Confessions of a Fantasy Football Addict

NHNP: 2011 League Awards

2012-01-22T16:05:00.005-05:00

League Awards for 2010

No Helmets No Pads
League Champion: daddypoopypants
Silver: Girlz Rule
Bronze: Jcougs

Regular Season Champion: Jcougs
Second Place: No Homers
Third Place: daddypoopypants
Fourth Place: Girlz Rule

League High Scorer: Jcougs
Golden Doughnut: Jcougs (Most high scores, 5)
Most Improved: Girlz Rule (9th to 4th)
The Rodney King Beatdown Award: No Homers (Most blowouts)**
The Mummy's Hand: No winner in 2011*
Toughest Schedule: benchwarmer
League MVP: No winner in 2011*

Wow! What a year! Lockouts, injuries, and record passing statistics in the NFL and in fantasy. In the No Helmets No Pads league, it was also the first time in league history that both the Minnesota Americans and the No Homers franchises walked away without any hardware.

Ugh.

First, congratulations again to daddypoopypants, Girlz Rule, and Jcougs. Poopypants has been knocking on the door for a while, so it was only a matter of time. Jcougs had a strong showing his first time out in the league, and only next year will tell if he can repeat. As for Girlz Rule, I swear I don't know how she does it, but just when you count her out .....what the.....is that Girlz???! Her silver trophy this year makes her tied for the all-time lead in hardware with the unfortunate gentlemen mentioned in the first paragraph.

Next year is going to be u g l y.

For those of you new to the league, you'll notice that I also list the regular season champion. I do this because getting the best record during the regular season is a big deal in a competitive league like this, and has a lot of talent/merit content to me. Jcougs managed an excellent 11-3 regular season record, and No Homers was not too far behind at 10-4. Kudos.

This year's award for most blowouts goes to No Homers. There was a actually a 3-way tie for this award, with Jcougs, and daddypoopypants, broken by the strength of schedule tie-breaker. For the second year in a row, no Mummy's Hand was awarded, though I thought it was cute that Devil Dogs had such a high score the last week of the season. There was no MVP selected this year, although I was tempted to select everyone, but thought that might be a bit corny.

I'm looking forward to next year (2012), so I can erase any memory of what happened to me during "The Season the Lockout Ruined!"

See you in the summer!

Back Alley Knife Fight: The 2011 Awards

2012-01-22T16:02:00.000-05:00

League Champion: Drunk (Wielder of the Rusty Dagger)
Second Place: Raider Maniacs
Third Place: Bone Crushers
Fourth Place: HeyYoCraig
League High Scorer: Drunk
The Rodney King Beatdown Award: Raider Maniacs (Most blowouts)
League MVP: Co-MVPs Bone Crushers and Raider Maniacs

Congratulations to Drunk, Wielder of the Rusty Dagger, master of all he surveys! In keeping with the name of the league, the battle for the Rusty Dagger was intense for the last few weeks, and came down to margins of error so small, that the slightest slip could cost you your fantasy life.

Unlike last year, when Raider Maniacs unceremoniously stomped the entire league into submission before intermission, and then left the room to attend to more important business, this year's finish was spectacular! It came down to the final week, the way they usually do in this league, and gave us a nail-biting 3-way tie at the top, where literally every point mattered! 2011 will be remembered for the three teams at the top; Drunk, a first-timer in the league, Raider Maniacs, the defending champion I've been sticking pins into since last year, and Bone Crushers, who had a great year and came so close that I don't want to play him twice next year. Each of those teams finished with impressive 12-5 records. When you consider that Raider Maniacs was rolling with Carson Palmer as his QB, you'll see why that record is even more impressive.

This year's League MVP was awarded to 2 teams: Bone Crushers, for most improved team in the league, and Raider Maniacs for managing to amass the best record in the league 2 years running.

It was fun as usual....okay, not as much fun as winning, but you get the picture.

HA!

See you in 2012!

NHNP: Judgement Day

2011-09-07T23:47:00.001-04:00

Fantasy Drafts 4

Me 0

The fifth annual NHNP draft took place recently. The results were so embarrassing for the commissioner, that a draft recap has been forbidden. The only bit of good news, is that for once, the draft winner (determined by some unknown algorithm, and displayed to the right of your league page) was one of the live draft participants.

Thank God for Sarah Connor!

Also took part in the Fantasy Football Librarian league draft last night. My RB2 is Knowshon Moreno and my QB is Stafford. It got so bad that the neighbors were coming by with butter and jam...and knives in their hands.

One last chance at redemption Saturday.

Back Alley Knife Fight: The Labor Day Massacre

2011-09-05T15:33:00.006-04:00

Fantasy Drafts 2

Me 0

Finally managed to draft my second September team after both NHNP and No Rulez were postponed due to technical difficulties. I'm glad this draft went off as scheduled because I was beginning to get superstitious! So the good news is that we had the draft. The bad news is that I got creamed!

And I'm the commissioner!

The fun got started on a fine Labor Day morning. Fine for those of us on the east coast that is. Seems the commissioner forgot that some of the league members were way out on the west coast. So for them it was an Army-like 7:00 wake-up! Given how well Raider Maniacs did last year, I wasn't inclined to feel sorry for him though. HA!

OK, this league features 2WR, 2RB, W/T, W/R and rewards QBs with a point every 20 yards as opposed to the standard 25 yards, and 0.4 PPR.

The turnout was good, with only a couple of autopicks as far as I could tell. I will spoil the ending by saying that I thought the autopicks actually did pretty well, no very well. I was bummed by that. For the 3^rd time this summer it occurred to me that Yahoo has been much more aggressive about the quality and timeliness of their rankings. That might sound like a good thing, but I think that unfortunately this rewards autopicks and penalizes live participation. Since we haven't had that draft yet, I'll be making adjustments to the NHNP settings to counter this.

Now for the fun.

Round 1

Adrian Peterson (Min - RB) Hey Beerman!!!

Chris Johnson (Ten - RB) Bone Crushers
Ray Rice (Bal - RB) Raider Maniacs
Arian Foster (Hou - RB) Drunk
Jamaal Charles (KC - RB) bench warmer
Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB) Boisebroncs
Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB) HeyYoCraig
Darren McFadden (Oak - RB) Angry Minnes...
LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB) Team Faith
Andre Johnson (Hou - WR) Girlz Rule

As you can see Round 1 went pretty much as expected with some interesting choices in the order of the top 5 based on concerns over Arians' Twittergate hammy. Mendenhall over McCoy and DMC in a partial PPR league is interesting, but not earth-shattering. Let's face it, DMC has injury issues which is why I was disappointed when I signed-on and noticed I would pick out of the 8^th slot: I knew I wouldn't be happy with my RB1, which for me, is the cornerstone of any fantasy team. No Jamaal Charles for me, or Ray Rice. I told myself it was just the first round and bargains might slip my way.

I was wrong. Horribly, horribly wrong.

Round 2

Michael Turner (Atl - RB) Girlz Rule
Roddy White (Atl - WR) Team Faith
Calvin Johnson (Det - WR) Angry Minnes...
Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR) HeyYoCraig
Hakeem Nicks (NYG - WR) Boisebroncs
Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac - RB) bench warmer
Drew Brees (NO - QB) Drunk
Greg Jennings (GB - WR) Raider Maniacs
Michael Vick (Phi - QB) Bone Crushers
Frank Gore (SF - RB) Hey Beerman!!!

Round 2 saw MJD dropping lower than some might have thought. I happen to share the concerns about the knee, despite his apparently good showing in the last preseason game. Even Girlz didn't take MJD, which should have alerted veteran GMs that something might be wrong here. More interesting, was Girlz pick of Turner over Gore despite the partial PPR scoring. Of course, I can't remember the last time Gore finished a full 16 game season, so there's that. Five wideouts were grabbed this round including my pick of Calvin Johnson. I can't speak for the other GMs, but my personal rankings call for this strategy once we get below the elite RBs. Look, Gore and MJD could finish top 10. The problem is, they might not finish the season. Benchwarmer and Beerman were the only two GMs to go RB-RB, and I envied them for it. Because even considering the number of questions with the available RBs, I am always uncomfortable leaving round 2 without my second running back.

Round 3

Peyton Hillis (Cle - RB) Hey Beerman!!!
Steven Jackson (StL - RB) Bone Crushers
Vincent Jackson (SD - WR) Raider Maniacs
Shonn Greene (NYJ - RB) Drunk
Philip Rivers (SD - QB) bench warmer
Tom Brady (NE - QB) Boisebroncs
Matt Forte (Chi - RB) HeyYoCraig
LeGarrette Blount (TB - RB) Angry Minnes...
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG - RB) Team Faith
Mike Wallace (Pit - WR) Girlz Rule

Round 3 saw a lot of the expected players drafted, but what was interesting to me was what positions were drafted. Beerman kicked off the party with his third RB! I was not paying attention at the time, but around round 6 I peeked and realized that dagnabit; the autopicking b@&$^#$ was kicking butt! I have Hillis lower in my personal rankings. The drop-off at the end of last year where he ended with like 5 single digit fantasy performances makes me leery of him. I can't tell whether that was just fatigue, or an injury. And while I agree that he will have a significant role in the Browns offense, that Hardesty kid was a pretty high draft pick and is not hurt this year. I was, however, paying attention to Bonecrushers because of his wicked track record and cringed when I realized that he had added a second top 15 RB to Michael Vick for an already lethal little trio. Of all the picks this round Shonn Greene and Blount were the only players that might have gone higher than their ADPs. I justify those picks by saying that look, you need RBs and you have to get past all the questions and just take a few at some point. Drunk was also building up a killer squad, but in my personal version of whistling past the graveyard, I told myself that it's only round 3, so of course everyone's teams look good.

Yeah right.

Fantasy experts tell you not to get attached to particular players, but I physically felt the gut punch when Girlz nabbed Wallace here. For some reason, I had secretly hoped he would make it back to my next pick. For my part I now had 2 RBs and 1WR in my feeble attempt to counteract my personal RB-bias and draft a balanced team. Don't get me wrong, I'm very happy to have Megatron as my WR1, but the fact that Blount is my RB2 should be a big flashing neon sign that the draft was not going well. It was round 3 and already the draft was extremely competitive.

Round 4

Miles Austin (Dal - WR) Girlz Rule
Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR) Team Faith
Tony Romo (Dal - QB) Angry Minnes...
DeSean Jackson (Phi - WR) HeyYoCraig
Felix Jones (Dal - RB) Boisebroncs
DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB) bench warmer
Mike Williams (TB - WR) Drunk
Wes Welker (NE - WR) Raider Maniacs
Dwayne Bowe (KC - WR) Bone Crushers
Peyton Manning (Ind - QB) Hey Beerman!!!

I never saw it coming. I was doubled over from the Wallace nab, when I felt a bone-crunching pain in my jaw. That's the feel of a thundering right cross; Miles Austin disappearing just 2 picks before my next pick. You ever get to that stage where your vision begins to dim, and everything is shrouded in a kind of dark filter? You know, like right before you pass out? Well between the gut punch and the right cross, and that crazy 30 second timer the commissioner set up, that was me right before I clicked on the hated, dreaded, starlet-dating Cowboy QB.

This was not going well at all.

Felix Jones may be the most interesting pick this round as he has flown up the ADP ranks as a result of his preseason play and the moving of Marion the Barbarian to the Windy City. I think that getting an RB was the right instinct. (Who am I kidding? I always think it's the right move!) But I wonder if DeAngelo was not the superior choice here. And yes; that meant that bench warmer was still taking names. Beerman's autopick grabbed Peyton, and in the hour after the draft I had ESPN on the TV and heard what is becoming an increasingly loud chorus of concern over #18's health. But to give you an idea of how well Beerman's autopick did; even with a projected score of 0 for Peyton in week 1, Beerman is projected to win his first game. Team Faith had an ideal 2RBs and 2WRs, and good ones at that.

Round 5

Brandon Lloyd (Den - WR) Hey Beerman!!!
Dez Bryant (Dal - WR) Bone Crushers
Ryan Mathews (SD - RB) Raider Maniacs
Mark Ingram (NO - RB) Drunk
Brandon Marshall (Mia - WR) bench warmer
Antonio Gates (SD - TE) Boisebroncs
Beanie Wells (Ari - RB) HeyYoCraig
Knowshon Moreno (Den - RB) Angry Minnes...
Stevie Johnson (Buf - WR) Team Faith
Matt Ryan (Atl - QB) Girlz Rule

Round 5 was the first round where I thought people's individual preferences were starting to take over from the default settings. But with the possible exception of Gates, I found it interesting that every single pick in round 5 was a high-upside pick. Lloyd and Johnson were both top 10 receivers last year but went in round 5. They could be the bargains of the draft. Bone Crushers showed a lot of faith in Dez, who has so far been all potential and no production. Dez is routinely ranked in the top 15 WRs however, so round 5 sounds cheap to me. I like the Ingram grab by Drunk, which would have been my pick had he slipped. Wells is not my favorite here, as I prefer both Best and Moreno. But to be fair, Wells could be a top 15 RB this year. Again, if he delivers on his potential. As for my Moreno pick, I have Best ranked higher, but was trying to diversify my roster from my other FF teams. I like Moreno for top 15 this year. He finished #19 in this format and I have to believe he's even more settled in the offense, despite the departure of Josh “The Devil's Handmaiden” McDaniels. John Fox may like depth at the RB position, but clearly has no trouble installing a primary back (see DeAngelo Williams 2008). Anyway, it was either that or roll the dice on concussion boy. I chose the Bronco. Now I went into the round with QB/WR/RB/RB, so you might think another WR was in order, but I felt that RB was far thinner here than WR so I had better grab Knowshon now.

Round 6

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE - RB) Girlz Rule
Jahvid Best (Det - RB) Team Faith
Mario Manningham (NYG - WR) Angry Minnes...
Mike Tolbert (SD - RB) HeyYoCraig
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB) Boisebroncs
Jermichael Finley (GB - TE) bench warmer
Anquan Boldin (Bal - WR) Drunk
Reggie Bush (Mia - RB) Raider Maniacs
Jason Witten (Dal - TE) Bone Crushers
Jeremy Maclin (Phi - WR) Hey Beerman!!!

Girlz kicked off round 6 with bang, grabbing the law firm. Now BGE finished RB15 last year, so this could be a huge bargain. Except I trust Belichick only slightly more than I trust Shanahan...which is ZERO. The Pats drafted those two rookies and as far as I can tell, are more likely to institute a committee situation than give BGE another 229 carries in 2011. Now the interesting trivia question, is whether I would have taken Best if Faith had passed on him, rather than taking that WR. We'll never know. The top 2 WRs on my board at this point were Super Mario and Maclin. Now Maclin is an Eagle, which you would think would give him the edge. But it was a coin toss and that evil little 30 second clock was in the red, warning me about the dangers of autopick, should I fail to select the player of my choice now!

It's round 6, so most of these picks were still really good. I did not like Boiserbroncs pick of Big Ben here, because he already had Tom Brady. I know we're allowed to do whatever we want with our picks, but this struck me as trying to hurt someone else's team rather than legitimately build your own. In this format you play a total of 6 WRs and RBs compared to the one QB. We'll have to see how that plays out. Other than BGE, Reggie Bush was the only other pick I considered a bit of a gamble. I know he's looked good in preseason, but it's the Dolphins. So it's hard for me to get too excited about his value. But who knows, maybe this is the year where Reggie finally achieves the superstar performance levels that were expected when he was selected #2 overall in the NFL draft. Besides, Raiders kicked my butt last year, so who am I to question his choices.

Round 7
1.	Dallas Clark (Ind - TE)	Hey Beerman!!!
2.	Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR)	Bone Crushers
3.	Marques Colston (NO - WR)	Raider Maniacs
4.	Kenny Britt (Ten - WR)	Drunk
5.	Vernon Davis (SF - TE)	bench warmer
6.	Percy Harvin (Min - WR)	Boisebroncs
7.	Aaron Hernandez (NE - TE)	HeyYoCraig
8.	Owen Daniels (Hou - TE)	Angry Minnes...
9.	Matt Schaub (Hou - QB)	Team Faith
10.	Ryan Grant (GB - RB)	Girlz Rule

If you had told me Dallas Clark would be available in round 7 of a FF draft, I would have called you crazy. But this was definitely the TE round as 4 of them were grabbed, and for bench warmer, his second. Nothing controversial in the picks, but Team Faith really did well by getting Schaub in round 7?! Even at this round I had Faith pegged as a top 4 team with fantastic overall balance and strength at every position. Hernandez over Daniels at TE is the only eyebrow raiser here. My only speculation is that HeyYoCraig is a closet Patriots fan or went to college with Aaron. Interestingly, Hernandez is a sleeper pick with more than one fantasy expert, and one site has him ranked TE11. So this pick could work out. Ryan Grant was a consensus top 12 back before his injury, who has not looked good in preseason. Given the availability of Hightower and Ochostinko, I wonder if this was the best pick. We'll find out soon.

Round 8

Marcedes Lewis (Jac - TE) Girlz Rule 2.
Austin Collie (Ind - WR) Team Faith 3.
Fred Jackson (Buf - RB) Angry Minnes... 4.
Santana Moss (Was - WR) HeyYoCraig 5.
Chad Ochocinco (NE - WR) Boisebroncs 6.
Mike Thomas (Jac - WR) bench warmer 7.
Jimmy Graham (NO - TE) Drunk 8.
Tim Hightower (Was - RB) Raider Maniacs 9.
Julio Jones (Atl - WR) Bone Crushers 10.
Sidney Rice (Sea - WR) Hey Beerman!!!

I would love to accuse Girlz of a Homer pick, but Lewis finished last year TE4. I have seen plenty of differing opinions about Lewis this summer, which I find puzzling considering how well he did last year. I grabbed Fred Jackson because....okay I was out of ideas. Seriously. By this point of the draft, I didn't like my team, and I liked the available players even less. In retrospect, I should have grabbed Moss given the gaping hole at my W/T, even Ocho or Graham would have been good. But I'm fixated on depth at RB, so I took a Bills player. Yeach! Now he did finish RB20 last year, which means he should definitely be on a roster, but one wonders whether CJ Spiller will emerge this year and destroy Freddy's value. As far as I'm concerned, Moss and Graham were the picks of the round. The Moss pick gave HeyYoCraig a very solid WR corps as Moss is easily inside the top 30 ranks for WR. He had a great preseason, and should finish top 20-25. Drunk getting Graham this late was a silly bargain. I have Graham just below Owens, but I paid a lot more for my TE! Finally, Julio Jones over Sidney Rice is a really interesting choice. Julio will be a WR2 and a rookie with a limited offseason, and Rice is the WR1, albeit with Tavaris, on a team that is now rumored to be dealing for Carson Palmer. Stay Tuned.

Round 9

Green Bay (GB - DEF) Hey Beerman!!!
Matthew Stafford (Det - QB) Bone Crushers
Josh Freeman (TB - QB) Raider Maniacs
Philadelphia (Phi - DEF) Drunk
Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF) bench warmer
Joseph Addai (Ind - RB) Boisebroncs
New York (NYJ - DEF) HeyYoCraig
Michael Bush (Oak - RB) Angry Minnes...
Kellen Winslow (TB - TE) Team Faith
Brandon Jacobs (NYG - RB) Girlz Rule

Round 9 - Can you find the autopicks? In HeyYoCraig's defense, he said he knows baseball, so wasn't aware he should wait on defenses. On the other hand, he got the Jets, so I think he'll be happy. Here's my concern; with the exception of Stafford, it doesn't look like someone autopicking in this league is paying a high penalty for not being live. So I'll be eliminating one of the flex positions in the NHNP league. There. I feel better already.

Bone Crushers getting Stafford is literally a function of his draft spot. I was eyeballing Stafford ever since the last round but felt compelled to grab Jackson for the RB depth that I will almost certainly have to rely on during the season. But it was tough to leave him there for the vultures. Addai down this low has got be a value pick, and my next favorite after Stafford. Me, I was buying handcuffs.

Don't ask.

Round 10

New England (NE - DEF) Girlz Rule 2.
Cedric Benson (Cin - RB) Team Faith 3.
Malcom Floyd (SD - WR) Angry Minnes... 4.
Lance Moore (NO - WR) HeyYoCraig 5.
Baltimore (Bal - DEF) Boisebroncs 6.
Mason Crosby (GB - K) bench warmer 7.
Nate Kaeding (SD - K) Drunk 8.
Marshawn Lynch (Sea - RB) Raider Maniacs 9.
Daniel Thomas (Mia - RB) Bone Crushers 10.
Neil Rackers (Hou - K) Hey Beerman!!!

