Wednesday, September 8, 2010

By The Numbers: Back Alley Knife Fight

One of my favorite parts of fantasy magazines was always the commentary/analysis that accompanied the expert mock drafts. I've tried to do something similar the last couple of years, but sometimes I get busy. This year, I wanted to add a little change of pace and try another method of crystal-balling the upcoming season based on draft results. So for the Back Alley Knife Fight, I assigned each drafted player their ADP based on Fantasy Football Calculator's latest available number prior to the draft as a means of quantifying my assessment of how well everybody did. The good news is that my general observations were borne out by the numbers. The bad news is; I don't have the best team! Worse, there's lots of competition in this league!

So the first thing I did was calculate a Roster score by adding up the average draft position of all the players drafted by team. This gives me an overall sense of the strength of the entire team. Remember, you want a low number for a score. Chris Johnson, for example has an ADP of only 1.4, while most defenses are above 100.


Roster
Angry Minnes... 1238
strikers 1239
(King) Baby ... 1244
Couch Potatoes2 1256.2
Bone Crushers 1270.5
Girlz Rule 1314.3
Hey Beerman!!! 1333.6
bench warmer 1362.3
Raider Maniacs 1363.8
Sweet Home C... 1404.4

My eyeball look at the league during draft night had already told me that King Baby, Couch Potatoes and Bone Crushers would have good teams, so it was nice to see the numbers bearing this out. And as commissioner, I'm pretty much required to put in a good showing. What surprised me, was that Beerman!!!'s squad seemed to be in the bottom half, so I considered this measure a little crude. Helpful, but a little rough. My other observation is that the scores were fairly tightly grouped. The top 5 teams had scores that varied by less than 5%.

So I did a second calculation designed to basically drop out the kickers and defenses and give me a measure of the strength of the fantasy teams at the skill positions. This score tabulated the ADP of the first 8 (or essentially the starters) for each of the fantasy teams. The results were interesting:


Bone Crushers 1270.5 267.7
(King) Baby ... 1244 292.9
Angry Minnes... 1238 298.7
Couch Potatoes2 1256.2 309.7
Sweet Home C... 1404.4 317.5
Hey Beerman!!! 1333.6 326.9
Raider Maniacs 1363.8 328.9
strikers 1239 341.4
Girlz Rule 1314.3 357.4
bench warmer 1362.3 413.9

Those who were at the live draft will recall all the comments I made about King Baby's drafting. Well, numbers don't lie. King Baby's squad scores in the top 3 spots on both overall roster and starter scoring. But Bone Crushers also did very well with the best score for the starting lineup. I think he's still miffed about last year and plans on walking away with the trophy. He has a good start. I will say, however, that a second eyeball look at the teams leaves me a little puzzled given the strength of Beerman!!!'s starters in particular. It doesn't seem to be reflected in the calculations.

Based on these calculations, Couch Potatoes, King Baby, Angry Minnesotans, and Bone Crushers would be the favorites in this league. But remember, these numbers came out pretty close, so I would expect at least a couple of surprises before December.

5.7 Andre Johnson (Hou - WR) (King) Baby ...

9 Randy Moss (NE - WR) (King) Baby ...

25.5 Tom Brady (NE - QB) (King) Baby ...

31.6 Pierre Thomas (NO - RB) (King) Baby ...

50.2 Jonathan Stewart (Car - RB) (King) Baby ...

53 Vernon Davis (SF - TE) (King) Baby ...

56.4 Pierre Garcon (Ind - WR) (King) Baby ...

61.5 Malcom Floyd (SD - WR) (King) Baby ...

73.5 Mike Wallace (Pit - WR) (King) Baby ...

100.5 Donald Brown (Ind - RB) (King) Baby ...

105.3 Fred Jackson (Buf - RB) (King) Baby ...

110.4 Donovan McNabb (Was - QB) (King) Baby ...

113.1 Anthony Gonzalez (Ind - WR) (King) Baby ...

135.4 Philadelphia (Phi - DEF) (King) Baby ... 638.2 Bench
144.4 Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR) (King) Baby ... 292.9 Top 8/Starters
168.5 David Akers (Phi - K) (King) Baby ... 1244 Roster
1.4 Chris Johnson (Ten - RB) Angry Minnes...

20.9 Greg Jennings (GB - WR) Angry Minnes...

25.6 Jamaal Charles (KC - RB) Angry Minnes...

39.3 Arian Foster (Hou - RB) Angry Minnes...

42.6 Antonio Gates (SD - TE) Angry Minnes...

43.4 Jermichael Finley (GB - TE) Angry Minnes...

56.5 Mike Sims-Walker (Jac - WR) Angry Minnes...

69 Justin Forsett (Sea - RB) Angry Minnes...

79.4 Ricky Williams (Mia - RB) Angry Minnes...

96.8 Eli Manning (NYG - QB) Angry Minnes...

108.9 Julian Edelman (NE - WR) Angry Minnes...

110.6 Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB) Angry Minnes...

