NHNP: 2010 Fantasy Football Almanac

The 2010 season is over and once again, some of us are left licking our wounds and wondering if the game will ever make as much sense as it used to.  This season was littered with injuries, surprises and inexplicable breakdowns and the only GMs that survived it either had the luck of the Irish or uncanny skill.

I was lucky.

Let's dive into it!  The All-NHNP Team for 2010 is:

QB: Michael Vick
WR1:  Brandon Lloyd
WR2:  Roddy White
RB1:  Arian Foster
RB2:  Jamaal Charles
TE:    Jason Witten
W/T:  Greg Jennings
W/R:  Peyton Hillis
K:      Sebastian Janikowski
DEF: Pittsburgh Steelers

QB -- The 2010 season confirmed a suspicion that had been gnawing at my gut: QB is the most consistent position in fantasy. What sticks out at you when you look at this list?

Total Points

Vick
Rodgers
Brady
Manning
Rivers
Brees
Schaub
Freeman
Ryan
Manning II

That's right, the first thing you notice is that it's basically the usual suspects: QBs 2-7 could have been cut from the pre-season rankings and pasted here. QB is an island of predictability in a hobby that is becoming maddeningly random.  Now although he only played in 12 games this year, Michael Vick produced elite numbers in something like 75% of the games he played in. He was on an astounding number of fantasy teams that made the playoffs.  He singlehandedly turned lost seasons into championships. Will he do it again next year? No.  But this isn't next year.  It's this year.  And this year he is the runaway MVP.  Peyton Manning comes in 2nd this year followed closely by Aaron Rodgers. Both of these QBs had the fewest bad games after Vick and played in all 16 and 15 games respectively.  You Brady fans are out of luck because despite his higher point total, Tom would have hurt you in more weeks than either Aaron or Peyton.

Final Ranking

Vick
Manning
Rodgers

WR / W/T -- Roddy White gave you the most points this year so he makes my all-star team but Brandon Lloyd wins best WR because he gave you more stellar games and fewer bad ones than Roddy over the season.  For a guy who has never really had a good season and was catching balls from Kyle Orton, all I can say is kudos!  And please don't tell me you drafted Lloyd in the second round.  You know you didn't. Now, as for the third WR...the dreaded W/T slot, total score says Bowe over Jennings but.....

Jennings played in all 16 games to Bowe's 15 and had significantly fewer bad games during the season.  You know the ones.  Those weeks when you're looking at the score and you do that thing where you think or hope maybe the game isn't over and that's why you're staring at a single digit number. Dwayne was a huge surprise this year, particularly since he didn't explode until week 6 or something.  Next year he won't be such a bargain.

RB / W/R -- The starting RBs are slam dunks. Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles both had remarkable seasons and ended the year as the top 2 scorers at the position.  I had Charles on all of my fantasy teams this year, and since everyone let me have him, I'll take a bow. After those two however, there was a huge scrum in NHNP.  Five RBs were essentially tied for third scroing within 8 or so points of each other: Peterson, Johnson, Hillis, McCoy, and McFadden.  Frankly when he played, Darren McFadden was either #2 or #3 in the league but he only managed 13 games, so he dropped in my rankings.  But again, he won't come cheap next year.  AP and McCoy played only 15 games, and as you know in fantasy; every game counts.  That leaves us with Hillis and CJ.  Hillis was more consistent over the season so he wins. Now I'm only going to say this once: it is remarkable that CJ finished as a top 5 RB despite Vince Young's bafoonish behavior.  So while my 2011 rankings have AP #1 (he has finished top 3 EVERY year of his career so far), I will not have CJ too far behind.  He's a definite first-rounder in 2011, and a threat to repeat his 2009 numbers now that Jeff is firmly in control of the Titans.  For those of you wondering why it wasn't a WR at the W/R slot: no remaining WRs scored more points more consistently than did the fab 5 RBs we just reviewed.  Which brings us to:

TE -- 2010 was a disaster for the TE position.  The 2 brightest stars this season didn't get to play the whole season due to injuries.  Antonio Gates and Jermichael Finley were the top 2 TEs on a per game basis and will go very early in 2011 drafts, and rightfully so.  But Jason Witten played all 16 games, and ended the year as the top scorer at the position.


K -- Every FF player worth his salt knows that this changes every year.  This year's winner is Sebastian Janikowski .  Who plays on a team with an interesting distinction.  Apparently, the Oakland Raiders swept their division and did not make the playoffs.  I would appreciate it if someone would tell me how often that has happened.


DEF -- Statistically about the same as kickers, defenses are drafted differently because FF players have favorite teams and will often take that defense for that  reason alone. While the Steelers scored the most points this year, the defense you would have wanted to have down the stretch is the New England Patriots, who outscored every other defense by an embarrassing margin over the last 4 games, and I think, over the last 8.

Taking another look at the all-star team though, the fluctuation in performance from year to year really sinks in. In the NHNP league, I'm considering dropping one of the flex slots, which will make the QB score a higher percentage of the overall score.  I am considering this because QB production is the most predictable variable in FF, and I'd rather reward decisions based on that than those based on sheer luck.

On a parting note, I'd like for the NFL to come to a deal rather quickly because if there's no football in 2011, there's no fantasy football either.

...and you don't want to see what happens then!