Valley of the autopicks round II. You'd think I'd be used to Girlz nabbing players I like, but I still swore when I saw the New England defense disappear off the board. Cedric Benson may end up being the steal of the draft. He finished RB16 last year, which means he should be starting in our league, not slumming in round 10 among the kickers and defenses! Of course, I hate Cedric Benson and passed on him despite my obsession with RBs.

Probably the most disturbing realization came to me when I started to do my patented Power Rankings Assessment. My quick eyeball test of all the drafted teams told me that there were a lot of good teams. In other words, there is a lot of parity in this league. This is not a foregone conclusion by the way. I have been in many leagues that started off lopsided with 2 or 3 powerhouses surrounded by the sheep to be slaughtered. But what made me do a double-take was the fact that of the top 5 teams based on the draft, 3 of the teams were autopick! And those were all of the autopick teams! In other words, every single one of the autopicked teams did well by my own personal power ranking assessment!

Shocking and depressing!

BAKF 2011 Post-Draft Power Rankings

1. Drunk – Drew Brees, Arian Foster and a solid overall lineup with no perceivable weaknesses makes this a really tough team. Of course, he'll be praying for the Saints to do well, as he has 3 starters from that team.

1. Faith – No weaknesses. May even have an edge over Beerman considering #18's condition.

3. Hey Beerman!!! – No weaknesses. If Peyton plays 12 or more games, Beerman should be in the playoffs.

4. Bone Crusher – Michael Vick could single-handedly win him the title. Only weakness is at W/R, which, given his level of activity in the league, will probably disappear by week 2 or 3. He is one RB sleeper from being tied for or in sole place of best overall team, and with all those injuries out there....

5. bench warmer – Top 5 QB, excellent RBs. Weaknesses at WR2 and possibly W/T, but easily addressed on waivers.

As for my team, I'd say the good news is that it isn't terrible. The bad news is, it has a lot of holes. Romo is ranked/projected for the back half of the top 10. Which means he won't hurt me, but in this league, he won't help me. That means I need to make up for that with strength in another area, and I don't see that on my roster. My biggest weakness is at WR or W/T depending on how you move the players. Super Mario is more of a solid WR3 or W/T, which would make my weakness at WR2. Unfortunately, I know of no easy way to address a WR2 weakness without causing an equivalent weakness at another position in a trade. While my bench is littered with lottery tickets (potential fantasy sleepers and gems), let's all keep in mind that I've never won Powerball. My plan going forward has to be for one of my bench players to pay off and either fill the gap (Jordy, Greg, or Emmanuel) or become valuable enough as trade bait for me to upgrade Floyd to something like a top 20 WR. If I can manage that, I think I have a decent shot at a top 4 finish.

All told, a fun, competitive draft. Good Luck this season!

Yahoo Problems!! NHNP Alert!

2011-09-01T18:18:00.003-04:00

Due to Yahoo's server problems, our entire league was autopicked. The NHNP draft has been rescheduled for Tuesday, Sept 6 at 11:00 PM eastern. BYOC

Bring your own caffeine.

Razzball Draft Recap: Crash and Burn!

2011-09-01T00:21:00.006-04:00

Fantasy Drafts 1
Me 0

Just participated in the first of my “serious” drafts and let me tell you, it was ug-ly! This was the draft hosted/sponsored by one of my favorite fantasy sites, Razzball. The Razzballin' Rough Riders met tonight, at 7:30 eastern to draft fantasy teams that would duke it out for the 2011 season. I expected some really tough competition given the host, and was not disappointed, though (spoiler alert) some guy named Chedda seems to have decided to lose the league before the draft was over. Personally, I figured “That's novel”, but hey, it's a free country and a free league, and maybe he doesn't take it as seriously as a fantasy nerd like me. Anyhow, there was a good turnout, and the guys who showed up made it lots of fun. This league features 3WRs, 2RBs, and a flex. On to the carnage.

ROUND 1
1	Adrian Peterson, Min RB	The Rhinos
2	Ray Rice, Bal RB	That's So Ravens
3	Jamaal Charles, KC RB	Belichick's Video Rentals
4	Chris Johnson*, Ten RB	Schmohawk Surprise
5	LeSean McCoy, Phi RB	Salty Chocolate Balls
6	Darren McFadden, Oak RB	Clear Eyes Full Hearts
7	Rashard Mendenhall, Pit RB	My Forte
8	Andre Johnson, Hou WR	Killa Beez
9	Arian Foster, Hou RB	Ten Inch Ditkas
10	Aaron Rodgers, GB QB	MAD MEN
11	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB	RT Langes
12	Roddy White, Atl WR	Chedda Bob

The first thing that should pop out at you, is Arian Foster slumming at the 9^thdraft slot, a neighborhood he has heretofore been unseen in. This free-fall was courtesy of his freedom of information slash open source posting of the MRI of his gimpy hammy on Twitter. He insisted that he was okay, and wouldn't have posted it if he were hurt. Hmmm...well, 8 fantasy football GMs disagreed with Dr. Foster and left him to the tender mercies of, you guessed it, autopick. Could this turn out to be the steal of the draft? Sure. And that blind date your aunt Selma set up for you could turn out to be a supermodel. But let's not put all our allowance money on it. I'm going to take a wild guess and say that the Texans will be the first professional sports franchise with a MRI/Twitter policy.

Chris Johnson did not drop as much as I would have thought. Apparently Mr. Schmohawk (who ruined my draft by picking extremely well right NEXT to me!) is confident that the Titans know where their bread is buttered and will be forthcoming with the Chedda. Spoiler alert, Schmohawk, by my reckoning, had the best draft.

Now I'm not saying I want CJ2K to hold out, but......

MADMEN grabbed Aaron, and by the time we got to the 4^th round it seemed to me that he had gotten away with it. Yes, I'm envious. I would NEVER take a QB in round 1, especially when we have to play 6 running backs and wide receivers, and that's before bye week considerations and injuries. Of course, he had a better draft slot than I did. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

ROUND 2
13	Calvin Johnson, Det WR	Chedda Bob
14	Drew Brees, NO QB	RT Langes
15	Frank Gore, SF RB	MAD MEN
16	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR	Ten Inch Ditkas
17	Tom Brady, NE QB	Killa Beez
18	Michael Vick, Phi QB	My Forte
19	Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR	Clear Eyes Full Hearts
20	Michael Turner, Atl RB	Salty Chocolate Balls
21	Steven Jackson, StL RB	Schmohawk Surprise
22	LeGarrette Blount, TB RB	Belichick's Video Rentals
23	Matt Forte, Chi RB	That's So Ravens
24	Vincent Jackson, SD WR	The Rhinos

Not much to see here folks. Three more QBs were snagged in this round. The only pick that was out of order, I think, was my pick of Blount over Forte and Vjax. I'm not saying Marion Barber gives me the willies so much as I'm saying that Forte's production is erratic and he plays behind a Godawful offensive line. I like him from his rookie year, when I got him cheap and he gave me great numbers, but What have you done for me lately? As for Vjax, love him this year, but this roster demands that I attend to the RB slots early, so I did...and I payed for it!

ROUND 3
25	Mark Ingram, NO RB	The Rhinos
26	Philip Rivers, SD QB	That's So Ravens
27	Shonn Greene, NYJ RB	Belichick's Video Rentals
28	Mike Wallace, Pit WR	Schmohawk Surprise
29	Greg Jennings, GB WR	Salty Chocolate Balls
30	Felix Jones, Dal RB	Clear Eyes Full Hearts
31	Peyton Hillis, Cle RB	My Forte
32	Miles Austin, Dal WR	Killa Beez
33	Reggie Wayne, Ind WR	Ten Inch Ditkas
34	DeAngelo Williams, Car RB	MAD MEN
35	DeSean Jackson, Phi WR	RT Langes
36	Antonio Gates, SD TE	Chedda Bob

The Ingram pick is the flashing neon sign of round 3. It's completely out of line with his ADP, but if we ever have a real live league Happy Hour, maybe I'll get to ask Rhino whether his underwear is Crimson, or Black and Gold? I was appalled by how ravaged the RB ranks were by this point, and gambled my entire season on the idea that the flashes we saw at the end of last year, as well as 2009, and this preseason, really are a sampling of the fantasy goodness to come from the Greene Machine. I mean I passed up Wallace, Jennings, Austin and Wayne for crying out loud. Shonn had better perform dagnabit! The other interesting picks in this round were Felix Jones and DeAngelo Williams, both of which I rate reaches warranting emergency chiropractic intervention . Felix was autopick, which implies that the absent GM actually valued him that highly. But MAD MEN doesn't have that excuse, as he was present and accounted for. DeAngelo has been good to fantasy owners in the past, but to me it's too much wear and tear, and, um, tear. Chedda grabs the first tight end in what I consider to be the first of several questionable choices by our resident cheese GM. I've loved Gates in the past, but as with so many of this year's players, his health is a mystery wrapped in a riddle, hidden by a cloaking device.

Um, no thanks.

So after 3 rounds, I've got myself 3 RBs and am in sole possession of the dreaded RB-RB-RB strategery.

ROUND 4
37	Mike Williams, TB WR	Chedda Bob
38	Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB	RT Langes
39	Knowshon Moreno, Den RB	MAD MEN
40	Peyton Manning, Ind QB	Ten Inch Ditkas
41	Beanie Wells, Ari RB	Killa Beez
42	Jahvid Best, Det RB	My Forte
43	Dez Bryant, Dal WR	Clear Eyes Full Hearts
44	Tony Romo, Dal QB	Salty Chocolate Balls
45	Dwayne Bowe, KC WR	Schmohawk Surprise
46	Wes Welker, NE WR	Belichick's Video Rentals
47	Tim Hightower, Wsh RB	That's So Ravens
48	Ryan Mathews, SD RB	The Rhinos

Round 4 was, for some GMs, the beginning of the end. Although hilariously, I'm not sure they were aware of it. MAD MEN in contrast, was setting himself up for a rather nice season with the snag of Mr. Moreno, probably the most underrated RB on the boards. Remember, MAD MEN has Aaron “the boy” Rodgers, and Moreno is his RB3!! Ditka, by this point, was single-handedly making this draft worth my attendance. Seriously, with all the question marks on this team, I thought he'd change his name (mid-draft) to the Riddlers!

Arian “327 carries and a bad hammy” Foster
Larry “Cards got Kolb 2010 NOT Kolb 2009” Fitzgerald
Reggie “Painter? Really?! LOL or , oh that's right, I threw Collins under the bus” Wayne
Peyton “Did we pay Kerry $4 mil to sit on the bench?” Manning

Don't get me wrong, if all of those picks work out, he's in the playoffs. But you're not betting my lunch money on that proposition. A Six foot six QB with orthopedic issues, at 35 years of age, with a juicy new contract under his belt, with a lockout extended period of non-professionally assisted not-quite recovery, is not how I want to start my 2011 fantasy season.

Beanie Wells at 41 is the worst pick so far. We've seen Beanie. We know Beanie. “He is, who we thought he was.” And what he's not, is a 4^th round pick!! I'd take any of the other players in this round over Wells. Go with God Killa. Go with God.

In a pattern he was to repeat throughout the draft, Schmohawk Surpise T-Boned me by taking the Rainbowe. I was not a happy camper. After the second or third snarffle of one of my prospective picks, I actually chatted that he really should have bought me dinner first. Seriously though, I much prefer an idiot next door during the draft. I enjoy it more, and I end up with a much better team. When the guy next to me drafts like he has spyware on my computer, it makes for a loooooong night.

The Hightower pick unleashed a torrent of dark sentiment concerning the Redskins and as well as Shanahan. And while I would usually chuckle and agree, the fact is that even in this early round the pickings really were getting slim. I've seen Hightower this preseason. I'm not so sure that was a bad pick here.

Anyway, my draft was tanking because the best player available was Welker. In case you don't get the reference (which would make you a fake football fan) my team name is disparaging of the Patriots. To my chagrin, this would happen again as several Pats now infest my roster.

Mike Wallace as my WR1 is starting to look better than Shonn as my RB3. But I've always been a sucker for a good RB, especially when he has top 5 potential (see Thomas Jones 2009). So pangs of regret mixed in with hand-rubbing glee and optimism is how I would describe it.

ROUND 5
49	Santonio Holmes, NYJ WR	The Rhinos
50	Brandon Lloyd, Den WR	That's So Ravens
51	Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB	Belichick's Video Rentals
52	Marques Colston, NO WR	Schmohawk Surprise
53	Jeremy Maclin, Phi WR	Salty Chocolate Balls
54	Steve Johnson, Buf WR	Clear Eyes Full Hearts
55	Jermichael Finley, GB TE	My Forte
56	Fred Jackson, Buf RB	Killa Beez
57	Jason Witten, Dal TE	Ten Inch Ditkas
58	BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE RB	MAD MEN
59	Jonathan Stewart, Car RB	RT Langes
60	Percy Harvin, Min WR	Chedda Bob

Round 5 finds me panicking about my QB position, because while I usually like to wait on this position, there are limits to even my fortitude. Eli Manning anyone? Um, no. It was extremely difficult to pass up on Colston, Maclin, Stevie Johnson, and Witten, but all I had to do was picture rolling with Eli. Twenty-five interceptions and delusions of grandeur in that recent interview are quite enough thank you. Big Ben? Click. Here's a guy who was clocking top 10 QB numbers and around 270 YPG when he finally got on the field last year, and I grabbed him at like QB8. Given that this is a 12 team league, and they picked up in pre-season where they left off last year, I'll take it. Not to mention that I hate the Giants anyway. MAD MEN made his first mistake in the draft by grabbing the law firm instead of Harvin. The Patriots drafted at least two rookie running backs who have looked good in preseason. I just don't see BGE getting the workload he did last year which is the only way this price is justified. Britt, Manningham, and Marshall were also available. But would I get any of those guys? Noooooooo!

Because the fantasy gods hate me!

ROUND 6
61	Cedric Benson, Cin RB	Chedda Bob
62	Kenny Britt, Ten WR	RT Langes
63	Mario Manningham, NYG WR	MAD MEN
64	Ryan Grant, GB RB	Ten Inch Ditkas
65	Dallas Clark, Ind TE	Killa Beez
66	Brandon Marshall, Mia WR	My Forte
67	Matthew Stafford, Det QB	Clear Eyes Full Hearts
68	Austin Collie, Ind WR	Salty Chocolate Balls
69	Joseph Addai, Ind RB	Schmohawk Surprise
70	Owen Daniels, Hou TE	Belichick's Video Rentals
71	Anquan Boldin, Bal WR	That's So Ravens
72	Vernon Davis, SF TE	The Rhinos

Round Six started off with another classic move by the Big Cheese: Cedric Benson?! I am still convinced that Chedda made this pick just so he could get the complimentary orange jump suit. I don't like Cedric, I never have. He had a ridiculous (300+) number of carries last year and a poor YPC, he clearly has a discipline problem, and frankly, I think he's worn down. But most importantly, I really don't like Cedric Benson! Chedda is going straight to the underworld, and that's all there is to it. This was the last round with serious talent, and I note that it's an even-numbered round, and the good stuff was gone by the first half of the round....leaving me SOL. The only good news is that I can take this experience into my 12 team draft this weekend. Unfortunately for me, even the Addai pick will probably work for Mr. Schmohawk. Based on some analysts' observations, Addai has apparently outplayed both Donald Brown and Delone Carter. Now I haven't had a chance to watch Indy this summer, so I do not have my own, independent opinion on this, but the Schmohawk may benefit from this with the Addai snag. Boldin was tempting, particularly considering the need for 3 or even 4 WRs in this set-up. So of course I went with........TE. At this point I was more afraid of what comes after Owen Daniels, than I was of missing out on Anquan, and his unimpressive start in Baltimore last year. But seriously, I knew the wheels were falling off my draft wagon by how unappetizing the remaining names were already. Ditka made an impressive comeback from last round's bout of sanity (with Witten!) by going with Ryan Grant?!? A player coming back from injury, who has not played well in preseason, was already being eclipsed by a younger RB, on what is clearly becoming an increasingly pass-first team. Good Move Ditka!

Ten inches my @$$ !

ROUND 7
73	Matt Ryan, Atl QB	The Rhinos
74	Sidney Rice, Sea WR	That's So Ravens
75	Chad Ochocinco, NE WR	Belichick's Video Rentals
76	Matt Schaub, Hou QB	Schmohawk Surprise
77	Reggie Bush, Mia RB	Salty Chocolate Balls
78	Lance Moore, NO WR	Clear Eyes Full Hearts
79	Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB	My Forte
80	Mike Thomas, Jac WR	Killa Beez
81	Mike Tolbert, SD RB	Ten Inch Ditkas
82	James Starks, GB RB	MAD MEN
83	Marcedes Lewis, Jac TE	RT Langes
84	Sam Bradford, StL QB	Chedda Bob

First of all, kudos to Rhinos for waiting this long on a QB. And Matty ice no less. At this point of the draft I still only had one WR!!! So of course the best player available was....a (&*@#&$*(&^$% Patriot! I am hoping that folks are nice enough to trade for these Patriot players, but I'm not holding my breath. Schmohawk getting Schaubby this late just proves that life is not fair. I believe that was the pick that sealed his championship. Reggie Bush on the radar means you've gone p r e t t y deep into your draft. Will he outscore Lynch? Who knows. But I think I would have picked Tolbert over those two, which is weird because now I can't make fun of Ditka this round! I thought Starks was a decent pick down here. A bit of a gamble, but seriously, take a look at the neighborhood! Lewis down here, could be a steal. Some sites have him as high as TE5.

ROUND 8
85	Josh Freeman, TB QB	Chedda Bob
86	Pierre Garcon, Ind WR	RT Langes
87	Santana Moss, Wsh WR	MAD MEN
88	Brandon Jacobs, NYG RB	Ten Inch Ditkas
89	C.J. Spiller, Buf RB	Killa Beez
90	Julio Jones, Atl WR	My Forte
91	Michael Bush, Oak RB	Clear Eyes Full Hearts
92	Jordy Nelson, GB WR	Salty Chocolate Balls
93	Jimmy Graham, NO TE	Schmohawk Surprise
94	Johnny Knox, Chi WR	Belichick's Video Rentals
95	Robert Meachem, NO WR	That's So Ravens
96	A.J. Green, Cin WR	The Rhinos

Apparently, the Big Cheese actually wins the prize for waiting on QB, and does it the right way by taking Freeman and Bradford with back-to-back picks. See, he did something right! I thought there were some decent values in this round starting with Santana Moss. I like Jordy Nelson at this value, and Schmohawk getting Jimmy Graham in the 8^th round was a clear message that I need to get my butt to church more often.

After that round, the picks get ugly and the names become absolutely obscure. I'm not sure what I would do differently, though obviously moving down in draft order would be the first step. I thought the clear overall winner of the draft was Schmohawk, followed by:

Salty

Ravens

Forte

Mad Men

Oddly, I thought Chedda had the best corps of WRs, but since he devoted like 4 of his first 5 picks to WRs, you kind of expect that. HA! As for myself, here's what I ended up with:

BELICHICK'S VIDEO RENTALS
3	Jamaal Charles, KC RB
22	LeGarrette Blount, TB RB
27	Shonn Greene, NYJ RB
46	Wes Welker, NE WR
51	Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB
70	Owen Daniels, Hou TE
75	Chad Ochocinco, NE WR
94	Johnny Knox, Chi WR
99	Malcom Floyd, SD WR
118	Lee Evans, Bal WR
123	Patriots D/ST D/ST
142	Darren Sproles, NO RB
147	Rob Gronkowski, NE TE
166	Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl RB
171	Steve Smith, Phi WR
190	Alex Henery, Phi K
195	Isaac Redman, Pit RB

I had Jamaal Charles on literally every one of my fantasy teams last year. Obviously, the bandwagon's a little crowded this year because you need a top 4 pick to get him. I'm hoping he has one more ridiculous year left in him. I've got Patriots at WR1, WR2, Defense and TE2. Ugh. And don't discount that TE2 slot, because Gronk finished top 10 last year. The cupboard was bare after round 7, as you can see from the scraps I ended up with. There is an outside chance, that I might get some late season production out of Steve Smith. There is a greater chance that it'll all be over by then anyway.

Now that I've been properly humbled, hopefully I'll do a lot better tomorrow night at the NHNP draft.

The Draft Madness Begins! [Updated Sept 7]

2011-08-31T19:26:00.004-04:00

Well, I hope you're all comfortable with Arian "I hate you fantasy people" Foster and his hammy that's fine-but-the-public-MRI-says-it's-not! But I'll be passing on him tonight (I drew the 3rd pick) and any other night where I get an early pick. I also hope you're happy with MJD "don't worry about that bone-on-bone action in my knee" at some point in rounds 1 or 2. I'll also be passing on him too. I have a gnawing feeling that there are more questions in this year's draft than normal and YES I blame the lockout.

