an end-picker you will OFTEN have to reach because that's just the way serpentine drafts operate. The idea here was that while the available WRs might be decent, they couldn't "win" their slot (WR2) (With what I admitted above is the notable exception of Steve Smith). So optimal pick maybe not, I locked up a starting slot with a #1 player so this won't be a draft killer.

I think I may have to do a trade or 2 in this league, but I always did like trading anyway.

Some notes from last night's draft:

1. QBs -- There was far more restraint in taking QBs last night than what I've witnessed in other drafts. In the mid-fourth round, you could still pick up the guys bunched at QB4/QB5/QB6. Which partially explains why I was disappointed in the WR selection by my second pick.

2. TEs -- Also a lot of restraint in taking TEs, so the good ones lasted through round 6! The combination of the QB and TEs means that WR/RB were getting hammered early and often...which, oddly, is how I draft, but not what I'm used to seeing among the masses. Which brings us to:

3. Defenses and kickers - I was in total shock when I realized that the second defense did not go off the board until the 9th round!? You normally only see this in expert drafts, but last night people were actually sticking to value and passing up the shiny JETS and 49ers baubles! Same thing happened with kickers, so the bargains I'm used to getting in middle/late rounds just never appeared. I'm hoping tonight is different.

On to the next one!


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