110.9 Bernard Berrian (Min - WR) Angry Minnes...

122.4 Jacoby Jones (Hou - WR) Angry Minnes... 629 Bench
152.1 James Davis (Cle - RB) Angry Minnes... 298.7 Top 8/Starters
159.1 Chicago (Chi - DEF) Angry Minnes... 1238.9 Roster
16.8 Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB) bench warmer

23.7 Shonn Greene (NYJ - RB) bench warmer

40.8 Dallas Clark (Ind - TE) bench warmer

52.3 Knowshon Moreno (Den - RB) bench warmer

67 Vincent Jackson (SD - WR) bench warmer

68.1 Donald Driver (GB - WR) bench warmer

69.1 Reggie Bush (NO - RB) bench warmer

76.1 Jeremy Maclin (Phi - WR) bench warmer

78.3 Brandon Jacobs (NYG - RB) bench warmer

83.4 Brett Favre (Min - QB) bench warmer

97.3 Braylon Edwards (NYJ - WR) bench warmer

126.8 Baltimore (Bal - DEF) bench warmer

127.8 Sidney Rice (Min - WR) bench warmer

133.4 Alex Smith (SF - QB) bench warmer 647 Bench
149.6 Greg Olsen (Chi - TE) bench warmer 413.9 Top 8/Starters
152.7 Stephen Gostkowski (NE - K) bench warmer 1363.2 Roster
4.4 Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac - RB) Bone Crushers

7 Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB) Bone Crushers

20 Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR) Bone Crushers

30 Wes Welker (NE - WR) Bone Crushers

31.3 Cedric Benson (Cin - RB) Bone Crushers

41.9 Michael Crabtree (SF - WR) Bone Crushers

53.1 Ronnie Brown (Mia - RB) Bone Crushers

80 Owen Daniels (Hou - TE) Bone Crushers

87.2 Clinton Portis (Was - RB) Bone Crushers

96.7 Carson Palmer (Cin - QB) Bone Crushers

103.6 Tim Hightower (Ari - RB) Bone Crushers

107.2 Green Bay (GB - DEF) Bone Crushers

112.5 Lee Evans (Buf - WR) Bone Crushers

151 Jeremy Shockey (NO - TE) Bone Crushers 658.2 Bench
164.6 Miami (Mia - DEF) Bone Crushers 267.7 Top 8/Starters
180 Lawrence Tynes (NYG - K) Bone Crushers 1270.5 Roster
2.1 Adrian Peterson (Min - RB) Couch Potatoes2

18.8 Brandon Marshall (Mia - WR) Couch Potatoes2

20.5 DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB) Couch Potatoes2

37.3 Steve Smith (NYG - WR) Couch Potatoes2

37.4 Jahvid Best (Det - RB) Couch Potatoes2

54.1 Hakeem Nicks (NYG - WR) Couch Potatoes2

63.1 Brent Celek (Phi - TE) Couch Potatoes2

76.4 Jay Cutler (Chi - QB) Couch Potatoes2

83.1 T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bal - WR) Couch Potatoes2

84.1 Michael Bush (Oak - RB) Couch Potatoes2

98.6 Derrick Mason (Bal - WR) Couch Potatoes2

106.3 Montario Hardesty (Cle - RB) Couch Potatoes2

111.3 San Francisco (SF - DEF) Couch Potatoes2

126.8 Chad Henne (Mia - QB) Couch Potatoes2 610.2 Bench
156.3 Heath Miller (Pit - TE) Couch Potatoes2 309.7 Top 8/Starters
180 Mason Crosby (GB - K) Couch Potatoes2 1256.2 Roster
6.1 Frank Gore (SF - RB) Girlz Rule

12.2 Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR) Girlz Rule

35.9 Matt Schaub (Hou - QB) Girlz Rule

47.6 Joseph Addai (Ind - RB) Girlz Rule

56.5 Jason Witten (Dal - TE) Girlz Rule

59.2 Percy Harvin (Min - WR) Girlz Rule

69 Terrell Owens (Cin - WR) Girlz Rule

70.9 Joe Flacco (Bal - QB) Girlz Rule

84.7 Carnell Williams (TB - RB) Girlz Rule

88.4 Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR) Girlz Rule

93.6 Visanthe Shiancoe (Min - TE) Girlz Rule

98.2 Steve Breaston (Ari - WR) Girlz Rule

125.8 Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF) Girlz Rule

136.4 Willis McGahee (Bal - RB) Girlz Rule 627.1 Bench
149.8 Dallas (Dal - DEF) Girlz Rule 357.4 Top 8/Starters
180 Josh Scobee (Jac - K) Girlz Rule 1314.3 Roster
3.2 Ray Rice (Bal - RB) Hey Beerman!!!