But good luck in your drafts!

Aug 31 - Razzball [0-1]
~~Sep 1 - No Helmets No Pads~~ [Rescheduled due to technical difficulties.]
~~Sep 4 - No Rulez~~ [Rescheduled due ...ditto]
Sep 5 - Back Alley Knife Fight [0-2] um....
~~Sep 6 - Country's Clan~~ [Rescheduled due to..hey that sounds familiar!]
Sep 6 - Fantasy Football Librarian [0-3] uh oh.....
Sep 6 - No Helmets No Pads [0-4] crap!
Sep 9 - No Rulez

As you can see, my drafts have gone from a leisurely week-long affair to Super Tuesday!

Sep 4 -- Wow! The No Rulez draft was axed today. This is the second draft to get postponed. I hope it's not some kind of sign. On to the next one.
Sep 7 -- So half my drafts were postponed and half took place on time....I bombed all of them! I really don't like the way my fantasy season is starting. After 4 drafts, my best team so far is probably the one in Razzball, and I'm not sure it will make the playoffs. The hated Tony Romo is my QB in two of the leagues, and I can not manage to get a decent set of RBs to save my life! My last hope is in No Rulez, and I won't be home with my reliable connection and cheat sheets when it takes place.

Cue scary movie music.........

There IS a God!!!!!!!!

2011-08-01T00:22:00.000-04:00

The Eagles actually made a number of smart and eagerly anticipated moves this off-season that have every chance of pushing them over the top to contend for a Superbowl this year.

I will freely admit to being pleasantly SHOCKED when they nabbed that guy from Oakland. I was beyond shocked; I was happy! And then, and then, when they got that other guy from Green Bay....OMG!!!! My head was going to explode! I swear, if they had gotten a top-notch O-lineman to go with those moves, I would have had a very public, um......incident.

But hey, it's July....not Christmas!

But there's more! If I don't miss my guess, you may see one more Pro Bowl level talent heading to Philadelphia in search of a ring. Stay tuned!!

Oh man! This is gonna be good!

My First Annual Fantasy Football Rankings

2011-07-24T15:05:00.006-04:00

Over a month ago I promised rankings soon, so here they are. We wouldn't want anyone wondering about my definition of the word 'soon', now would we?

I know what you're thinking. With the lockout madness casting a pall over football, what good are fantasy football rankings? Well, as long as you have drafts, you need rankings. And guess what? Thousands of fantasy football fans out there did not or could not wait for the lockout madness to be resolved. We've been drafting left, right, and center.

I've never published my own rankings before, so I thought I'd add a twist, you know, to distinguish my rankings from the millions of others out there. My twist is simple: these are aggressive rankings. To coin a baseball term, these are the rankings you would would use if you were out to hit a home run at all costs. All costs, of course, being the risk that you'll end up last or something. These rankings assume things like Jahvid Best is 100% recovered from his injury last fall, Chris Johnson returns to CJ2K form, and Run DMC was not just a one-year wonder. As far as I'm concerned, these will work equally well in the standard formats of both ESPN and Yahoo. Now I know you would have preferred a nice even number like 50 or 100 for the rankings, but it turns out that what I consider meaningful distinctions begin to disappear around the eighth round of a 10 team draft. Without further ado......

2011 Fantasy Football Home-Run Rankings (Adjusted 8/3)

1. Michael Vick
2. Arian Foster
3. Chris Johnson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Darren McFadden
6. Adrian Peterson
7. Ray Rice
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Maurice Jones-Drew
11. Matt Forte
12. Michael Turner
13. Aaron Rodgers
14. Tom Brady
15. Philip Rivers
16. Drew Brees
17. Peyton Manning
18. Andre Johnson
19. Calvin Johnson
20. Hakeem Nicks
21. Greg Jennings
22. Roddy White
23. Mike Wallace
24. Jahvid Best
25. Miles Austin
26. Vincent Jackson
27. Dwayne Bowe
28. Antonio Gates
29. Dallas Clark
30. Mike Williams
31. Wes Welker
32. Jason Witten
33. Larry Fitzgerald
34. Ryan Mathews
35. Shonn Greene
36. LeGarrette Blount
37.
38. Ahmad Bradshaw
39. Frank Gore
40. Peyton Hillis
41. Steven Jackson
42. Reggie Wayne
43. Dez Bryant
44. Marques Colston
45. Jeremy Maclin
46. DeSean Jackson
47. Brandon MarshallTony Romo
48. Stevie Johnson
49. DeAngelo Williams
50. Jonathan Stewart
51. Ryan Grant
52. Austin Collie
53. Mark Ingram
54. Mario Manningham
55. Matt Schaub
56. Knowshon Moreno
57. Sidney Rice
58. Owen Daniels
59. Kenny Britt
60. Santonio Holmes
61. Jermichael Finley
62. Ben Roethlisberger
63. Brandon Lloyd
64. Matthew Stafford
65. Fred Jackson
66. Percy Harvin
67. Jimmy Graham
68. Marshawn Lynch
69. Vernon Davis
70. Eli Manning
71. Josh Freeman
72. Anquan Boldin
73. Johnny Knox
74. Philadelphia Eagles
75. Green Bay
76. Pittsburgh
77. New York Jets
78. Chicago
79. Matt Ryan
80. Cedric Benson
81. Michael Crabtree

Now, in an amazing feat of mind-reading, I'm going to anticipate your comments and questions....and yes, for a fee, I can take a look at your portfolio too.

Are the rankings RB-heavy? - No. Well they are, but the prominence of RBs in the upper echelon is warranted by years of data showing that at their best, RBs will provided a competitive advantage in fantasy football compared to all other positions. The sole exception to this principle in these rankings is Michael Vick. To wit...

Do you really have Michael Vick #1 overall?! - Yes. Yes I do. On a per game basis, Vick was the highest scoring player in all of fantasy last year. In addition, his point differential against other QBs was greater than that of even Foster over other RBs. Andy Reid has had all off-season to tinker with the schemes and optimize them for Vick's talents and there are still all those toys out there; McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, and now a healthy Celek. Then there's my personal experience last year: I think all of the teams where I picked up Vick made the playoffs. You need to think about that in the context of just how many teams a fantasy football addict might have going at any given time. So yeah, I'm a believer.

Aren't those QBs higher than normal for you? - Yes, the QBs have lept up my draft boards in 2011. I have watched in horror, as the stud RBs have all but disappeared in the NFL. When I look at the latest 3 years worth of data, I have no choice but to adjust my ranking and drafting systems to reflect what the numbers (and my gut) have been telling me: the top QBs are now as important as the top RBs or WRs. Specifically, in the absence of the the reliable stud running backs, it is vital that you try to secure a top 6 QB in your drafts. This importance increases with the size of the league. In 12 team leagues it is my advice that every single one of the 7-12 slots nab any top 6 QB left on the board at your first pick....unless the 1-6 teams actually started off grabbing QBs, which should leave some elite RBs available for you. I know what you're thinking; in 10 team leagues why bother grabbing #6 if 1-5 are off the board already? The answer is simple; the distribution of talent in the NFL has nothing to do with the arbitrary size of fantasy football leagues. In other words, the top 6 are in a class by themselves in terms of the high level of their expected production, as well as the consistency and predictability we associate with that production. So the number 6 QB could be Brady or Rivers, which, most of us realize, could easily finish #1. Brady's done it, and Rivers led the league in yards in a bad year for his receiving corps. There is a significant drop-off after those 6.

Isn't Romo a little low here? Are you Cowboy hating? No. Romo is capable of a stellar year. The problem is that under the assumptions of these rankings, so are a number of other QB, none of whom have to face the Eagles twice this year.

Tease

2011-06-14T07:44:00.001-04:00

I know there's a lockout on, and no free agency moves have been made. I know we have no idea how many Twinkies Dwayne Bowe or Donovan McNabb have been scarfing down (although believe me, the latter is setting records), or just how strong Crabtree must has gotten to be able to throw a whole QB under a bus that way. But I will be posting my all-time first pre-season rankings soon, despite the obvious harm I may suffer in the drafts I'll participate in.

Hopefully, that'll tide you over until someone publishes one of those nice glossy magazines.

ABL Country Rejoices: God Really is Great!!!!!

2011-06-13T07:20:00.003-04:00

No, this hasn't turned into an evangelical web site (suppresses chuckle). I am absolutely ecstatic that the Mavericks have won the NBA title. As a proud American, it is a great comfort to see the good guys actually win one, and believe me, the Mavericks were definitely wearing the white hats in this one. Jason and Dirk have played a LOT of years as outstanding players and hard workers, and finally, in the twilight of their careers, get to enjoy ONE title. I love that hard work and good sportsmanship won and spoiled brat syndrome, inexcusable behavior, and adultery lost. (Not that pro athletes are really known to be choir boys, but seriously; those guys in Miami truly are jerks.)

And while it's unfortunate that the media will be emphasizing the angle that Miami lost, rather than giving credit to the Mavericks for winning, all those guys still get a ring. I love it that the guy who stayed put in his city with his team won the title. LOVE IT!!!!!!!! Congratulations also to Mark Cuban, one of the most colorful but also best owners in pro sports for making all the moves necessary to build that team and managing to keep his mouth shut and let the series be about his players. We could use a LOT more owners like Mark (NFL:DC/Dallas)

I think I'm buying donuts for everyone today!

Oh, and now back to my "little life and problems."*

Now back to your regularly scheduled football and fantasy football related posts.
Good God the ego on that guy. I swear he is a walking PR disaster.

Early Rankings Early Drafts

2011-06-08T06:35:00.001-04:00

The early fantasy football player rankings are a thrill-seekers paradise! Ryan Grant has been dropped to like part-time platoon back status in the rankings. I've participated in several mocks, most of which were of somewhat questionable quality, and only one early league draft. Here's what I noticed:

1) Wide receiver seems perilously shallow. Seriously, after like the top 12 guys, who disappeared in a flash, I found myself desperately wishing I had taken wideouts in rounds 2, 3, and 4! It might just be me, but I suspect I'll be forced to bump WR up on my draft boards because of the paucity of reliable targets out there. And my next bullet didn't help this feeling at all, to wit....

2) The uncertainty surrounding free-agency this year seems to have affected RBs the most: there were plenty of potential top 20 and even possible top 10 caliber backs available deep into the middle rounds. Guys like Ryan Mathews, who should not be ranked below RB20, were available in round 7 or later?! Shonn Greene was still on the shelf at these rounds as well. Jonathan Stewart, his pal DeAngelo, and even Forte were going way too late (round 5).

3) Michael Vick is not going as high as many of us thought he would. He seems to be going around QB5, which is nice for him, but clearly does not reflect a belief that he will return to that jaw-dropping level of performance we saw last year.

4) The quarterback position is not being given its proper due. Anyone who knows me or has played in a league with me knows how much I favor the RB position but the numbers just don't lie: over the last 3 years, committee backfields, increasing emphasis on passing, and injuries have led to an almost precipitous drop in the early round values of RBs in fantasy drafts, mostly to the benefit of QBs. QBs provide not only the highest points per game, but also the greatest consistency (at the elite level) over all other fantasy football positions. In my only "real" draft so far, Tom Brady didn't get nabbed until the 4th round.

That is much too late. Seriously.

Some people shy away from early drafts because of fears of injury, but also because of all the uncertainty surrounding free agency and what the depth charts will look like. Others, like myself, will jump right in there on the basis of the idea that my guesses are better than your guesses about what will happen to the question marks. For example in my first real draft I ended up grabbing Mathews and Stewart (already had Turner and Shady) because I felt that they were significantly more valuable than the available WRs on the board. (my personal ranking has Mathews no lower than RB12) By the time the season starts, if I really feel pressed at WR, I should be able to trade these guys for much better WRs than were available at the point in the draft. What do you think?

LePunk Makes ABL Country Ecstatic!

2011-06-08T06:07:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the non-football-related tangent, but last night LePunk showed his true colors in ONCE AGAIN failing to perform in the 4th quarter. Look, the evidence is overwhelming: is he talented yes, yes he is talented and even I have admitted as much in a prior post. The question is, is he great? Is he even likable?

No and hell no!

Elite players, great players deliver in clutch situations. As a matter of fact performing in the clutch is an integral characteristic of great players in any sport. But when the big moment comes, year after year after year, LePunk shrivels like Costanza in a cold pool.

Unfortunately Miami may still have too much talent for Dallas, but right now it's 2-2, and the Mavericks have a fighting chance, so for the next several days I'm going to be one of their BIGGEST fans!

Last night was a good night!

Anyone But LePunk

Seriously?

2011-06-02T21:56:00.000-04:00

Is it my imagination, or is fantasy football open for business on Yahoo? I'm not complaining, I mean I'm pretty sure I'm their #1 customer, but, um, well there's this lockout thing, and there's been no free agency, and our favorite little $7 fantasy rags have apprently NOT been published.

What's a fantasy nut to do?

Eagles Draft Grade: D

2011-05-04T07:00:00.001-04:00

And they started off so well. I actually lost a money bet on the Eagles' first pick because I was convinced that they would, once again, not do the right thing. Longer term I was right, but boy did they tease us with that pick of a decent offensive lineman in round 1. That pick is the only thing keeping them from an outright failing grade this year. And yes, that was it for the draft. You might as well have turned off your TV for the spring.

Picks 2 and 3 might even be starters pretty quickly. Don't get me wrong, the defense really did need help, but I'll say it slowly for the um, cognitively challenged among us: 1) Vick's protection went from bad to worse as the season progressed. 2) Without Vick there is no playoff, no Superbowl, heck, without Vick there isn't even a sense of excitement to watch Eagles games. Now, put those two together.

And don't even get me started on taking a kicker in the 4th round.

You know who had the right idea; the Colts. They drafted OL with the first 2 picks. At least they know where their bread is buttered.

Draft picks: G Danny Watkins (first round), S Jaiquawn Jarrett (second round), CB Curtis Marsh (third round), LB Casey Matthews (fourth round), K Alex Henery (fourth round), RB Dion Lewis (fifth round), OL Julian Vandervelde (fifth round), C Jason Kelce (sixth round), LB Brian Rolle (sixth round), LB Greg Lloyd (seventh round), FB Stanley Havili (seventh round).

Guess who won't be on any of my 72 fantasy teams this year?

2011-05-04T06:48:00.000-04:00

Mendenhall.

Nuff said.

Eagles 2011: Rob the Raiders!!!!!

2011-01-17T18:30:00.001-05:00

Last year I wrote a post on what the Eagles should do during the off-season. As usual, they didn't listen to me. Now with all the hype surrounding Michael Vick and the fact that many of the faithful were just thankful he was better than the disastrous first half of game 1 with Kolb would have indicated, people may be inclined to believe that all we need are a few tweaks.

WRONG!

Let me go back to my central thesis going into the 2010 season:

Until the Eagles RADICALLY improve the offensive line, they are going NOWHERE.

Michael Vick's unique (and time-limited) athleticism has masked the dreadful state of the Eagles' offensive line. Just imagine what would have happened to Kolb behind that line. Look, just because Vick had it in him to survive and even occasionally thrive in 2010 doesn't mean it's a recipe for success. Already, sportscasters are pointing out that teams seem to have "figured him out" in the second half of the season, and witness the drastically increased number of interceptions and sacks in the last 8 games, and that shiver going down your spine should turn ice cold: Into a bone-chilling shiver. Vick was literally beat-up in the Packers game, and it's a model all of the 2011 opponents are going to follow. This just can't continue.

Second, the Eagles still need a true north-south runner, or at the very least, someone comfortable between the tackles. That means Michael Bush or Deangelo Williams. Please!!!! Again, Michael Vick's heroic antics drastically improved conditions for LeSean McCoy, who's greatest value was still as a receiver. But it bears repeating: you will not see this performance again in 2011. At best McCoy is Westbrook 2.0, but that presumes a QB who is upright to deliver the ball. During the loss to the packers the pernicious affects of that porous line and inability to run were in full evidence. If you cannot establish a real running game, defenses can go one-dimensional and shut you down. You're basically making their jobs easier. So once again I provide my prescription:

Free Agents:

1. Nnamdi Asomugha -- I know, I haven't said anything about him until now. Look, just take a peek at the Jets to see what a guy like this can do for your defense overall, but especially for your options in defensive play-calling. There is no way I can place an RB or OL this high because frankly, Nnamdi is SO good at his position that you HAVE to go for him before ANYTHING else. Besides, we can stock up on linemen in the draft.

2. Michael Bush -- Another Raider, another future pro-bowler. If the Eagles do nothing but grab these two guys, they're a lock to repeat as division champions. Now if they also grab 2 O-linemen in the first 3 rounds, look out! They'll be playing in February baby!

2) Any really good, HEALTHY offensive lineman. But again, only really good ones and they definitely have to be healthy. Not like the Redkins and the guy they grabbed from the Saints. What a fiasco. If no one fits both these criteria, the Eagles should be prepared to use 3 of the top 4 picks on O-linemen.

3) DeAngelo Williams -- But only if Bush is truly beyond reach.

Draft Plan. This draft plan assumes the Eagles were smart enough to grab Nnamdi and Bush. Otherwise, please make me offers for my season tickets.

Round 1. Offensive Lineman
Round 2. Offensive Lineman
Round 3. Offensive Lineman
Round 4. DB (More help for Nnamdi -- Jets model)
Round 5. Defensive Lineman
Round 6. Linebacker
Round 7. DE

Back Alley Knife Fight: The 2010 Awards

2011-01-15T17:23:00.046-05:00

Back Alley Knife Fight

League Champion: Raider Maniacs (Wielder of the Rusty Dagger)
Second Place: Angry Minnesotans
Third Place: (King) Baby Duck
Fourth Place: Hey Beerman!!!
League High Scorer: Angry Minnesotans
The Rodney King Beatdown Award: (King) Baby Duck (Most blowouts)

This year the champion had a pretty good lead going into week 17, so there wasn't a lot of drama surrounding the final outcome. For 2nd through 4th however, it did come down to Week 17. The bad news is that for the second year in a row, inactive owners marred the competition. Assuming we have fantasy football next year, this league may have to shrink down to 8 teams in the hopes of eliminating the abandoned teams.

Girlz and Bonecrushers were fallen angels this year, but Hey Beerman!!! had a strong year, barely missing out on a third place finish. (King) Baby Duck was a welcome addition. Active during the season, he was also a strong contender and finished the year with a whopping 7-2 second-half record.

Enjoy the NFL playoffs and hope to see you in the 2011 season!

2010 Almanac: Part Deux

2011-01-10T21:34:00.002-05:00

Forgot a couple of things yesterday.

Fantasy MVP: Michael Vick
Runners Up:
2. Arian Foster
3. Peyton Manning
4. Aaron Rodgers

Fantasy Goat: Randy Moss
Runners Up: (line forms here)
2. Shonn Greene
3. Ryan Mathews
4. DeAngelo Williams
5. Brandon Marshall
6. Steve Smith (take your pick)
7. Beanie Wells

Some of you might include Ryan Grant, but the poor guy got hurt in the first game of the season so following my own tradition, I don't blame a guy if he is unexpectedly hurt and can't play. The top 4 guys on the goat list were concensus first round picks who killed you if you picked them (which is why I said I was lucky in my earlier post). If you had 2 of these guys and survived, you deserve a medal. DeAngelo is a free agent according to my info, so believe me, next year's fantasy draft (if we have one) should very interesting when it come to Williams and Stewart. Of this year's goats, only Marshall and Mathews actually showed signs of life by season's end, so they may be bargains in next year's draft.

Waiver Wire Wonder

Well this was a LOT tougher than you might think. Honestly, you could have fielded an all-star team from the waiver wire this year, a development I do NOT applaud: Michael Vick (QB1), Brandon Lloyd (WR2), Stevie Johnson (WR10), Peyton Hillis (RB4), Mercedes Lewis (TE4), etc., etc. None of these guys was drafted in NHNP. For the sake of not turning this into the Michael Vick show, let's award this one to Peyton Hillis.

2011 A Sneak Peek Into The Season That Might Never Come

Ranking for Running Backs in '11:

1. Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
2. Chris Johnson (Titans)
3. Ray Rice (Ravens)
4. Maurice Jones Drew (Jaguars)
5. Arian Foster (Texans )
6. Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)
7. Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers)
8. Michael Turner (Falcons)
9. Darren McFadden (Raiders)
10. Frank Gore (49ers)
11. Matt Forte (Bears)
12. Stephen Jackson (Rams)
13. LeSean McCoy (Eagles)
14. Peyton Hillis (Browns)
15. Ryan Mathews (Chargers)
16. Jahvid Best (Lions)
17. Ryan Grant (Packers)
18. Jonathan Stewart (Panthers)
19. LeGarrette Blount (Bucs)
20. Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants)

Next year may really be the first year that I wait on RBs, but only because the position looks to be deep for the first time in 4 or 5 years. Out side of the top 10, I'm having trouble being convinced about any one of these guys compared to the other.

Top Wide Receivers in '11

1. Roddy White (Falcons)
2. Andre Johnson (Texans)
3. Greg Jennings (Packers)
4. Calvin Johnson (Lions)
5. Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs)
6. DeSean Jackson (Eagles)
7. Miles Austin (Cowboys)
8. Hakeem Nicks (Giants)
9. Reggie Wayne (Colts)
10. Wes Welker (Patriots)
11. Mike Wallace (Steelers)
12. Brandon Marshall (Dolphins)
13. Brandon Lloyd (Broncos)
14. Vincent Jackson (Chargers)
15. Anquan Boldin (Ravens)
16. Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals)
17. Marquis Colston (Saints)
18. Jeremy Maclin (Eagles)
19. Santonio Holmes (Jets)
20. Steve Johnson (Bills)

Obviously, if the Titans get a real QB, Randy Moss would be an automatic top 20 WR.

Top Quarterbacks in '11:

1. Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
2. Peyton Manning (Colts)
3. Tom Brady (Patriots)
4. Drew Brees (Saints)
5. Philip Rivers (Chargers)
6. Tony Romo (Cowboys)
7. Matt Schaub (Texans) (Won't have 2 bad years in a row)
8. Michael Vick (Eagles)
9. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
10. Eli Manning (Giants)

I have to note here, that Vick is probably under-ranked. When I checked the stats to see how he did in the second half of the season (you know, when everybody "figured him out"), it turned out that his consistency and scoring were even BETTER than in the first half of the season. I'm looking for people to remember the Eagles poor overall performance and allow Vick to drop to bargain status where I can snatch him up for a song.

Top Tight Ends in '11:
1. Antonio Gates (Chargers)
2. Dallas Clark (Colts)
3. Jermichael Finley (Packers)
4. Jason Witten (Cowboys)
5. Marcedes Lewis (Jaguars)
6. Vernon Davis (49ers)
7. Tony Gonzalez (Falcons)
8. Kellen Winslow (Bucs)
9. Chris Cooley (Redskins)
10. Aaron Hernandez (Patriots)

See you in the summer!

NHNP: 2010 Fantasy Football Almanac

2011-01-09T21:42:00.004-05:00

The 2010 season is over and once again, some of us are left licking our wounds and wondering if the game will ever make as much sense as it used to. This season was littered with injuries, surprises and inexplicable breakdowns and the only GMs that survived it either had the luck of the Irish or uncanny skill.

I was lucky.

Let's dive into it! The All-NHNP Team for 2010 is:

QB: Michael Vick
WR1: Brandon Lloyd
WR2: Roddy White
RB1: Arian Foster
RB2: Jamaal Charles
TE: Jason Witten
W/T: Greg Jennings
W/R: Peyton Hillis
K: Sebastian Janikowski
DEF: Pittsburgh Steelers

QB -- The 2010 season confirmed a suspicion that had been gnawing at my gut: QB is the most consistent position in fantasy. What sticks out at you when you look at this list?

Total Points

Vick
Rodgers
Brady
Manning
Rivers
Brees
Schaub
Freeman
Ryan
Manning II

That's right, the first thing you notice is that it's basically the usual suspects: QBs 2-7 could have been cut from the pre-season rankings and pasted here. QB is an island of predictability in a hobby that is becoming maddeningly random. Now although he only played in 12 games this year, Michael Vick produced elite numbers in something like 75% of the games he played in. He was on an astounding number of fantasy teams that made the playoffs. He singlehandedly turned lost seasons into championships. Will he do it again next year? No. But this isn't next year. It's this year. And this year he is the runaway MVP. Peyton Manning comes in 2nd this year followed closely by Aaron Rodgers. Both of these QBs had the fewest bad games after Vick and played in all 16 and 15 games respectively. You Brady fans are out of luck because despite his higher point total, Tom would have hurt you in more weeks than either Aaron or Peyton.

Final Ranking

Vick
Manning
Rodgers

WR / W/T -- Roddy White gave you the most points this year so he makes my all-star team but Brandon Lloyd wins best WR because he gave you more stellar games and fewer bad ones than Roddy over the season. For a guy who has never really had a good season and was catching balls from Kyle Orton, all I can say is kudos! And please don't tell me you drafted Lloyd in the second round. You know you didn't. Now, as for the third WR...the dreaded W/T slot, total score says Bowe over Jennings but.....

Jennings played in all 16 games to Bowe's 15 and had significantly fewer bad games during the season. You know the ones. Those weeks when you're looking at the score and you do that thing where you think or hope maybe the game isn't over and that's why you're staring at a single digit number. Dwayne was a huge surprise this year, particularly since he didn't explode until week 6 or something. Next year he won't be such a bargain.

RB / W/R -- The starting RBs are slam dunks. Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles both had remarkable seasons and ended the year as the top 2 scorers at the position. I had Charles on all of my fantasy teams this year, and since everyone let me have him, I'll take a bow. After those two however, there was a huge scrum in NHNP. Five RBs were essentially tied for third scroing within 8 or so points of each other: Peterson, Johnson, Hillis, McCoy, and McFadden. Frankly when he played, Darren McFadden was either #2 or #3 in the league but he only managed 13 games, so he dropped in my rankings. But again, he won't come cheap next year. AP and McCoy played only 15 games, and as you know in fantasy; every game counts. That leaves us with Hillis and CJ. Hillis was more consistent over the season so he wins. Now I'm only going to say this once: it is remarkable that CJ finished as a top 5 RB despite Vince Young's bafoonish behavior. So while my 2011 rankings have AP #1 (he has finished top 3 EVERY year of his career so far), I will not have CJ too far behind. He's a definite first-rounder in 2011, and a threat to repeat his 2009 numbers now that Jeff is firmly in control of the Titans. For those of you wondering why it wasn't a WR at the W/R slot: no remaining WRs scored more points more consistently than did the fab 5 RBs we just reviewed. Which brings us to:

TE -- 2010 was a disaster for the TE position. The 2 brightest stars this season didn't get to play the whole season due to injuries. Antonio Gates and Jermichael Finley were the top 2 TEs on a per game basis and will go very early in 2011 drafts, and rightfully so. But Jason Witten played all 16 games, and ended the year as the top scorer at the position.

K -- Every FF player worth his salt knows that this changes every year. This year's winner is Sebastian Janikowski . Who plays on a team with an interesting distinction. Apparently, the Oakland Raiders swept their division and did not make the playoffs. I would appreciate it if someone would tell me how often that has happened.

DEF -- Statistically about the same as kickers, defenses are drafted differently because FF players have favorite teams and will often take that defense for that reason alone. While the Steelers scored the most points this year, the defense you would have wanted to have down the stretch is the New England Patriots, who outscored every other defense by an embarrassing margin over the last 4 games, and I think, over the last 8.

Taking another look at the all-star team though, the fluctuation in performance from year to year really sinks in. In the NHNP league, I'm considering dropping one of the flex slots, which will make the QB score a higher percentage of the overall score. I am considering this because QB production is the most predictable variable in FF, and I'd rather reward decisions based on that than those based on sheer luck.

On a parting note, I'd like for the NFL to come to a deal rather quickly because if there's no football in 2011, there's no fantasy football either.

...and you don't want to see what happens then!

NHNP: 2010 League Awards

2011-01-09T17:07:00.009-05:00

League Awards for 2010

No Helmets No Pads
League Champion: Minnesota Americans
Silver: No Homers
Bronze: Hey Beerman!!!

Regular Season Champion: Greenskins*
Second Place: Hey Beerman!!!
Third Place: Minnesota Americans
Fourth Place: No Homers

League High Scorer: No Homers (2nd consecutive scoring title)
Golden Doughnut: No Homers (Most high scores) (2nd consecutive award)
Most Improved: Greenskins (6th to 1st)
The Rodney King Beatdown Award: daddypoopypants (Most blowouts)
The Mummy's Hand: No winner in 2010*
Toughest Schedule: Girlz Rule
League MVP: Co-MVPs daddypoopypants and Greenskins

NHNP was once again an extremely competitive, dangerous league. This year we went back to the traditional league format after a 1 year experiment with the divisional format. As I wrote last year, while the divisional format was fun, it is prone to unpredictably lopsided distributions of power. It was a great year with most of the GMs being returning GMs, and a very active league until the bitter end. The watchword for 2010 was PARITY....although my second choice would have been INJURIES. Heading into Week 13 every team in the league had a shot at the playoffs, something that I don't think happens every year (actually, I'm sure it doesn't). While I personally prefer going 14-0 whenever possible, I can't deny the excitement and sense of urgency that comes from knowing that every game is going to count, literally until the very end. So maybe there is something to be said for parity after all.

This is the year that saw daddypoopypants once again flirt with playoff contention, only to run into a brick wall at season's end. Hey Beerman!!! put in another solid performance with his second consecutive playoff appearance. The only good news for the rest of us now is that Beerman won't be sneaking up on anyone in next year's draft. Greenskins started the year 5-0?! Yep, 5-0. He also squeaked through with the top regular season finish. And then there's No Homers. Geez Louise but this guy won't quit! It's Week 12, this guy's 5-7, basically in the cellar, and somehow, on championship weekend...there he is! This was No Homers' third trophy in 3 years (he seems allergic to bronze), and his third consecutive appearance in the title game. Girlz and cantwinagame probably both caught the bug I had last year, as did benchwarmer who I expected to repeat in the playoffs. Big Country made a pretty big splash in his first year in the league starting off 6-2...and if you had told me then that he wouldn't make the playoffs, I would have lost a LOT of money! And Devil Dogs would have made the playoffs, were it not for an improbable 4 game losing streak at the end of the season. We'll have to see who bounces back in 2011.

There was no Mummy's Hand Award in 2010 because everyone's records were so close together that it was impossible to decide whether an upset had actually taken place. Now since I insist on some kind of Good Sportsmanship award, I replaced the Mummy's Hand this year with League MVP: a purely subjective award for the GM who was most active and contributed to a better fantasy football experience overall. This year's winners tied for the most posts (and displayed a good sense of humor), did lots of roster changes, and used lots of their FAAB.

I'd like to thank everyone again for a great year. Next year I hope to do more in-season posts like I have in years past. Also, I'm considering doing away with the W/T slot (which would make the QB more important). Let me know what you think. I'm going to watch the Eagles now, but later tonight, I'll enter the 2010 Almanac-type material that I usually include in the award post. You want a sneak peek? Okay. My 2010 Fantasy Football MVP is:

Michael Vick!

*This year 3 teams finished 9-5: Greenskins, Hey Beerman!!! and Minnesota Americans. The final standings weren't determined until after the last game was played in week 14!

Warning: RANT

2010-12-20T10:57:00.000-05:00

Being a commissioner is a thankless job. Seriously. You do everything you can to accommodate people's schedule, likes, and dislikes, and at the end of the day they still hang you in effigy! I've noticed this has had an interesting effect on a number of people. Of the many leagues I participate in, almost all the commissioners become less active over time, some dramatically so.

And I know exactly how they feel.

Take the issue of abandoned teams. Some commissioners just ignore them and everyone knows they get a bye week when they play such a team. Sounds fair right? Gee, I don't know. I mean if you faced-off against this team in Week 3 when they were still paying attention and they beat you, how do you feel about the team who's tied with you for 4th place getting a bye in Week 13 right before the playoffs? Not so fair now huh? But let's say you want to be a good commissioner and set good lineups for everyone, do you even have the time? Do you know how time-consuming it is to set starting line-ups for inactive teams? Oh, and BTW, do you also do waiver wire pick-ups for them? Hmmm? Because on top of the investment in time, there's the headache of having someone else in your league accuse you of making ONE team stronger because that team is playing your rival (?!), or.........of picking up players who could have helped out other teams that are competing against you. It is a never-ending cycle of complaints, invectives, and imagined slights and conspiracies.

The obvious solution is for all the teams to be active throughout the entire year. But that is the Holy Grail of FF Commissioners, and about as common as a virgin bride. Oh I know what you're thinking, this doesn't happen in pay leagues. Wrong!
Talk to commissioners of pay leagues and they'll tell you it happens all the time. And in pay leagues it can also be worse because the guy who paid his money feels entitled to do whatever he wants with his team, even if it means leaving injured players in his line-up.

Now let's say you decide that you won't tolerate inactive teams. Good for you! Now how do you decide which line-ups to tinker with and which to leave alone, and when? The answer's not as obvious as it might seem. Let's say a manager's been inactive for 2 weeks. Is that enough time for you to change their line-up? 3 weeks? 4? Better yet, let's say a manager's been inactive for 4 weeks but went 3-1 in that stretch. Now do you change the line-up?

Again, the guy who just joined a league gets to enjoy his hobby and take care of just his team, the commissioner on the other hand, has to worry about all this stuff!

Of all the leagues I participate in, I think only one truly does not have this problem. And that is the result of constantly culling the bad owners from the league and working hard to try to keep the good ones coming back year in and year out. Okay, maybe two leagues, but the second one also has a lot of repeat/veteran managers. I just hope I hang in there long enough for the third league to come around.

Uh oh....

2010-12-18T20:52:00.005-05:00

It just occurred to me that No Homers is threatening to win the NHNP playoff title for the 3rd straight year. If this should happen, then following the precedent of the World Cup, the trophy would have to be remanded into his custody for all eternity!! But if Emperor Palpatine wins, I'll have to hear about all year!

Holy dilemmas Batman!!!!!

P.S. - I apologize if the font looks too small, but I'm too technologically illiterate to figure out how to change it for all the posts. From the main page however, you can click on the title of the post you're most interested in, and it will increase the size of the text for that post.

NHNP: Early Kudos

2010-12-18T19:40:00.006-05:00

The 2010 regular season is winding to a close. I was overwhelmed this year, so I didn't post, well.......... at all! Expect a super-spectacular double posting on January 9 covering awards for the No Helmets No Pads league, as well as the Back Alley Knife Fight!

Now at the risk of stealing material from the my future (January 9) post....let me take this opportunity to congratulate Emperor Palpatine a.k.a. Greenskins for a first place regular season finish in the league. He usually does not have the best luck in fantasy football, but was in it from the very beginning this year when he started 6-0?!

Every year I like to acknowledge those who finished at the top of the standings in part because playoffs in fantasy football are much more susceptible to luck than success over a 14 or 17 game season. Hey Beerman!!! put the finishing touches on another strong season with his second second place finish in a row. Those of you who wrote him off last year because he was out getting drunk and missed the draft paid dearly for it. And finally, No Homers dug, clawed and crawled his way into the playoffs this year, making it 3 years in a row now with a top 4 finish. It wasn't pretty, but he got the job done in the end.

Honorable mentions for both daddypoppypants and big country for fielding very strong teams. Both of these teams missed the playoffs by the slightest of margins. They both had top 5 scoring teams (unless I read that incorrectly) and they both had tougher schedules than anyone who finished ahead of them.*

Okay, time for cake. See you in January!

*Fortunately, my awards take this into account.

Next Year.....

2010-12-15T21:37:00.003-05:00

Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.
Next year, I will take a franchise QB with my first pick.

By The Numbers: Back Alley Knife Fight

2010-09-08T22:04:00.003-04:00

One of my favorite parts of fantasy magazines was always the commentary/analysis that accompanied the expert mock drafts. I've tried to do something similar the last couple of years, but sometimes I get busy. This year, I wanted to add a little change of pace and try another method of crystal-balling the upcoming season based on draft results. So for the Back Alley Knife Fight, I assigned each drafted player their ADP based on Fantasy Football Calculator's latest available number prior to the draft as a means of quantifying my assessment of how well everybody did. The good news is that my general observations were borne out by the numbers. The bad news is; I don't have the best team! Worse, there's lots of competition in this league!

So the first thing I did was calculate a Roster score by adding up the average draft position of all the players drafted by team. This gives me an overall sense of the strength of the entire team. Remember, you want a low number for a score. Chris Johnson, for example has an ADP of only 1.4, while most defenses are above 100.

	Roster
Angry Minnes...	1238
strikers	1239
(King) Baby ...	1244
Couch Potatoes2	1256.2
Bone Crushers	1270.5
Girlz Rule	1314.3
Hey Beerman!!!	1333.6
bench warmer	1362.3
Raider Maniacs	1363.8
Sweet Home C...	1404.4

My eyeball look at the league during draft night had already told me that King Baby, Couch Potatoes and Bone Crushers would have good teams, so it was nice to see the numbers bearing this out. And as commissioner, I'm pretty much required to put in a good showing. What surprised me, was that Beerman!!!'s squad seemed to be in the bottom half, so I considered this measure a little crude. Helpful, but a little rough. My other observation is that the scores were fairly tightly grouped. The top 5 teams had scores that varied by less than 5%.

So I did a second calculation designed to basically drop out the kickers and defenses and give me a measure of the strength of the fantasy teams at the skill positions. This score tabulated the ADP of the first 8 (or essentially the starters) for each of the fantasy teams. The results were interesting:

Bone Crushers	1270.5	267.7
(King) Baby ...	1244	292.9
Angry Minnes...	1238	298.7
Couch Potatoes2	1256.2	309.7
Sweet Home C...	1404.4	317.5
Hey Beerman!!!	1333.6	326.9
Raider Maniacs	1363.8	328.9
strikers	1239	341.4
Girlz Rule	1314.3	357.4
bench warmer	1362.3	413.9

Those who were at the live draft will recall all the comments I made about King Baby's drafting. Well, numbers don't lie. King Baby's squad scores in the top 3 spots on both overall roster and starter scoring. But Bone Crushers also did very well with the best score for the starting lineup. I think he's still miffed about last year and plans on walking away with the trophy. He has a good start. I will say, however, that a second eyeball look at the teams leaves me a little puzzled given the strength of Beerman!!!'s starters in particular. It doesn't seem to be reflected in the calculations.

Based on these calculations, Couch Potatoes, King Baby, Angry Minnesotans, and Bone Crushers would be the favorites in this league. But remember, these numbers came out pretty close, so I would expect at least a couple of surprises before December.