14.3 Ryan Mathews (SD - RB) Hey Beerman!!!

27.9 Ryan Grant (GB - RB) Hey Beerman!!!

35.7 Steve Smith (Car - WR) Hey Beerman!!!

45.6 Chad Ochocinco (Cin - WR) Hey Beerman!!!

47.8 Dwayne Bowe (KC - WR) Hey Beerman!!!

63.6 Kevin Kolb (Phi - QB) Hey Beerman!!!

88.8 New York (NYJ - DEF) Hey Beerman!!!

92 LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ - RB) Hey Beerman!!!

95.4 Chris Cooley (Was - TE) Hey Beerman!!!

115.6 Darren Sproles (SD - RB) Hey Beerman!!!

118.3 Kellen Winslow (TB - TE) Hey Beerman!!!

120.9 Kenny Britt (Ten - WR) Hey Beerman!!!

133.9 Nate Kaeding (SD - K) Hey Beerman!!! 676.1 Bench
163.8 Cincinnati (Cin - DEF) Hey Beerman!!! 326.9 Top 8/Starters
166.8 Derek Anderson (Ari - QB) Hey Beerman!!! 1333.6 Roster
11.6 Steven Jackson (StL - RB) Raider Maniacs

13.3 Calvin Johnson (Det - WR) Raider Maniacs

31.2 Anquan Boldin (Bal - WR) Raider Maniacs

36.4 LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB) Raider Maniacs

43.3 Philip Rivers (SD - QB) Raider Maniacs

56 C.J. Spiller (Buf - RB) Raider Maniacs

63.7 Felix Jones (Dal - RB) Raider Maniacs

73.4 Johnny Knox (Chi - WR) Raider Maniacs

105.8 Zach Miller (Oak - TE) Raider Maniacs

108.4 Darren McFadden (Oak - RB) Raider Maniacs

118.5 Mike Williams (TB - WR) Raider Maniacs

124.3 Matthew Stafford (Det - QB) Raider Maniacs

130 Jabar Gaffney (Den - WR) Raider Maniacs

137.1 New Orleans (NO - DEF) Raider Maniacs 724.1 Bench
143.1 John Carlson (Sea - TE) Raider Maniacs 328.9 Top 8/Starters
167.7 Rob Bironas (Ten - K) Raider Maniacs 1363.8 Roster
7.9 Michael Turner (Atl - RB) strikers

14.9 Miles Austin (Dal - WR) strikers

24.6 DeSean Jackson (Phi - WR) strikers

34.3 Tony Romo (Dal - QB) strikers

46.2 Beanie Wells (Ari - RB) strikers

67 Tony Gonzalez (Atl - TE) strikers

72.8 Santana Moss (Was - WR) strikers

73.7 Marion Barber (Dal - RB) strikers

91.5 Matt Ryan (Atl - QB) strikers

93.3 Thomas Jones (KC - RB) strikers

94 Devin Aromashodu (Chi - WR) strikers

100 Minnesota (Min - DEF) strikers

102.7 Eddie Royal (Den - WR) strikers

121.5 Laurence Maroney (NE - RB) strikers 603 Bench
146.6 Garrett Hartley (NO - K) strikers 341.4 Top 8/Starters
148 Dustin Keller (NYJ - TE) strikers 1239 Roster
12.2 Drew Brees (NO - QB) Sweet Home C...

16.4 Roddy White (Atl - WR) Sweet Home C...

18.6 Peyton Manning (Ind - QB) Sweet Home C...

26.6 Marques Colston (NO - WR) Sweet Home C...

41.7 Matt Forte (Chi - RB) Sweet Home C...

59.2 Hines Ward (Pit - WR) Sweet Home C...

65.2 Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG - RB) Sweet Home C...

77.6 Jerome Harrison (Cle - RB) Sweet Home C...

84.3 Dez Bryant (Dal - WR) Sweet Home C...

91.3 Robert Meachem (NO - WR) Sweet Home C...

113.2 Devin Hester (Chi - WR) Sweet Home C...

138.1 Dexter McCluster (KC - WR,RB) Sweet Home C...

152.5 Jermaine Gresham (Cin - TE) Sweet Home C...

162 Ryan Longwell (Min - K) Sweet Home C... 741.4 Bench
165.5 Indianapolis (Ind - DEF) Sweet Home C... 317.5 Top 8/Starters
180 Kevin Boss (NYG - TE) Sweet Home C... 1404.4 Roster

2 comments:

The Virtual Bitch said...

Either I"m getting old or your blog has the smallest font ever!! I'm going to go buy some cheaters then I'll be back to read it.

J

Anonymous said...

I think blogger must have made some changes. I just took a look at the blog and sure enough, it definitely looks small! I'll try to change it, but keep in mind that I'm IT challenged!