5.7	Andre Johnson (Hou - WR)	(King) Baby ...
9	Randy Moss (NE - WR)	(King) Baby ...
25.5	Tom Brady (NE - QB)	(King) Baby ...
31.6	Pierre Thomas (NO - RB)	(King) Baby ...
50.2	Jonathan Stewart (Car - RB)	(King) Baby ...
53	Vernon Davis (SF - TE)	(King) Baby ...
56.4	Pierre Garcon (Ind - WR)	(King) Baby ...
61.5	Malcom Floyd (SD - WR)	(King) Baby ...
73.5	Mike Wallace (Pit - WR)	(King) Baby ...
100.5	Donald Brown (Ind - RB)	(King) Baby ...
105.3	Fred Jackson (Buf - RB)	(King) Baby ...
110.4	Donovan McNabb (Was - QB)	(King) Baby ...
113.1	Anthony Gonzalez (Ind - WR)	(King) Baby ...
135.4	Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)	(King) Baby ...	638.2	Bench
144.4	Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR)	(King) Baby ...	292.9	Top 8/Starters
168.5	David Akers (Phi - K)	(King) Baby ...	1244	Roster
1.4	Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)	Angry Minnes...
20.9	Greg Jennings (GB - WR)	Angry Minnes...
25.6	Jamaal Charles (KC - RB)	Angry Minnes...
39.3	Arian Foster (Hou - RB)	Angry Minnes...
42.6	Antonio Gates (SD - TE)	Angry Minnes...
43.4	Jermichael Finley (GB - TE)	Angry Minnes...
56.5	Mike Sims-Walker (Jac - WR)	Angry Minnes...
69	Justin Forsett (Sea - RB)	Angry Minnes...
79.4	Ricky Williams (Mia - RB)	Angry Minnes...
96.8	Eli Manning (NYG - QB)	Angry Minnes...
108.9	Julian Edelman (NE - WR)	Angry Minnes...
110.6	Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB)	Angry Minnes...
110.9	Bernard Berrian (Min - WR)	Angry Minnes...
122.4	Jacoby Jones (Hou - WR)	Angry Minnes...	629	Bench
152.1	James Davis (Cle - RB)	Angry Minnes...	298.7	Top 8/Starters
159.1	Chicago (Chi - DEF)	Angry Minnes...	1238.9	Roster
16.8	Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB)	bench warmer
23.7	Shonn Greene (NYJ - RB)	bench warmer
40.8	Dallas Clark (Ind - TE)	bench warmer
52.3	Knowshon Moreno (Den - RB)	bench warmer
67	Vincent Jackson (SD - WR)	bench warmer
68.1	Donald Driver (GB - WR)	bench warmer
69.1	Reggie Bush (NO - RB)	bench warmer
76.1	Jeremy Maclin (Phi - WR)	bench warmer
78.3	Brandon Jacobs (NYG - RB)	bench warmer
83.4	Brett Favre (Min - QB)	bench warmer
97.3	Braylon Edwards (NYJ - WR)	bench warmer
126.8	Baltimore (Bal - DEF)	bench warmer
127.8	Sidney Rice (Min - WR)	bench warmer
133.4	Alex Smith (SF - QB)	bench warmer	647	Bench
149.6	Greg Olsen (Chi - TE)	bench warmer	413.9	Top 8/Starters
152.7	Stephen Gostkowski (NE - K)	bench warmer	1363.2	Roster
4.4	Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac - RB)	Bone Crushers
7	Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB)	Bone Crushers
20	Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR)	Bone Crushers
30	Wes Welker (NE - WR)	Bone Crushers
31.3	Cedric Benson (Cin - RB)	Bone Crushers
41.9	Michael Crabtree (SF - WR)	Bone Crushers
53.1	Ronnie Brown (Mia - RB)	Bone Crushers
80	Owen Daniels (Hou - TE)	Bone Crushers
87.2	Clinton Portis (Was - RB)	Bone Crushers
96.7	Carson Palmer (Cin - QB)	Bone Crushers
103.6	Tim Hightower (Ari - RB)	Bone Crushers
107.2	Green Bay (GB - DEF)	Bone Crushers
112.5	Lee Evans (Buf - WR)	Bone Crushers
151	Jeremy Shockey (NO - TE)	Bone Crushers	658.2	Bench
164.6	Miami (Mia - DEF)	Bone Crushers	267.7	Top 8/Starters
180	Lawrence Tynes (NYG - K)	Bone Crushers	1270.5	Roster
2.1	Adrian Peterson (Min - RB)	Couch Potatoes2
18.8	Brandon Marshall (Mia - WR)	Couch Potatoes2
20.5	DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB)	Couch Potatoes2
37.3	Steve Smith (NYG - WR)	Couch Potatoes2
37.4	Jahvid Best (Det - RB)	Couch Potatoes2
54.1	Hakeem Nicks (NYG - WR)	Couch Potatoes2
63.1	Brent Celek (Phi - TE)	Couch Potatoes2
76.4	Jay Cutler (Chi - QB)	Couch Potatoes2
83.1	T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bal - WR)	Couch Potatoes2
84.1	Michael Bush (Oak - RB)	Couch Potatoes2
98.6	Derrick Mason (Bal - WR)	Couch Potatoes2
106.3	Montario Hardesty (Cle - RB)	Couch Potatoes2
111.3	San Francisco (SF - DEF)	Couch Potatoes2
126.8	Chad Henne (Mia - QB)	Couch Potatoes2	610.2	Bench
156.3	Heath Miller (Pit - TE)	Couch Potatoes2	309.7	Top 8/Starters
180	Mason Crosby (GB - K)	Couch Potatoes2	1256.2	Roster
6.1	Frank Gore (SF - RB)	Girlz Rule
12.2	Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR)	Girlz Rule
35.9	Matt Schaub (Hou - QB)	Girlz Rule
47.6	Joseph Addai (Ind - RB)	Girlz Rule
56.5	Jason Witten (Dal - TE)	Girlz Rule
59.2	Percy Harvin (Min - WR)	Girlz Rule
69	Terrell Owens (Cin - WR)	Girlz Rule
70.9	Joe Flacco (Bal - QB)	Girlz Rule
84.7	Carnell Williams (TB - RB)	Girlz Rule
88.4	Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR)	Girlz Rule
93.6	Visanthe Shiancoe (Min - TE)	Girlz Rule
98.2	Steve Breaston (Ari - WR)	Girlz Rule
125.8	Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)	Girlz Rule
136.4	Willis McGahee (Bal - RB)	Girlz Rule	627.1	Bench
149.8	Dallas (Dal - DEF)	Girlz Rule	357.4	Top 8/Starters
180	Josh Scobee (Jac - K)	Girlz Rule	1314.3	Roster
3.2	Ray Rice (Bal - RB)	Hey Beerman!!!
14.3	Ryan Mathews (SD - RB)	Hey Beerman!!!
27.9	Ryan Grant (GB - RB)	Hey Beerman!!!
35.7	Steve Smith (Car - WR)	Hey Beerman!!!
45.6	Chad Ochocinco (Cin - WR)	Hey Beerman!!!
47.8	Dwayne Bowe (KC - WR)	Hey Beerman!!!
63.6	Kevin Kolb (Phi - QB)	Hey Beerman!!!
88.8	New York (NYJ - DEF)	Hey Beerman!!!
92	LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ - RB)	Hey Beerman!!!
95.4	Chris Cooley (Was - TE)	Hey Beerman!!!
115.6	Darren Sproles (SD - RB)	Hey Beerman!!!
118.3	Kellen Winslow (TB - TE)	Hey Beerman!!!
120.9	Kenny Britt (Ten - WR)	Hey Beerman!!!
133.9	Nate Kaeding (SD - K)	Hey Beerman!!!	676.1	Bench
163.8	Cincinnati (Cin - DEF)	Hey Beerman!!!	326.9	Top 8/Starters
166.8	Derek Anderson (Ari - QB)	Hey Beerman!!!	1333.6	Roster
11.6	Steven Jackson (StL - RB)	Raider Maniacs
13.3	Calvin Johnson (Det - WR)	Raider Maniacs
31.2	Anquan Boldin (Bal - WR)	Raider Maniacs
36.4	LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB)	Raider Maniacs
43.3	Philip Rivers (SD - QB)	Raider Maniacs
56	C.J. Spiller (Buf - RB)	Raider Maniacs
63.7	Felix Jones (Dal - RB)	Raider Maniacs
73.4	Johnny Knox (Chi - WR)	Raider Maniacs
105.8	Zach Miller (Oak - TE)	Raider Maniacs
108.4	Darren McFadden (Oak - RB)	Raider Maniacs
118.5	Mike Williams (TB - WR)	Raider Maniacs
124.3	Matthew Stafford (Det - QB)	Raider Maniacs
130	Jabar Gaffney (Den - WR)	Raider Maniacs
137.1	New Orleans (NO - DEF)	Raider Maniacs	724.1	Bench
143.1	John Carlson (Sea - TE)	Raider Maniacs	328.9	Top 8/Starters
167.7	Rob Bironas (Ten - K)	Raider Maniacs	1363.8	Roster
7.9	Michael Turner (Atl - RB)	strikers
14.9	Miles Austin (Dal - WR)	strikers
24.6	DeSean Jackson (Phi - WR)	strikers
34.3	Tony Romo (Dal - QB)	strikers
46.2	Beanie Wells (Ari - RB)	strikers
67	Tony Gonzalez (Atl - TE)	strikers
72.8	Santana Moss (Was - WR)	strikers
73.7	Marion Barber (Dal - RB)	strikers
91.5	Matt Ryan (Atl - QB)	strikers
93.3	Thomas Jones (KC - RB)	strikers
94	Devin Aromashodu (Chi - WR)	strikers
100	Minnesota (Min - DEF)	strikers
102.7	Eddie Royal (Den - WR)	strikers
121.5	Laurence Maroney (NE - RB)	strikers	603	Bench
146.6	Garrett Hartley (NO - K)	strikers	341.4	Top 8/Starters
148	Dustin Keller (NYJ - TE)	strikers	1239	Roster
12.2	Drew Brees (NO - QB)	Sweet Home C...
16.4	Roddy White (Atl - WR)	Sweet Home C...
18.6	Peyton Manning (Ind - QB)	Sweet Home C...
26.6	Marques Colston (NO - WR)	Sweet Home C...
41.7	Matt Forte (Chi - RB)	Sweet Home C...
59.2	Hines Ward (Pit - WR)	Sweet Home C...
65.2	Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG - RB)	Sweet Home C...
77.6	Jerome Harrison (Cle - RB)	Sweet Home C...
84.3	Dez Bryant (Dal - WR)	Sweet Home C...
91.3	Robert Meachem (NO - WR)	Sweet Home C...
113.2	Devin Hester (Chi - WR)	Sweet Home C...
138.1	Dexter McCluster (KC - WR,RB)	Sweet Home C...
152.5	Jermaine Gresham (Cin - TE)	Sweet Home C...
162	Ryan Longwell (Min - K)	Sweet Home C...	741.4	Bench
165.5	Indianapolis (Ind - DEF)	Sweet Home C...	317.5	Top 8/Starters
180	Kevin Boss (NYG - TE)	Sweet Home C...	1404.4	Roster

The Morning After

2010-09-07T18:57:00.001-04:00

Well, it's the morning after. Or the weekend after depending on your perspective. Are you doing the walk of shame? Or are you pumping your fists in the air?

The Big Draft Weekend

2010-09-06T12:30:00.013-04:00

Well, we've finally made it to the big draft weekend. So far, I feel a little bit better than last year, but I haven't come away from any of my serious drafts thinking I've got the title in the bag.

Fantasy Football Librarian:
I love her web site, and when I saw the chance to get into one of her leagues, I jumped at it. Our draft was well attended which made it fun, and the folks there had a good sense of humor which really makes it my cup of tea. Two nits though; 1) the draft was s l o w. Despite a few autopicks the full clocks were used throughout, which made it painful. 2) The interface is not as user-friendly as Yahoo. But the competition was pretty good with some really solid teams coming out of that draft.

The FFL league was my first draft of the day. QB, WR,WR,RB,RB,TE,K,DEF
I drafted from the #6 slot out of 12 and I felt I got a decent team, but not a very strong one. As early as the 5th round I felt that the talent available disappeared at an alarming rate. Now this could be a function of the level of competition, or the fact that it's a 12 team league, but I just felt that I was at the mercy of the waiver wire gods from my fifth pick onwards. Keep in mind that I saw at least 3 teams I thought were downright awful, so at worst, mine was probably middle of the pack. Here's what I managed to cobble together, so you decide. By the way, the host for the league provides a free feature that rates your team/draft. My team was rated awful and was ranked #11 out 12 with no hope to make the playoffs. I wish it were a person instead of an algorithm so that I could inform it that the team it rated #1 actually fits that description it provided to a T!

Pick	Player	Expected	Actual	Points
1.06	Turner, Michael ATL RB	8	6	60
2.07	White, Roddy ATL WR	20	19	14
3.06	Schaub, Matt HOU QB	28	30	-17
4.07	Foster, Arian HOU RB	73	43	180
5.06	Davis, Vernon SFO TE	50	54	-17
6.07	Garcon, Pierre IND WR	62	67	-16
7.06	Owens, Terrell CIN WR	83	78	12
8.07	Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB	106	91	30
9.06	Berrian, Bernard MIN WR	129	102	42
10.07	Henne, Chad MIA QB	126	115	13
11.06	Edelman, Julian NEP WR	146	126	18
12.07	Henderson, Devery NOS WR	192	139	35
13.06	Huggins, Kareem TBB RB	172	150	10
14.07	Bears, Chicago CHI Def	161	163	0
15.06	Tynes, Lawrence NYG PK	192	174	2
16.07	Gerhart, Toby MIN RB	177	187	0

My thinking during this draft was just go for as many quality starters as possible, and worry about depth later. As you can see, the Schaub pick cost me dearly at WR2 or even RB2 depending on how you feel about Foster. (More on him later.) My third and 5th picks are unusual for me in that I usually like going heavy into the WR/RB before even bothering with the other positions. In this draft however, a couple of factors effected my picks: 1) There is one fewer WR/RB than a standard league, so the impact of the QB is greater. 2) With 12 teams in the league instead of my usual 10, getting a reliable high end performer at the single slots (QB/TE) is noticeably more valuable than in larger roster settings. I believe I did the right thing despite the fact that it felt wrong. Let's face it, I'm not happy if I can't go RB-RB-RB.

That draft took so long that I had to leave to go to my second draft of the day. As a result, I had queued up Chicago and Tynes, but got the Toby surprise when I checked my final results.

No Rulez: After that as a warm up, my drafting muscles were loose and I proceeded to draft a respectable team in Joni's league. I drafted out of the #8 slot in a 12 team league, and was not unhappy with the result:

Roster: QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/T, W/R, K, DEF, D, DB, DB, DL, DL,
As you can see this league has IDP, which tends to make the draft interesting once you hit the middle rounds (depending on the scoring system). I came in 11th last year, and was determined to make a better showing. It helped that I was not drafting LT or Steve Slaton this year. Here's the damage:

Redzone Renegades
1.	(8)	Michael Turner
2.	(17)	Miles Austin
3.	(32)	Jamaal Charles
4.	(41)	Anquan Boldin
5.	(56)	Jermichael Finley
6.	(65)	Michael Crabtree
7.	(80)	Eli Manning
8.	(89)	Ricky Williams
9.	(104)	Patrick Willis
10.	(113)	Jared Allen
11.	(128)	Julius Peppers
12.	(137)	Owen Daniels
13.	(152)	Jon Beason
14.	(161)	Will Smith
15.	(176)	Bernard Berrian
16.	(185)	Thomas Jones
17.	(200)	Chad Henne
18.	(209)	Davone Bess
19.	(224)	Kareem Huggins
20.	(233)	James Davis
21.	(248)	Chicago
22.	(257)	D.J. Williams
23.	(272)	Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Six rounds into the draft I was pretty happy (not ecstatic) with how things were turning out. I belatedly noticed how quickly the RBs (quality and otherwise) were disappearing, but this year I've made a concerted effort to have more balanced rosters. The interesting result is that I do have more balanced teams, but I'm uncomfortable with my RB depth. I deliberately waited on a QB in this league, and I'm not unhappy with that result either. I feel very good about my individual defensive players this year, but while I was feasting at the IDP table, a certain GM gobbled up Mike Wallace and Big Ben, both of whom were next on my list of offensive players. Ricky Williams and Bernard Berrian were sort of best available there, but the thought behind both picks is the same: they have high upside potential and the combination of the two should give me decent production at the 2nd flex.

Back Alley Knife Fight: You would think with 2 drafts under my belt already, my fantasy football juices would be flowing and ready to carry me on to a championship in one of my own leagues.

You would be wrong.

The BAKF roster is: QB,WR,WR,RB,RB,TE,W/T,W/R,K,DEF
Scoring is pretty standard with performance bonuses of 3 points for QBs at 300 yards and 5 points for WRs and RBs at 100 yards. In addition, there's 0.5 points per reception.

Now to set the stage properly, I have to admit that when I signed on and saw that I had the #1 slot, I thought I had an automatic winner.

I was wrong. Horribly, horribly wrong.

It turns out that all that mock drafting and public league drafting does not prepare you as much for what to expect as does, say, doing your own top 200 list and running a one-man draft off that list (which is what I will do next year). Those guys last night.....they were vicious! Now let's take a look at the carnage:

Angry Minnesotans
1.	(1)	Chris Johnson
2.	(20)	Jamaal Charles
3.	(21)	Greg Jennings
4.	(40)	Arian Foster
5.	(41)	Antonio Gates
6.	(60)	Jermichael Finley
7.	(61)	Mike Sims-Walker
8.	(80)	Ricky Williams
9.	(81)	Justin Forsett
10.	(100)	Eli Manning
11.	(101)	Jacoby Jones
12.	(120)	Bernard Berrian
13.	(121)	Ben Roethlisberger
14.	(140)	Julian Edelman
15.	(141)	Chicago
16.	(160)	James Davis

In all honesty my good feeling about my team disappeared around pick #15 or so (second round), when it finally dawned on me how poor even my 2nd pick would be! To be fair, Ryan Grant was available and so was Peyton Manning so it didn't have to be a total disaster, but I just seemed to be completely thrown off by the fact that Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, or Miles Austin hadn't managed to drop to me here. Instead of Charles and Jennings, the textbook picks here are Peyton and Ryan.

Then it got worse.

By the round 4/5 turn, (my next pick), the cupboard had been robbed clean! I made the sexy and trendy pick Arian Foster, and locked up the TE position with Gates. Still available were Steve Smith, Ocho, Wells, Moreno, Rivers, Stewart, Spiller, Bowe, Forte, Crabtree, and Nicks. Look, I'm not saying I made an awful pick, but with the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to get a little depressed here. For example, had I known that TEs would go so late (often they don't last through round 4!) I would have nabbed Steve Smith and an RB and eventually picked up Finley in the same spot at pick 6. But of course while you're drafting you have no way of knowing that TEs will be going late. In tonight's draft, for example, Gates could easily be gone before pick 40. But let's see just what I was thinking:

Steve - As discussed, almost certainly a mistake to pass him up. In my defense, I was still in mourning for all the WRs I really like who didn't drop to me earlier.

Ocho - Despite all the hype I am very leery of ocho this year. One of my favorite NFL players, but fantasy-wise in any format, I have him ranked below Gates.

Wells - Has taken a tumble with his recent fumbles on the field. Seemed too much of a risk for this high a pick. Hightower has shot up a lot recently too. The Cardinals backfield is a mess too expensive to sort out in the 4th round of a fantasy draft.

Moreno - One of my favorites in the summer, his injury and the questionable decision-making at pro sports franchises make me leery of taking him here. Healthy, this would be a no-brainer.

Rivers - No all-pro lineman (holdout) and no all-pro Vjax (holdout) makes me wonder who, other than the guy I drafted, is going to catch all those passes that would make Rivers a bargain here?

Stewart - RBBC. Maybe a round later, but I just wonder about right here.

Spiller - Exciting to watch in pre-season, he still plays for the bills. 7th or 8th round perhaps, but never here.

Bowe - Too hard to figure him out. Chambers did well in KC when Dwayne was suspended, and a couple years ago we saw flashes of talent, but I swear this guy is too inconsistent to spend a round 4 pick on.

Forte - I actually like Forte this year, but all the hate in the media has caused me to drop him in my rankings too! Although to be fair, if auotpick had taken him here I would not have been upset at all.

Crabtree - Holds out in rookie season, fights with the team captain season 2. Hmmmm....

Nicks - Love Nicks....not here though.

I'd like to close this particular segment with something positive for those of you who think I'm grumpy:

Steve Slaton was a top 8 RB in 2008. Go back and check the records, it's true. Arian Foster finished last year strong and has emerged over the summer as a very impressive back who now has one more year in the offense, and plays with an all-star offensive cast that will keep defenses way too busy to put 8 in the box. Add to that the inherent uncertainty in any given pick and all of sudden this pick is looking killer. Besides, his O-line is better than Forte's and oh, did I add, we get 0.5 points per reception and the guy throwing the ball is #1 yardage king Matt Schaub baby! As for Gates, he's the Peyton Manning of TEs for crying out loud and as an end-picker you will OFTEN have to reach because that's just the way serpentine drafts operate. The idea here was that while the available WRs might be decent, they couldn't "win" their slot (WR2) (With what I admitted above is the notable exception of Steve Smith). So optimal pick maybe not, I locked up a starting slot with a #1 player so this won't be a draft killer.

I think I may have to do a trade or 2 in this league, but I always did like trading anyway.

Some notes from last night's draft:

1. QBs -- There was far more restraint in taking QBs last night than what I've witnessed in other drafts. In the mid-fourth round, you could still pick up the guys bunched at QB4/QB5/QB6. Which partially explains why I was disappointed in the WR selection by my second pick.

2. TEs -- Also a lot of restraint in taking TEs, so the good ones lasted through round 6! The combination of the QB and TEs means that WR/RB were getting hammered early and often...which, oddly, is how I draft, but not what I'm used to seeing among the masses. Which brings us to:

3. Defenses and kickers - I was in total shock when I realized that the second defense did not go off the board until the 9th round!? You normally only see this in expert drafts, but last night people were actually sticking to value and passing up the shiny JETS and 49ers baubles! Same thing happened with kickers, so the bargains I'm used to getting in middle/late rounds just never appeared. I'm hoping tonight is different.

On to the next one!

So it begins!

2010-08-01T19:37:00.002-04:00

You know it's fantasy football season when.....the injuries start!!

Moreno, Hardesty, and Desean are just 3 of the names you'll already find on injury reports just one day into the official practice season. And the league is intent on moving to an 18 game schedule???!

Yeah, that's genius.

Al I know is that I have Knowshown on an obscene number of my early teams. So here's me crossing my fingers that he'll be okay. But I also want him to be okay because if he's hurt, it may force me to take the 2nd RB earlier than I planned to this year, and that would throw off my new strategy.

NHNP Season IV: Vengeance!

2010-07-24T18:06:00.005-04:00

HA! Fantasy Football is back baby!!!!

Once again, I'm in the uncomfortable position of trying to make up for the prior year's disaster. The fun begins again in September with a Labor Day weekend that might as well be called Fantasy Football Draft Weekend!

Okay, now for some NHNP-specific stuff.

Changes to league settings: NHNP

1. Bench has been shortened from 7 to 5. Shorter draft, and places more emphasis on active management. Unless I change my mind in August.

2. Roster went from 3/2/1 to 2/2/2. So you lose a pure WR slot, but it's replaced with a W/T slot. This change is subtle, but it allows folks with a TE fetish to ensconce themselves in TEs.

3. Field Goals below 40 yards are now worth 2, not 3. I know, this change is so small you might as well call it spiteful.

4. Interception penalties have been increased from -1, to -2. You can call this the cantwinagame/Jay Cutler rule.

5. Points allowed. Points for stingy defenses have been increased, special teams were left alone.

6. PPR was increased from .33333 to .35

7. Bonuses. WR and RB still earn a total of 5 points at 100 yards, but the bonus at 125 was eliminated. RBs have a new intermediate bonus at 90 however. QBs now earn their 5 point bonus earlier, now at 300 yards. Warning, even in this league last year QBs were very important, this change threatens to make them even more so.

8. Draft Order and type. The draft will be in a 3RR format following last year's order of finish, at least in terms of preference.

1. 1-10
2. 10-1
3. 10-1
4. 10-1
5. 1-10
6. 10-1...

So Willie the Groundskeeper will be rolling with CJ2K in 2010. However, if he decides he'd rather go #10, he may do so, as may the other GMs on down the line. I realize many GMs don't want to bother, and just want to be told when they draft. To make it easy, only those GMs who would rather a different slot need say so. Everyone else, just show up and draft!

1. No Homers
2. benchwarmer
3. Girlz
4. Hey Beerman!
5. cantwinagame
6. no1savedprivateryan
7. YoudaBess
8. Minnesota
9. daddypoopypants
10. New Team

9. Live Draft Bonus: Although attendance has been heartwarmingly good over the years, I'm told that "everything is about incentives." Those GMs who show up will get a $25 FAAB bonus.

10. Although it's probably inviting chaos, draft order (the whole slot, not picks) will be tradeable this year using FAAB as currency. However, as much as possible, I'll want other GMs to have a chance to bid if say, the #1 slot becomes available. Kind of like an open auction using the message board. This process will have to be wrapped up by August 29.

Now, any and all of these changes are subject to revision without notice (LOL!). But comments will be taken until around the weekend of August 13. I put quite a bit of thought into the scoring system, but I want another chance to see what it really looks like (sanity check).

Later!

I Hate Lebron James!

2010-07-21T07:26:00.005-04:00

I know, I know. Right now you're checking the url because you could have sworn you were looking for a fantasy football site. Well, you're in the right place. WARNING: this is a bit of a rant, so don't expect my usual liquid prose.

Look, I know we're a couple of weeks away from the "Decision," but this just has to be said. I have, unfortunately, lost quite a bit of the fire that initially led to me to want to post this, but after the fire, the logic remains:

1) Lepunk has every economic right to play wherever they'll pay him to play. Having said that, the facts that have been uncovered about who knew what when paint a very damning picture of Queen James. The Cavaliers did everything they could and everything he asked (including getting Antoine from the Wizards) in order to maximize their chances to win a championship. Her highness never acknowledged any of this, and in fact, wouldn't even communicate with the ownership.

2) The manner in which the announcement was made displayed an absence of class and tact of historic if not epic proportions. The Queen reinforced (that's right, it wasn't a reveal since we've seen signs of her illness before) our impression of a narcissistic, immature, self-centered, coddled ego coupled with massive insecurities.

"I'm taking my talent to South Beach...."

Are you &*#$@! serious???! Just read that again.

No class, all boasting.

3) Mark my words, in the annals of future sports history it will be Wade, not Lepunk, who will remembered as "the man." Make no mistake: no one, not the 8 year-olds, and definitely not the 25 and 60 year-olds, will confuse what just happened as anything other than Queen James running for shelter under the protection of Wade Manor. Dwayne Wade is unmistakably Batman, Bosh is, and always (in this scenario) has been Robin (not having ever been mistaken for anything other than an extremely well-paid and happy sidekick), and James at this point is Batgirl. Her inability to at the very least craft a deal in Chicago or New York, which would have been viewed as neutral venues at least, speaks volumes about her lack of leadership and backbone. Her unwillingness to go to Chicago speaks volumes about her fears and demons of not measuring up to His Airness.

4) Any way you slice it, Queen James punked out of the Celtic series. There are only two possibilities, both of them damning for the self-professed tiara-wearer.

First, as I believe, Queen James gave up during the Celtic series under the pressure of having to deal with her (by then) known upcoming announcement of the royal departure from, or abandonment of, Cleveland. Let's face it, she could not deal with a scenario where the Cavaliers win the title and she announces for Miami because....what would be the excuse then???????
Exactly!
Second, and these are by no means mutually exclusive, Lepunk was out-thought, outplayed, and out-battled, by a Celtic team that had far more heart in its 12th player, than Lepunk has in her whole 6'9" body. She succumbed under the pressure and even openly, if you track her subsequent comments, whined about not having 2 or 3 other superstars to carry the load! Hey I'm not exactly old, but when I was growing up any guy who behaved that way would have been called out and ridiculed as a sissy. And to me this is one of the most telling facts about the Queen: that she is so clearly a whiner and shockingly weak personality despite her freakish athletic ability and the promise everyone wants to see in her:

She's just a big crybaby.

And crybabies are NEVER considered in the discussions of the best in the game once their freakish athletic ability declines.

The future: I see this Miami team imploding from fragile-ego syndrome, or in Lepunk's case, fatal aggrandizement genesis. Both Boston and LA are mentally tougher, and both teams would be overwhelmingly favored by fans who will quickly tire (those of us who haven't already) of the self-congratulatory mugging of these hormone cases with gold-plated diapers.

I hate Lebron. I would even root for the Celtic or Lakers (the 2 teams I hate the most) rather than see Lebron win anything. I won't be watching games or buying gear or in any way supporting that creep. Even if they manage to win next year it will work in our favor: because I don't see Lepunk stepping up. So either way, we win: Door #1. they manage to win one, but D Wade is MVP: IMPLOSION. Door #2, they don't manage to win one, and Queen James' character is revealed: IMPLOSION.

The American Pigskin Classic is Here!

2010-06-19T12:57:00.009-04:00

Martz is not the only Mad Scientist around!

Because it is sooo early for fantasy football, I've had to spend a ton of time at espn. As a result, I caught the "Hey wouldn't it be neat if you could sort of pick a real NFL team" bug. I'm thinking of floating this idea in the Back Alley Knife Fight, but we're definitely doing this in The American Pigskin Classic, which will draft at my official start of the fantasy season, July 5, Independence Day weekend!

Update 7/21/10: We drafted on 7/5/10 and the following 10 teams were taken. It is, by design, a low-maintenance league, so very little will happen before the season, especially the bye weeks. Since the draft is probably my favorite part anyway, this suits me well.

Jacksonville Jaguars
San Fransisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints
Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons
Cleveland Browns (!)
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Dallas Cowboys
Miami Dolphins
Green Bay Packers

Now obviously, it can't just be "pick any team" without any adjustments or it wouldn't be a challenge. I mean, those poor Buccaneer fans wouldn't stand a chance in real life or fantasy! So I came up with some tweaks to balance out the obvious advantages of some NFL franchises over others. It may not be perfect, but it's as close to a level playing as I can get right now. Presto! you get to root for your favorite NFL team and play fantasy! Here's how it would work:

Four easy steps, and you're off to the races!

Select your NFL franchise. For simplicity's sake, this is done on a first-come, first-served basis. I worked out a bidding process that I thought was fair, but the early comments showed that the complexity outweighed the fun of rooting for your hometown team. So now all you do is a) register for the league, b) check the message board for unclaimed teams, and c) claim a team by posting the name on the message board for all to see.

Now that you have your franchise, d) you select any 3 of that NFL team's players, including rookies. So for example, a Jets fan could select Shonn Green, Santonio Holmes, and the Jets Defense. Ideally, you would list these players in the same message board post claiming the franchise.

Once all 10 (or 12) GMs have selected their franchise players, the commissioner will use the keeper function to assign them. The remaining players constitute the free agent pool for the draft. [Strictly speaking, this works very well with 2 players, as most NFL teams tend to have at least 2 players you wouldn't mind starting. But to honor the spirit of the idea, which is to actually feel like you're rooting for a team, I bumped this up to 3. At 4, the idea becomes unworkable on competitiveness grounds.]

For the American Pigskin Classic the franchise selection must be completed by midnight of July 2, to give everyone a chance to prepare for the draft a couple of days later. (So much for that idea!)

That's it! That's all you have to do until the draft. I included some features to the league that are intended to keep it fun and competitive, so you may want to read those before making your franchise decision.

League Structure, Features, and Rules

Power Rankings -- Power rankings are used to establish the draft order as well as the amount of the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) that we use for the waiver system. They are a combination of the fantasy star power of their players and the 2009 regular season finish of that team. To save time and effort, fantasy star power is considered for only the 10 most successful and/or popular NFL franchises (#23-#32 in the list below) while the rest of the 22 teams are ranked strictly according to their regular season finish.

Draft Priority and FAAB Based on Power Rankings

01 St. Louis Rams -$160
02 Detroit Lions - $110
03 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $160
04 Washington Redskins - $160
05 Kansas City Chiefs - $115
06 Seattle Seahawks - $160
07 Oakland Raiders - $160
08 Cleveland Browns - $140
09 Buffalo Bills - $140
10 Miami Dolphins - $90
11 Jacksonville Jaguars - $90
12 Chicago Bears - $90
13 Tennessee Titans - $125
14 San Francisco 49ers - $50
15 New York Giants - $70
16 Denver Broncos - $140
17 Pittsburgh Steelers - $70
18 New York Jets - $125
19 Atlanta Falcons - $40
20 Cincinnati Bengals - $90
21 Arizona Cardinals - $90
22 Philadelphia Eagles - $50

23 Panthers - $35
24 Baltimore Ravens - $65
25 New Orleans Saints - $25
26 San Diego Chargers - $25
27 Houston Texans - $35
28 Dallas Cowboys - $25
29 Indianapolis Colts - $25
30 New England Patriots - $25
31 Green Bay Packers - $25
32 Minnesota Vikings - $25

Power Ranking Effect on Draft Order - Teams draft in reverse order of their power ranking. For example, whoever chooses the St. Louis Rams (God bless his fuzzy little soul) will automatically pick first regardless of anyone else's selection. But whoever chooses the Vikings, (and you know someone will) automatically chooses last. Everyone else will be somewhere in between depending on the specific combination of franchises chosen.

Power Ranking Effect on FAAB - The league uses the FAAB system of acquiring free agents and players on waivers. The initial amount of your FAAB will depend on the power ranking of the team you select; the more loaded your chosen franchise is with fantasy stars, the smaller your budget. It's a little bit art and mostly science, but the amounts are listed in the table above. There will be no increase in the FAAB for the rest of the season. Should everyone run out of money during the course of the season, the waiver system will revert to the default rolling basis.

The Draft Structure is not serpentine. Every round will proceed 1-10, 1-10, 1-10, etc.

League Structure -- The league will be organized into 2 divisions, formed by using the same power rankings as the draft order, strongest to weakest. For example, if the Cowboys, Colts, Patriots, Packers, and Vikings were among the teams selected, they would be in the same division. But in any case the teams that drafted 1-5 will be in one division, and the 6-10 teams in another (same for 12 teams).

That's it! And no, I can't wait to try it!

Mini-FAQ

Eligibility - Invites and anyone reading this.
League: American Pigskin Classic (ID# 70773)

Password: peyton

Team Names - Team names should be the official name of the NFL team chosen, but I'm flexible on this.

Rules -- In addition to the posted scoring and roster settings:

a) FAAB free agent bidding rules apply...the minimum bid on free agents is $1 and the maximum FAAB budget for the season is listed in the Power Rankings table above. You must have at least $1 left in your budget to make a bid.

b) There is no trading and limited (5) free agent acquisitions are allowed for the season, so use them wisely. (Tweaked on 6/30/10, and again 7/3/10)

c) Each active roster spot must be filled with a player at all times, including Kickers and Defenses. The matchup penalty will be a 10 point reduction per open position. However, bye week players may fill active roster spots. In the ghastly event that a team is abandoned the GM will be locked out and the team managed by the commissioner. Abandoned teams are ineligible for the playoffs regardless of record. GMs absent from the live draft risk being locked out immediately.

d) Any issue not covered here or in the settings will be fairly dealt with by the Commissioner. Drafting skills and using your waiver wire claims wisely can make or break you, so for once, please pay attention to bye weeks during the draft.

Best of luck to everyone!

Yeah Baby!

2010-06-02T20:31:00.003-04:00

Fantasy Football is back baby!!!!

NFL.COM has activated its fantasy football leagues and we are off to the races!

This year promises the to be the toughest looking year for drafts. Outside of the top 6-8 at each position, I can't make head or tails of the rest. On the surface, this would seem to increase the the randomness factor in fantasy football, and that is a very bad thing. As far as I can tell, as a commissioner, the only thing I can really do to mitigate this is to focus on improving waiver wire options if possible.

Anyway, I am ready to go! Have fun everyone.

Desean Jackson Just Dropped In My Rankings!

2010-05-11T20:21:00.004-04:00

Desean Jackson was my sleeper WR last year, who I managed to nab in most of my leagues. One of the few benefits of being an Eagles fan. Anyway for as much talent as that guy has, he has always had an attitude problem, always talked too much, and always spent far too much energy show-boating (even when the Eagles were losing!). Remember the non-touchdown that he celebrated because he didn't hold on to the ball. Then there's his walking into the endzone backwards move. Even Reggie Bush has stopped doing these things. Which reminds me....

In his prime, T.O. caused a lot of fantasy football GM's to boycott him during drafts despite his obvious talent. Mostly, that turned out to be a mistake. because T.O. was a point-scoring machine despite his attitude. Desean reminds me of T.O. with one giant caveat: Desean might still be a flash in the pan. First of all, are we really certain it's all Desean, or is it possible that some of the magic was Donovan? And do you want to spend a 2nd round pick (where he's currently ranked) to find out? Second, are you really that sure about Kolb? Because the last time I checked, some pretty smart people viewed McNabb getting voted off the island as The Andy Reid Lifeboat, not as a vote of no confidence in McNabb. Kolb saw limited action against abysmal opposition, and if you look at some footage you'll see he throws a bit of wobbler out there. Third, this year's schedule is no joke, great for viewing, but no joke at all compared to last year's patsy-fest. I mean we used to make fun of the NFC north, but this year Brett, Aaron, and Jay get to take their shots at the Eagles, oh and some guy named Peyton for good measure. Fourth, too much of Desean's value is tied to the big plays, which are inherently less stable and riskier than say, possession-type receptions like Mason or Boldin would collect in their heyday. Finally, and I can not stress this enough: the Eagles did nothing to improve the offensive line (see 2009 weeks 17 and 18) and you have the makings of a GIANT bust.

Now an awful lot of people rely on these expert rankings that are currently going gaga over Jackson. I actually hope he remains highly ranked. That way I can grab Jamaal Charles with the next pick.

Drew Brees Just Dropped in My Rankings!

2010-05-01T13:52:00.004-04:00

In the battle between self-professed empiricists and those they accuse of being superstitious, I usually fall in the empiricist camp.

Not when it comes to the Madden Jinx. When it comes to the curse, I am both an empiricist and superstitious. That curse is real. It's just as real as the Logan's Run rule for running backs.

Last year they tried to break the jinx by having two people on the cover with an interesting result: Troy still got hammered, but Larry pretty much got away scot free. Troy sprained his MCL in the first half of the season opener and missed the next four games. Then, he played in three more games before injuring his PCL against the Bengals and missed more games. And unless I'm missing something, the Steelers missed the playoffs. Not exactly a stellar year.

Now Drew is tempting fate by taking the money......alone. You guys can laugh all you want, but I will not be drafting Drew this year. He has just dropped from the QB 1/2 slot to the QB 7 slot.

But yeah, I already have my rankings ready this year. Giddy up!

Oh My God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2010-04-06T20:14:00.002-04:00

So I wake up on Monday morning, and the whole world is turned upside down. Number 5 in a burgundy jersey??! There really is no loyalty anymore, and I for one hate that. On the level of class though, I very much appreciate the fact that the Eagles seemed to have allowed Donovan some say in where he ended up. Not a single person reading this can say Donovan's not going to get PAID!

Not like those scumbags in Wisconsin.

Anyway, if you're an Eagles fan, Monday morning went one of 2 ways:

1. About *&(@!$#^+ time!!!!!!!...YEAH! Look at all those yummy draft picks!

2. "You Maniacs!.. You blew it up!... ah, damn you! G** damn you all to hell!

Uh oh......

2010-04-03T10:23:00.002-04:00

1. Call me superstitious, but the latest trade by the Eagles convinced me that if they get a good offer for McNabb, he's gone. I mean, they are maybe one more trade or cut away from screaming "Rebuilding Mode."

2. Just got done trolling through a couple of early FF rankings. I was shocked to discover what a mess the WR rankings are. Funny though, at the end of the 2009 season, I thought things looked pretty settled. But with all the trades, and uncertainties at the QB position, my rankings are going to change significantly. I saw someone rank Miles Austin #1. Now that's bold even for me.

3. The RB position seems to still have big question marks in the top 10-12, but then after these last 2 years, I'm used to that. The good news is that there's a lot of depth at RB2, so I think that's where my flex will be coming from in every league.

4. Darren Sproles as an RB1? Um, I don't think so. Not in fantasy anyway.

5. (Soccer) Chelsea deserved the win today. They dominated time of possession in the first half, and still outplayed Man U despite the comeback attempt.

I'm Not Drinking the Kool Aid!

2010-04-02T14:10:00.008-04:00

"The things that happened in San Diego, everything was taken away from me," Tomlinson said. "There wasn't an emphasis on running the football anymore, my best fullback was gone, the linemen were pass blocking, and it was a passing quarterback and a passing coach. So, the situation's kind of misleading when you look on film."

Fool me once, shame on you.

Fool me twice, shame on me.

-- James Tiberius Kirk, Captain, U.S.S. Enterprise

So no, there won't be any drafting of LT this year. No believing his off-season comments about how he hasn't lost a step, or is more determined than ever, and will just use all the naysayers comments as bulletin board material to motivate him back to greatness.

No siree. Not in the first round, not in the second, the third, or the fourth. Someone's going to pick him, but it won't be me.

Number 5

2010-03-28T13:10:00.005-04:00

Well, I've been getting a lot of requests for opinions on what seems to be shaping up as McNabb-gate.

1. Yes, there has been an unusually high level of speculation, comment, or leaks from and surrounding the Eagles this off-season with respect to the fate of Donovan McNabb.

2. Yes, I do believe that Kolb's performance during the fill-in accelerated any succession plans the Eagles may have had before.

3. The implosion at the end of the season resulting in the loss of the division title as well as ending the playoff run did not help McNabb's case. Whether you consider this fair or not, he is the quarterback, and as such such will draw either the most or second-most heat for the fortunes of the team he plays on. The other guy on the hot seat in these situation would be the head coach.

4. Is there any precedent for a team dealing a Pro-Bowl caliber QB who still has gas in the tank? Hmmm, let's see: Kurt Warner and Brett Favre are the most recent examples, but Warren Moon and Randall Cunningham also come to mind.

5. What's my personal take?

It's never smart to air these things out in public. Philly is already a wicked tough sports town and all the commotion of the past few weeks can not be good for the Eagles (although better now than later). And what if you don't trade him? Makes for some hard feelings, despite what people like to think about professionalism and the widely known fact that football's a business.
Hate to say it, but it depends on what Philly gets for Donovan. If the Eagles trade McNabb and fill in a hole or two with players and good draft picks (like the all-pro safety from the Rams), then it's probably worth the gamble on Kolb. Though it would then require that the Eagles pick up another QB in this year's draft for insurance. First of all, I don't like Vick, and I don't trust him. Second, Kolb had 2 good outings that amounted to garbage time in one game and a pushover defense in the other. True, it doesn't hurt his case that he performed, but I wouldn't call that a generalizable sample.
Might have to take a page out of the Green Bay playbook. Although for full disclosure, I thought they were rat-bastards and the lowest scum for how they treated Favre (and yes, he's a diva but that was no excuse). In other words, I don't know if I can be comfortable with a deal with the Vikings or Cardinals given all the other pieces they already have in place. If we have to deal with a strong team, make it an AFC team.
Despite the fact that this may look like it makes good business sense for the Eagles, let's not confuse a possible trade with blaming McNabb for Philly's playoff difficulties. Over Mcnabb's career they have had the best record in the NFC East outside the fact that Eli has a trophy. I may not be Donovan's biggest fan, but once he's gone, that crowd in Philly is gonna ask for you to bring out another Christian.

Chiefs Add Veteran RB Jones

2010-03-09T19:15:00.001-05:00

Oops! Looks like I'll have to drop Jamaal Charles way down in my rankings. I'm not entirely sure what the Chiefs are thinking, but this doesn't bode well for Charles' fantasy value.

Eagles

2010-03-07T09:18:00.004-05:00

Someone asked me this week, what do the Eagles need. My answer will surprise many: the Eagles are the easiest team to assess going into 2010. All you need to do is to watch the last 2 games of 2009 played against the Cowboys. The Eagles were blown off the ball and thoroughly manhandled in those 2 games. Look, my cousin is an Eagles fan and the abuse that Dallas was dishing out was so intense, the domination so graphic, that he had to send his 2 teenage daughters out of the room. I sincerely believe that those two games will cause the NFL and the broadcasters to institute a rating system for games much as we have for movies. Those Eagles-Cowboys games were definitely MA (RP, V).

What do the Eagles need? In a nutshell, the Eagles need everything but a QB. Given the enormity of their needs, we'll need a list to keep track of the wounded.

CRITICAL

1. Offensive Line. Again, watch the film and you'll see that the O-line and the D-line were competing for the most pathetic performance late in a season award. And Lee majors would have been better than our $63 million man up there. But I'm not bitter.

2. Defensive Line. If Felix Jones played only against the Philadelphia Eagles, he would break every single record that LT set in his prime. Now Felix is a decent back, but he's not that good. They have GOT to improve the DTs, but also, gee, it wouldn't hurt to get Cole some help up there too. Like another pro bowl DE!

Both of the lines are in critical condition and failing, and unfortunately, I don't think the Eagles have enough draft picks to shore up both sufficiently. I also don't think they're smart enough to figure it out.

SERIOUS

3. Running Back. You'll be hearing a lot of hype this spring about Lesean "Shady" McCoy being the next coming of Brian Westbrook. Yeah. Don't believe the hype because it's coming from the same people who said that the Eagles had the best off-season going into the 2009 season and picked them to be in the Superbowl. How'd that work out?

4. Shut Down Corner. Okay, okay, you're saying who doesn't have that on their list? Well, I can think of only one team: the New York Jets.

5. Premier wide receiver. Again, the peanut gallery will point to Desean and his long-TD record setting season in only his second year....and I will point to his inconsistent performance, his continued display of pronounced immaturity, and the fact that even if I admit that he is pretty good, he is all ALONE out there. I might have suggested Boldin (again) but noooo, they weren't getting on that train. They like standing at the station with their thing in their hands too much for that. Look, with Maclin sporting a full year of development and Celek now in his magical third year with the Eagles, I'm not going to call them below average as a corps. But they're not as good and deep as they need to be given the pass-heavy nature of the offensive scheme in Philly, and given the weakness of their inside running game.

So to recap, the Eagles need a bona fide between the tackles running back so that they can a) run out the clock like they weren't able to in 2008 against the Cardinals, b) keep defenses honest, which, I might add, might have single-handedly made a game out of those two shellackings they took at the hands of their arch-rivals last year, c) control the tempo and give the defense some time to rest (see a above). On D they need some serious help in the back to make up for Dawkins' departure, and finally, they need to get back the every down big play threat that they had for one year with T.O. Basically, they need T.O. without the attitude.

Draft Plan. I have not bothered to see what collection of picks the Eagles have, because if they run to form, they'll just blow it anyway. You know, like the Redskins and free agency.

Round 1. Offensive Lineman
Round 2. Offensive Lineman
Round 3. Defensive Lineman
Round 4. Defensive Lineman
Round 5. Running Back
Round 6. DB
Round 7. DE

Raiders release longtime RB Fargas

2010-03-07T09:11:00.003-05:00

OK, things have gone from interesting to interesting. We all knew there'd be some off-season moves, happens every year. But with Thomas Jones floating around (and yes I'm saying it: he is the single over 30 back I would be willing to bet on for at least this next season) and now Justin Fargas gone, my RB board is looking positively juicy. I mean, one of the fun exercises for me at this point, is to see whether Al Davis is smart enough to pick up a passel of decent O-linemen, and no, the signs aren't promising. This is the guy who ordered the selection of Jamarcus (Sta-Puff Marshmallow Man) Russel and DHB??! If they get some linemen, DMC may yet have some draft value, if they don't, then around the 7th or 8th round or so I am grabbing Michael Bush.

Manchester City v Chelsea

2010-02-27T08:36:00.003-05:00

OK, while figuring out just how the Eagles will manage to screw up this off-season, and whether Bradford really is worth an early first-round pick, I've had to occupy myself by watching an actual sport....and the Winter Olympics just don't count.

Lampard's goal was a pretty, classic, textbook goal. A thing of elegant beauty....which was rudely followed not 3 minutes later by Tevez's hilarious goal. I mean, I was in shock, and that doesn't often happen in sports. The whole thing started with a desperate clearing attempt by Manchester City, who by the way, was being bombarded 14-2 in shots on goal in the first half. So the ball gets to around midfield when I see what I assume to be a midfielder for Chelsea head the ball badly and the thing goes backwards?! No biggie, after all, there's only one Manchester City guy up that far since all the rest of the 9 mobile players are hunkered down in prevent mode around their goalie rolling rosary beads between their fingers. I mean seriously, those guys were getting killed! Well the one guy up that far is Tevez who proceeds to take the ball in one of the few one on threes I can recall seeing. For some reason one of the defenders stayed on his outside, while the other went in. Tevez literally jukes the inside defender completely out of the way, and in so doing has also managed to make the outside defender all but irrelevant, cuts back hard for the middle and GOAL!!? What that goal lacked in elegance it more than made up for in sheer holy %^@$#ness!

Not that's not a bad start to a Saturday morning.

Westbrook Gets The Ax!!!!!!!!

2010-02-23T20:40:00.001-05:00

First LT, now Brian. Tell me our drafts won't be interesting this summer.

Just try!

Holy CRAP!!!!!!!!!

2010-02-22T21:56:00.001-05:00

"It’s now official: LaDainian Tomlinson no longer is a member of the Chargers. After nine record-setting seasons, Tomlinson was released Monday by the club, with president and CEO Dean Spanos delivering the news in a meeting with the running back. Tomlinson owns or shares 28 team records, including career rushing yards, yards from scrimmage and touchdowns. He ranks third all-time in the NFL with 153 touchdowns and eighth with 12,490 rushing yards. He was the NFL Most Valuable Player in 2006 when he scored a record 31 touchdowns. "

(San Diego Union-Tribune)

2010: The Year of the Running Back?

2010-02-20T16:43:00.003-05:00

With Chris Johnson's stellar performance, and the unexpected late season numbers from Jamaal Charles and Jerome Harrison, this summer's fantasy football drafts are going to be awful interesting. Don't get me wrong, Warner's retirement is already affecting QB and WR considerations, but the questions marks at RB are what keep me up at night. After all, all I have to do is pick my QB early and avoid Larry and Anquan to deal with the Warner fallout. But I can not overlook how badly the highly ranked RBs disappointed in 2009. That will definitely affect my drafting come summer.

Matt Forte and Steve Slaton; one-year wonders, or sophomore slumps? Knowshown Moreno, flex play or starter in 2010? Are there really enough balls to go around in Carolina for Jonathan Stewart to have draft value? And after a very promising 2008, will Pierre Thomas live up to last year's high ADP? What about Lesean Mccoy in Philly? Will he get the keys to the car, or is that a RBBC in the making over there with Weaver? And can someone please explain what happened with Brandon Jacobs last year? He came in with the highest per game fantasy average for an RB (when he played anyway) to permanent bench status in 2009. Finally, Thomas Jones may have been the biggest bargain in last year's draft, but would you be pushing your luck to scoop him up this year?

It's February, so I don't have answers to these questions yet. But come draft time, I will. Although I can tell you that right now I'm facing the odd prospect of going back to the SRBDT as a way to mitigate the unpredictability at the position.

Oh joy!

Hmmm.....I told you so!

2010-02-08T12:36:00.002-05:00

Looks like sitting the Colts during the regular season to "preserve the players for the Super Bowl" was just as idiotic last night as I said it was when it first happened. Peyton was robbed and the Colts players were robbed. The Patriots, much as I hate them, did the right thing when they played everyone and went 16-0. Go ahead and try to convince me that the Colts wouldn't have had just a tad more intensity out there had they come into Miami 18-0. Now am I saying that that was the reason they lost?

Actually, yes. Yes I am!!!!!!!

I like Drew Brees though, so it's not exactly an awful outcome.

BAKF: The 2009 Awards

2010-01-04T10:44:00.006-05:00

Back Alley Knife Fight

League Champion: Girlz (Wielder of the Rusty Dagger)
Second Place: Bone Crushers
Third Place: Angry Minnesotans
League High Scorer: Bone Crushers
Golden Doughnut: Bone Crushers & Angry Minnesotans (tie)
The Rodney King Beatdown Award: Bone Crushers & Sickkk (tie)

Once again this league turned out be fun and competitive and the standings came down to the very last game of the season. So 2009 resembled 2008 a lot in the sense that 5 or 6 teams were battling it out until the very end. The bad news is that in 2009 the league had more teams so the inactive owners were something of a drag.

This turned out to be an insane year for Girlz, who competed in 3 leagues with me and managed a third, second, and in this league, first place finish in 2009. Don't worry, I'm planning a comeback in 2010. Bone Crushers had an explosive team this year that recorded at least 2 if not 3 of the year's highest scores. Bench Warmer threatened to repeat as champion with a 4-0 start to the season and then ran into the bye-week blues. He then finished off the season very strong with 5 straight wins.

For next year, I still like this format that takes us deep into the season but if the league has to be smaller to insure quality owners, it may have to go from 10 teams to 8.

Enjoy the NFL playoffs and hope to see you in the 2010 season!

Abandoned Teams

2009-12-30T17:49:00.004-05:00

One of the few unpleasant aspects of fantasy football is the fact that GMs abandon teams. Sometimes people are active until they see no chance at the playoffs, but sometimes they seem to draft teams just for practice and abandon them right away. One of the easiest fixes is to have an entry fee, which, in theory anyway, should insure that the GM stays active to get his money's worth. Sometimes this is not an option. This leads to a dilemma; do you leave those teams with empty roster slots and players who are on IR, or do you make roster changes every week? And yes, for the techies among you, this brings to mind shades of the Prime Directive. One way is just no fun, as in the Back Alley Knife Fight, where every game should count, but those of us facing the dead teams know we have an automatic win. On the flip side I'm in a league where the commissioner makes the roster adjustments and although I don't think he did anything wrong, I did feel a little weird when he adjusted my opponent's roster the week I was playing them in a playoff run. Unfortunately I don't have a fix for this. I just know that a nice handful of GMs are not getting re-invited next year. In one of my leagues, it could be half the owners! And if this should happen again, I think I will err on the side of interference, because watching pathetic line-ups late in the season is too demoralizing.

The Late Drafts Experiment: Wow!

2009-12-29T18:19:00.003-05:00

This year I had more time on my hands than I expected around playoff time (ahem). So I took a closer look at my performance this year. Specifically, I wanted to see whether the time of year the teams are drafted affected my performance.

Um, you might want to be sitting for this.

Team: Regular Season Placement/Championship Placement

Team 1: 1/1
Team 2: 1/1
Team 3: 1/1
Team 4: 1/1
Team 5: 1/1
Team 6: 3/1
Team 7: 3/1
Team 8: 4/1
Team 9: 3/2
Team A: 3/2
Team B: 4/2
Team C: 5
Team D: 6
Team E: 9

Summary Results: I drafted 14 teams after the scoring for week 1 had been completed, with the bulk of the teams drafted after week 4 had been closed. Out of the 14 teams drafted, 11 made the playoffs, and all 11 teams reached the championship game. Only 3 of the 11 teams lost their championship game, and one was by 0.02 points. A total of 3 of the original 14 teams drafted did not make the playoffs, all of those teams were abandoned as soon as this was clear and in all such cases the league was public. All of the teams drafted in private leagues, um, kicked ass. While I can not produce an exact Yahoo rating from this, I know for a fact that it would be north of 96%, having seen the records of people who had ratings around that figure.

Conclusion: Since this experiment was not conducted in a controlled environment, it may be a little reckless to generalize from these results for overall fantasy football purposes. However, since this is not a peer-reviewed journal, I'm just going to let it rip: The later in the season that I draft a fantasy football team, the better I do.

Speculation: Now for the why. I mean, to many people it may not be obvious why I, or anyone else for that matter, might perform better with a later drafted team. I have only one theory about why the later drafts so heavily favor me. Four games into the season we have more than just the pre-season projections and speculations from camp. We have honest-to-goodness, real and real-time data on how individuals and teams are doing. As far as I can tell, I have made better use of this information than the GMs I have drafted against. Oddly, it also implies that I have been more flexible in accepting and incorporating this data into my rankings than others have. (A charge not usually leveled against me.) The result is that opposing GMs are sticking with projections and rankings that are outdated, leaving very valuable players around for me to draft.

And yes, in 2010, I'd like to push back at least one of my drafts to see if it works with real GMs.

NHNP: Our First 2-time Champion: No Homers III

2009-12-29T09:44:00.005-05:00

The NHNP League completed it's third season last night. As much as I was rooting for bench warmer to protect my place in the record books, No Homers managed a victory that gave him his second title, as well as his second consecutive title! Bench warmer grabs second place, and Girlz snagged the bronze to take her place in the fantasy football pantheon.

Now in a sport/game where a number of people have annual arguments over the luck versus skill aspects of fantasy, I'd like to give a lot of credit to No Homers and Girlz for the small pile of hardware they're building up. I've adjusted the Dec 19 post on the annual awards for the league to reflect last night's results, and I've also finalized my Christmas Day 2010 rankings.

It was another fun year in fantasy and I hope to see everyone in 2010!

Happy New Year!

Death by 1000 cuts!

2009-12-28T23:41:00.000-05:00

Now Sidney Rice just got a TD. I'm toast!

Well, there's always 2010!

It's all slipping away!

2009-12-28T23:19:00.001-05:00

Now AP has ANOTHER touchdown! Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!!!

The Chicago secondary is killing me!

2009-12-28T22:26:00.002-05:00

As soon as I saw that pass interference in the endzone, I knew it would mean points for AP!! This could cost me a fantasy football title!!!!!

I'd rather be lucky than good!: The Skill v. Luck Argument in Fantasy Football

2009-12-28T18:49:00.010-05:00

Admit it. In your worst moments or seasons, you've despaired that fantasy football had to be a game of luck or totally lacking in fairness. After all, you didn't win the championship!

My opinion is that while luck is a significant part of fantasy football, it is not the dominant feature. Everyone knows that on a week to week basis, you can lose due to match-ups and crazy games from Chris Johnson who, of course, is on the other guy's team. However, over the course of a season, or several teams, skill plays the greatest role. My personal test of whether this is so is the fact that in general, people's overall records tend to be consistent. True, in any given year (like 2009 for me) someone can have a horrible record, but over the course of many seasons and teams, people's skill levels tend to be revealed by the long-run track records.

Fantasy football is subject to a number of factors that tend to increase the element of chance:

Head to Head Format. The single biggest element of chance is the head to head format that occasionally results in the 3rd highest scoring team that week losing a game, or the #1 seed losing to the last place playoff seed because Peyton was benched. As long as this is not a common occurrence, it mimics real life and provides an element of surprise that many GMs actually find fun.

Injuries. While there are certain players more prone to injuries than others (Brian Westbrook), a prepared GM will factor this into his draft plan. But there are also freak injuries like the knee injuries to Carson Palmer and Tom Brady that just can't be planned for.
Freak Disappointments. Why did Matt Forte perform so poorly this year? I haven't seen anyone give a definitive answer to this question. So when you blow a top 5 pick on him in 2009, was it because you were a bad GM, or unlucky? I'd say door #2.
Outlier Performances. When Chris Johnson goes for over 290 total yards and multiple touchdowns you really want to either have him on your team, or not be involved in the incident. Now in your average league, everyone will have a player or players who have games like this, so it probably evens out over the season. So maybe you didn't have Chris Johnson, but you had Randy Moss who just this weekend grabbed like 3 TDs.
Skill Parity. One factor that not enough people consider, is skill parity. If you are in a league that consists of all veteran, active, managers then like it or not, random chance has just become a bigger factor in the outcome of your season. If this isn't intuitive, think back to your public league days when virtually every team you drafted made it to the playoffs every year. You probably were one of only 2 or 3 GMs who showed up for the live draft. You got your pick of sleepers, dodged the late injuries from pre-season camps and games (like Westbrook who was ranked #5 on draft day even after it was clear he would miss much of the season), and were able to wait on a number of deep sleepers because all those autodraft teams were using rankings that were not up to date. That was the opposite extreme of a competitive private league where everyone shows up, has done their homework, and is more likely to agree with your rankings than the default rankings. In other words, your competition is much more like you. So of course, luck becomes a bigger factor. (*Do not mistake this for the idea that you should then throw up your hands in despair and use autodraft. In a competitive league, the increased weight of chance is based on the assumption of active and competent management. In other words, if you tried to coast you would be toast in a major way.)

As fantasy football GMs and commissioners, it's our job to find ways to minimize the random element in fantasy football. The best defense against randomness is activity. For example, you want to make sure that by design and membership, your league is not won by an abandoned team (I call them dead). You know the type, the guy who never makes a transaction, doesn't manage his bye weeks, doesn't trade, and doesn't make any posts. Now that guy, if the GMs and commissioner have done their jobs, should never make the playoffs. I am quite proud that in the leagues I manage, those guys never do. I've seen plenty of leagues where that's not true. So while the necessity of active management does not eliminate randomness from a league, it does significantly increase the sense of meritocracy and fairness associated with the outcomes in the leagues.

So what can we do about the chance factor?

Head to Head. The best quote I've seen about this problem is one I stole from the web (I apologize for not remembering the author.) The quote is:

"Total points, more fair. Head to head, more fun."

It's that simple. Almost every FF GM I know is aware that total points might be the most fair system because it does away with the possibility that you score the 2nd most points in a given week, and still lose. But these same GMs admit that it's a LOT more fun to be playing "a game" every week. My solution to this problem is to reward point scoring in whatever reward or payoff system you use. Also, since many of us believe that success in fantasy football over the long run is a matter of skill, to maximize the skill aspect we want the longest possible regular season. At the extreme this boils down to 17 weeks, meaning no playoffs! The Back Alley Knife Fight league is set up in just such a manner. Sure, you don't get to look at your team in those neat brackets, but your 11-3 team doesn't lose to that last minute, half-managed 7-7 entry either!

Injuries and Freak Disappointments. My solution to both is to draft for depth and count on having to use that depth. So making sure the bench sizes are reasonable is a priority here. In my 10 team leagues, I prefer a minimum of 5, but am more comfortable with 6 or 7 bench slots.

Outlier Performances. My solution to this problem has always been to have bigger rosters. That way, outlier performances are less likely to determine the outcome of an entire game. I like formats that allow some combination of 6 RBs and WRs (3WR, 2RB, 1RB/WR or 2WR, 2RB, 2 RB/WR) in addition to a TE as opposed to just 5 (like ESPN; 2WR, 2RB, 1RB/WR).

Skill Parity. This one is my favorite. As a GM, the only way to compensate for people who are as smart as you are is to outwork them. You have to manage your injuries, watch the waiver wire and trends in the NFL, play match-ups with certain roster positions (like Defense) and all-around just hustle. As commissioners, the challenge is to design rosters that are large enough to have enough bench space for good planners and drafters, but small enough to retain enough waiver wire gold to reward active managers during the season. Also, the addition of roster slots like IDP, for example, can definitely reward active managers and punish slackers. Individual Defensive Players are never properly ranked in the autodraft systems, so only prepared managers are likely to fare well on draft day. Secondly, IDPs get injured so often, that anyone just leaving their draft day players in the slots all year would almost certainly have a losing record if the IDP scoring is significant.

In closing, success in fantasy football is a mixture of luck and skill, but in the better leagues it's more a matter of skill than luck, and there are a number of things we can do to maximize the role of skill while minimizing random chance.

Peyton Was Robbed!!!!!

2009-12-28T09:55:00.004-05:00

Did anyone else see the footage of how Peyton looked as the Colts' lead evaporated with the starters on the sideline? The coach was 100% wrong in not doing everything they could to win. History shows that teams that lose their momentum this way do not win the Superbowl. Period. I believe that the psychological blow to the players is not something the Colts will recover from. You do not devalue the effort and deflate and demotivate the spirit of a bunch of guys who have worked as hard as they did during the pre-season and this whole year by arbitrarily deciding that THIS game is any less valuable to them as any other. You just don't do that. Lombardi wouldn't have. The fact is that their chance at history was a VERY big deal to the players. I think a lot of folks, including the head coach, are completely clueless about what this has done to morale and how bad the backlash will be. You mark my words, but if the Colts do not at least make the Superbowl 1) the spring, and summer are not going to be fun in Indy, 2) the head coach will have to go, and/or 3) you heard it here first, but the Colts will not make the playoffs in 2010.

This was bad. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. The coach cheated those players, and robbed them of their pride and the fruits of their efforts.

My Early 2010 Rankings

2009-12-25T19:56:00.009-05:00

As some of you know, I consider the first 13 to 14 weeks the most important in terms of evaluating performance and making plans for your next draft. The guy who is #1 at his position in the months of December and January over the last 5 years is useless to me if he's #39 from September through November. Anyway, since I am unusually idle this Holiday season, I thought I'd take a stab at the 2010 rankings.

QB

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Peyton
3. Tom

4. Drew
5. Philip
6. Matt
7. Ben

8. Tony
9. Donovan
10. Eli

No one else will rank Aaron this high. Me, I'm a slave to the numbers so I like him as #1. Peyton and Tom have to be there because the 3 or 4 year numbers will show they belong. After that, it turns into a free for all. Are Drew's last few games indicative of what we'll see in 2010, or is this just a slump? Will Big Ben really have back to back top 10 years? He never has before. Can Schaub stay healthy for another year? How about Donovan? And will the Cowboys completely implode, leaving Romo owners crying in their beer? Right now, I am not comfortable with half those names. I want to emphasize that Schaub and Roethlisberger are having GREAT years in 2009, and their numbers actually warrant a higher rank. I had to lower them only because they haven't proved they can do this consistently, which is the same reason Peyton, Tom, and Drew are ranked a little higher than their raw 2009 numbers would justify. In summary, I'd be perfectly happy with any of the top 7 guys next year. If I get stuck with the bottom 3, I had better have snagged some really good values at RB/WR to compensate.

RB

1. CJ
2. AP
3. MJD
4. RR
5. FG

6. Steven Jackson
7. Ronnie Brown
8. Deangelo Williams
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Jamaal Charles

11. Benson
12. Turner
13. Grant
14. Wells
15. Thomas

16. Addai
17. Moreno
18. Harrison
19. Jones
20. Smith

Addai and Jones are currently in the top 10 in 2009 performance but come with question marks. Donald Brown will have had a full year with the offense by 2010 and lest we forget, Addai has a durability problem that has been masked by his very good performance this year. As for TJ, easily one of my favorite real world athletes, I'm sorry, but I have to invoke the Logan Run rule as well as point to the firm of Washington & Greene. You may also have to adjust Gore's rank downwards a bit, as he hasn't been available for as many starts as the others in the top 10. I'm tempted to rank Moreno higher and would have, were it not for the 2nd law of fantasy football: Never trust a Denver RB! Or more precisely, never trust the Denver head coach to be rational about managing his running backs. It may be too soon to see if Jerome Harrison is the real deal but I like the early indications, and I like what the Browns are doing late in their lost season. Jamaal Charles will be ranked lower on all the official listings than he is here. There will be some legitimate concerns, which I share, about the Chiefs offense and whether Cassel 2010 will be more of the 2008 vintage, or 2009. But these guys now have Chris Chambers, Dwayne Bowe, Cassel with a full year in the offense, and a legit talent in Charles. I'll probably be grabbing him earlier than his "expert" ranking indicates. Finally, Michael Turner will likely be a consensus top 10 or even top 5. I think he's good, but I was burned at the RB position this year (by his former teammate no less), so I will be a little shy to rank him higher than you see him here.

WR

1. Andre
2. Reggie
3. Randy
4. Wes
5. Larry

6. Brandon
7. Vincent
8. Miles
9. Desean
10. Roddy

11. Marques
12. Ocho
13. Greg
14. Steve (CAR)
15. Santonio

16. Mike Sims-Walker
17. Dwayne
18. Calvin
19. Anquan
20. Steve (NYG)

I heard an unfounded rumor in the barbershop that TO is going to the Patriots. If that happens, it won't affect the WR ratings, but you might have to bump up Tom a slot or 2. I have Larry ranked 5 because I feel I have to, but I don't feel as confident about the Cardinal offense as I did last year. Also, Kurt is another year older and no guarantee to return, much less at his 2008 form in 2010. If Fitzgerald's the next name on my cheat sheet on draft day, I'll probably skip down to the next WR. Miles Austin and Desean Jackson will probably not make anyone else's top 10 in next year's draft, but I have a hard time thinking that Romo's going to want to change much and at the rate that Macklin and McCoy are developing in Philly, defenses are going to have a tough time double-teaming Desean. As for Calvin and Anquan, a lot of folks will be ranking them much higher, but I consider them high risk. Injury aside, I find it unsettling that Stafford and Megatron didn't have better chemistry, and that the carousel of QBs in 2008 gave Megatron far superior numbers than did the number 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. As for Boldin, you've seen my earlier comments on Warner. Now add to that the injury and contract issues, and Boldin (who burned me big time this year) becomes too much of a risk for a high draft pick. Finally, Steve Smith (CAR) is not normally that high on my draft boards but numbers don't lie. And what the numbers tell me is that Moore is a better QB than Delhomme... SHOCKER!

TE

1. Dallas Clark
2. Vernon Davis
3. Brent Celek

4. Owen Daniels
5. Antonio Gates
6. Tony Gonzalez
7. Chris Cooley
8. Kellen Winslow
9. Jason Witten
10. Visanthe Shiancoe

In most leagues Celek and Davis were available on the waiver wire. In a year where so many of my decisions went awry, my predilection for waiting on TEs paid off in every league. This position is notoriously unpredictable and 2009 was no exception. Right now, I'd say the top 3 plus Antonio and Jermichael (not shown above) may deserve serious consideration for spending a 6th or 7th round pick. For everyone else, I'd wait until round 11 or 12 because you're throwing a dart.

Let's see how this ranking survives the Spring!

Back Alley Knife Fight: The Desperate Brawl for the Rusty Dagger!

2009-12-21T12:50:00.002-05:00

Once again, the BAKF is going down to the final games. Unfortunately for yours truly, the schedule works against me. Here's how we entered week 15.

1.	Girlz Rule	11-3-0	.786	1783.84	W-2	6	17
2.	SICKKK	10-4-0	.714	1931.86	L-1	7	14
3.	Bone Crushers	9-5-0	.643	1958.42	L-2	10	18
4.	Angry Minnesotans	9-5-0	.643	1831.50	W-5	9	25
5.	bench warmer	9-5-0	.643	1804.92	W-2	5	8

Here's how we're likely to come out of it:

1. Girlz 11-4
2. Sickkk 10-5
3. Bone Crushers 10-5
4. Angry Minnesotans 10-5
5. bench warmer 10-5

I did my job this week by beating Girlz, but it looks like it won't be enough. Looking at weeks 16 and 17, I'd say that Girlz will be wearing the crown when the dust settles and the bleeding stops. How did I get there? Let's take a look:

Week 16: Dec 22 - Dec 28 Printable Version

Angry Minnesotans	0.00	Match Up
Forte Ounce	0.00	Match Up

bench warmer	0.00	Match Up
Awesome123	0.00	Match Up

TailGaterZ	0.00	Match Up
SICKKK	0.00	Match Up

Bone Crushers	0.00	Match Up
IUEC Local 71 Miami	0.00	Match Up

SheriffGonnaGetcha	0.00
Girlz Rule	0.00

Week 16

Minnesota and bench warmer play teams with losing streaks that will be 7 and 3 games long respectively, rank in the bottom 3 in scoring, and do not appear to be actively managed. Forty Ounce last checked in in October and Awesome in September?! So make us 11-5 barring bad luck.

Sickkk plays TailgeterZ in week 16, and while TailgaterZ is doing better in other leagues, he's 1-13 here! So, much as I might wish for a different outcome, that's looking like a W for my competition. Figure Sickkk goes 11-5.

When Bonecrusher faces the Union team in week 16, he may have the best chance of losing out of the rest of us. That's because the IUEC Local 71 Miami sports a very good line-up and the GM was active as recently as December 10. Bonecrusher should probably still be favored here, but you never know. Just to be cautious, let's say he pulls it out: 11-5.

Girlz has a week 16 that looks just like Bonecrushers. The Sheriff has a very good team and last checked-in about a week ago. If he sets a line-up, I figure he has at least a 50-50 chance of winning. But again, if we use the most recent past as a baseline, we probably have to count on Girlz winning. This means she automatically gets to tie with someone else and wait for the tie-breaker, which will probably be points. Girlz 12-4.

So:

1. Girlz 12-4
2. Sickkk 11-5
3. Bone Crushers 11-5
4. Angry Minnesotans 11-5
5. bench warmer 11-5

Which brings us to Week 17:

Week 17: Dec 29 - Jan 3 Printable Version

Angry Minnesotans	0.00	Match Up
IUEC Local 71 Miami	0.00	Match Up

bench warmer	0.00	Match Up
SheriffGonnaGetcha	0.00	Match Up

TailGaterZ	0.00	Match Up
Awesome123	0.00	Match Up

Bone Crushers	0.00	Match Up
SICKKK	0.00	Match Up

Forte Ounce	0.00	Match Up
Girlz Rule	0.00	Match Up

Using the same assumptions as above, we have:

Angry Minnesotans: W, 12-5
bench warmer: W, 12-5
Girlz: W, 13-4 (League Champion)
Bone Crushers and Sickkk have the dubious distinction of having the toughest match-up for the last game of the season. One of them will go 12-5, and the other will finish 5th. Let's face it, the key in Week 17 is the Girlz match-up, and by that standard she has a bye-week.

But I'm not giving up hope. There's always blind, random luck!

NHNP: The 2009 Regular Season Awards

2009-12-19T18:13:00.016-05:00

The Year in Fantasy Football 2009

Bad Year

In breaking news, I'm announcing that I've had a horrible fantasy football year. Maybe later, after the rescue teams extract me from my blizzard-covered dwelling, I'll do a post on what happened to me. For now, on to more exciting things.

FF Surprises

The bench warmer and Hey Beerman!!! made their long awaited appearances in the playoffs this year. Beerman toyed with the rest of us and kept us in suspense until the very last minute of the very last game of the regular season. Girlz makes her second appearance in three years and was in the running for the regular season crown pretty much the whole year. She has also made the playoffs in all the other leagues we compete in. And rounding out the order is No Homers, who is now poised to be the first repeat champion in the league. Needless to say, I'm pretty much rooting for anyone else here.

LOL

QBs

Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers (My #1 QB for 2009)
Peyton
Brady
Schaub
Romo
Favre
Rivers
Roethlisberger
Eli

MIA

Jay Cutler
Warner
McNabb
Cassel
Garrard
Pennington

For the second year in a row, Drew is the man, in terms of points (weeks 1-14). The Beerman stole my playbook in picking Drew. I had threatened to do just that this year but was captive to my (RB/WR-heavy) nature. As I recounted in my post-draft post, No Homers snagged Rodgers away JUST before I was about to pick the QB. Fantasy-wise, Rodgers is actually my top-ranked QB this year as he scores in the top 3, but has the fewest bad games. I do not think it's a coincidence that the top 3 QBs led their teams to fantasy playoff berths. Girlz is the only playoff team without the benefit of a top 10 QB. And yes, I will actually follow through on a more QB centered draft strategy next year.

I'd like to take credit for calling the Schaub thing. He was a great value in the drafts this year. The biggest surprises to me were Big Ben, Brett, and ......Eli?????? There is no way I would have figured these guys for top 10 at the beginning of the year. I'm still shocked. Of the 3 however, the only one I would trust with even a middle-round pick in 2010 is Ben. I think of the Steelers as a genetically run-first team, but those stats don't lie. Unless they beef up their O-line and draft another bruising RB, this aerial thing may be more than a fling. (UPDATE 12/21: Big Ben threw for over 500 yards this weekend. End of discussion.) Missing from the top 10 are Cutler, Warner and McNabb. Cutler's prospects will rest on what happens in the off-season. The Bear simply have so many holes to fill, that I can not see spending a serious pick on Jay. Kurt has a virtual headstone atop his head, while Donovan may actually be worth picking next year based on the flashes we've seen with his new toys.

RBs

Chris Johnson
MJD
Petereson
Rice (My #2 RB for 2009)
SJ
TJ
Ricky
Deangelo
Gore
Grant

MIA

Turner
Forte
TJ
LT
Slaton
Westbrook
Portis

For my money, Chris Johnson has inherited the red cape with the S from LaDainian Tomlinson. He will go into the 2010 fantasy draft as my #1 ranked RB, and probably my #2 ranked player. Over the last 8 weeks of the regular season he has been flawless, scoring in the top 10 each and every start. Ray Rice is one of the biggest surprise on this list (and would have been the biggest were it not for puff the magic dragon). With the Raven backfield so crowded going into this season, many of us had to gamble on taking Ray. Things got worse for Rice owners over the first few weeks when Willis was actually vulturing more points than the starter was scoring! I saw a number of rash (in hindsight) trades occur around that time. Live and learn. Rice was definitely on my radar but was stolen by a GM who shall not be named. Next comes Steven Jackson, whose talent is so undeniable, that even on the worst team in the league SJ gave his owners a top 5 year!? He's ridiculous, and deserves to be on a better team. Even though 99% of fantasy football fans do not know this, it's worth noting that over the last 8 weeks, Steven Jackson has been the third most reliable RB in the league behind only a delirious Chris Johnson and a surprising Ray Rice.

Easily the second or third best best bargain in this year's RB draft was Thomas Jones, who returns to the top 10 for the second year in a row. He dropped tremendously in pre-season because the overheated sports press were so fixated on Leon Washington and Shonn Greene, that they overlooked a guy who came in with 1,500/15. Give me a break. He didn't get enough love in Chicago, and he still doesn't today. All this guy does is move chains and score touchdowns. If he's so awful, please trade him to the Eagles. Please!

The next player has GOT to be a typo: Ricky Williams? Isn't he dead or in Canada? All I can say here is that the Wildcat is Brown and Williams' owners friendly. Period. As for next year, no thank you. If it weren't for the fact that Ricky was probably a waiver wire pick-up, I'm not sure even the GM's who got him would have bothered. I'll probably be wrong on this, but I'm writing off this 2009 wonder as a fluke.

And who didn't make the dance in 2009? Turner got hurt, but was struggling even before the injuries. I will probably avoid him in 2010 drafts. Forte was not able to follow-up on a tremendous rookie season. A porous O-line is an RB's worst enemy. As with Cutler, you'll want to pay attention to what the Bears do about the line in the off-season before even thinking of pulling the trigger on Matty boy. Next we have my biggest drafting mistake in 2009: LT. If you watch Charger games, their blocking is not what it used to be and LT is a little bit slower. It is an unfortunate combination that has tanked my season in multiple leagues. I don't want to go as far as swearing off RBs over 30 but......

Steve Slaton joins the hall of shame in 2009. Many fantasy owners were looking for big things from Mr. Slaton and got the big Bupkus instead. He was a virtuoso fumbling machine who lacked the explosiveness of his rookie year. And yes, he was another one of my 2009 mistakes. Although Girlz called this guy right on the nose this summer. She couldn't articulate why, but she didn't trust him. I won't make that mistake twice.

Brian Westbrook of my formerly beloved Eagles. I called him, and Mr. 19 million disguises (Portis) correctly this summer in saying that they were broken down and ready for the scrap heap.

WR

Andre
Reggie
Randy
Wes
Brandon
Larry
Desean
Miles
Vincent
(The) Steve Smith

MIA

Calvin
Greg
Roddy
Steve
Anquan
Antonio
Terrel

Andre Johnson is a beast. I'm very proud to have predicted a great year for him and think there should be more to come from him in the future. But after the top 3 here, and Larry, notice how alien the list looks. Welker should have been top 20 or 15, not top 5. Over the year AND the last 8 weeks, Welker has also been top 5 in reliability, which means that he should have been one of the first 10 WRs selected in the 2009 fantasy draft (actually his performance clearly warrants a top 5 pick). Brandon Marshall should probably have been at the same spot he's earned, but on a different team. I'm still not drafting him next year, because I don't trust Orton and I don't trust Josh. Desean Jackson is more than just a mild surprise, he's a cattle prod in an unmentionable place. As is Miles Austin. I'm pretty sure the line is: Who are those guys? Well, I'll tell you. Both of those guys are also top 3 in week to week scoring reliability. Jackson should stay in your top 20 rankings for next year's draft, and will probably be ranked by the experts in the top 12. Austin, I'm not so sure, but I bet they both go a LOT higher in the 2010 draft than they did this year. Vincent Jackson should be moved up to your top 10 rankings, but that's just me. As for the real Steve Smith, what can I say, he's an SC product. From what I have seen of the Giants this year he appears to have become the possession receiver in that offense, which warrants a top 20 ranking for 2010. But all around, a rather surprising collection of names in the top 10. If you look carefully, the RBs had more consistency between 2008 and 2009 at the top of the heap than did the WRs. A turnaround from last year with 2007-2008.

As for the MIAs, T.O. is over and done, and should never have been ranked as highly as he was in the preseason. Calvin should probably stay in the top 20 rankings as the Lions (hopefully) improve. Jennings should only stay in the top 20 if Green Bay does something about that O-line. (Yes, it's a familiar theme.) I never trusted Antonio Bryant, and I was right. (Makes up for my being wrong about Jennings.) The original Steve Smith suffers from playing with a non-NFL caliber QB. I would not rank him in the top 20 next year. He's done. Anquan Boldin should also not be ranked in the top 20 in 2010 unless he's been traded to a decent or good team. Warner's days are over, and much as I love SC, Leinart is not the cure for what ails the Cardinals. Finally, we come to Roddy White, whose bad year is a surprise to me. I have no explanation for the bad year. Of course Ryan was hurt and then Turner was hurt, but early on, everyone was healthy and they still didn't click. If you subscribe to the alternating year theory of the Atlanta Falcons however, then you want to pick up Roddy as a WR1 or WR2 in 2010 because this was definitely a DOWN year.

League Awards for 2009

No Helmets No Pads
League Champion: No Homers (2nd consecutive title) (12/29/09)
Second Place: bench warmer (12/29/09)
Third Place: Girlz (12/29/09)

Regular Season Champion: bench warmer*
League High Scorer: No Homers
Golden Doughnut: No Homers (Most high scores)
Most Improved: Hey Beerman!!!
The Rodney King Beatdown Award: No Homers (Most blowouts)
The Mummy's Hand: no1savedPRivateRyan (Week 14 against No Homers)

NHNP was again an extremely competitive, dangerous league. This was our first year using a divisional format. It was fun, but there were some unexpected quirks. For example, division 1 (and we really do have to come up with better names) sported the three highest scoring teams in the entire league. And while I am aware that this happens across the fantasy universe and even in real life, it can look a little odd to the guys in 3rd, 4th and 5th place in the strong division. This year saw bench warmer and Hey Beerman!!! make their first playoff appearances, while Girlz and No Homers put a second notch on their belts. The new teams promise to make things exciting for 2010. A fun little factoid, but in the first two seasons of the NHNP league, the team that finished in first place in the regular season also won the playoff title. We'll have to see if this makes 3 in a row. I forgot to add the 2009 Mummy's Hand Award for a significant victory by a team that is out of contention, a.k.a Good Sportsmanship award for teams that might otherwise quit. This year's award goes to no1savedPrivateRyan for a week 14 victory against the then #1 overall seed No Homers. I like the fact that PrivateRyan kept setting a line-up even after he determined he was out of the playoffs. In year's past, the Mummy's Hand winner has actually knocked teams out of contention with their late season victories in the NHNP and the Back Alley Knife Fight league.

*After sticking through 2 brutal years in the NHNP league, bench warmer came up with a richly deserved top overall seed for the playoffs. The purists will note however, that at 10-4 bench warmer and No Homers tied for best record, and No Homers scored the most points. Had the NHNP not switched to a divisional format, No Homers would have been the top seed in the playoffs and regular season champion.